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Concern growing over tropical potential in the Caribbean
AccuWeather
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11/9/2023
AccuWeather meteorologists say there is the potential for a late-season tropical system to develop in the Caribbean by the middle of the month, just weeks before the hurricane season concludes on Nov. 30.
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00:00
We're closing on the end of the hurricane season.
00:04
Really, once you get past November 15th, it's very hard to get any tropical systems.
00:09
You can see when you look at the timing of the hurricane season here.
00:12
We've been on the downward trend since September 10th.
00:15
And again, by the time you get into mid-November, very difficult to get any tropical systems
00:20
to develop.
00:21
Now, having said that, you still have to keep an area, I think, on one zone.
00:25
It's the Caribbean.
00:27
That's where you typically can get some development.
00:30
And that is an area that we've been warning you about over the last couple of weeks, that
00:35
if we're going to get development, that's the zone that we're going to see it.
00:39
Across the Atlantic, and by the way, water temperatures here, above normal.
00:43
Here they go.
00:44
They're up above normal by at least a couple of degrees here.
00:47
So still very warm water.
00:49
We haven't had any storms or anything in this area in quite some time.
00:53
So the water has been, what we say, undisturbed.
00:55
Now, across the Atlantic, not much.
00:57
We have a couple of frontal boundaries here.
00:58
You've got to keep an eye on frontal boundaries.
01:00
They sometimes can spark some showers and thunderstorms here.
01:03
You can see one front end here.
01:05
That's why we're getting some clouds across Hispaniola and the Virgin Islands, although
01:09
I'm not looking for any development here over the next couple of days.
01:12
A lot of dry air in the Atlantic Basin.
01:15
Take a look at the water vapor loop here.
01:16
And of course, the dry air denoted by the yellow shading here.
01:19
A lot of wind shear as well.
01:20
I'll show you that map as well.
01:22
But I mean, the southwest Atlantic, there's just so much dry air.
01:26
And even right now in the Gulf of Mexico and much of the Caribbean has dry air.
01:31
So even though we have that frontal boundary that I just showed you, here it is, there's
01:35
so much dry air in the Caribbean.
01:37
We're not going to see any development with that.
01:39
Also, wind shear.
01:40
I have our wind shear product here, where you see the dark purple is where you have
01:43
strong winds.
01:45
Wind shear weakens tropical systems.
01:47
And pretty much right now, the entire Atlantic Basin is shut down for business.
01:55
Only a little sliver here in the southern part of the Caribbean.
01:59
Now next week, here's what we're going to be watching for you.
02:03
Not much going in the Caribbean right now.
02:04
As I mentioned, there's too much wind shear.
02:07
But next week, I think this is an area to watch as we get toward the middle and latter
02:12
half of next week for the chance of some development.
02:15
I think something is going to try to develop down here in the southwest Caribbean.
02:20
But see, here's the kind of the setup here.
02:22
It's a frontal boundary that's going to come south and stall.
02:24
You always look on the south of the front and on the belly of the strong surface high
02:30
pressure systems.
02:31
One mid to late next week will be across mid-Atlantic.
02:33
So this is an area to watch.
02:35
So one thing, though, I think something's going to try to develop out there.
02:40
I don't know if it's going to be a tropical storm, but I certainly think there's going
02:43
to be a depression.
02:44
But here's the thing.
02:45
There's going to be so much wind shear here across the United States, across the Gulf
02:49
of Mexico and Florida.
02:51
Even if this system tried to come this far north, it would get sheared apart.
02:54
Number one.
02:55
Number two, I think there's going to be strong westerly flow here across the United States
03:01
and, in fact, much of the Caribbean.
03:03
So as this system tries to come northward and it will, it would be shunted off to the
03:07
east.
03:08
So I do not see a pathway for development or a landfalling storm for the United States
03:14
here.
03:15
But I would watch this area here from Jamaica, southeast Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the
03:19
Virgin Islands, that we could be looking at some heavy rain here as we get in toward the
03:24
middle and latter half of next week.
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