US, Caribbean on alert for growing tropical system

AccuWeather

AccuWeather meteorologists say a major hurricane is likely to take shape as a strengthening tropical system traverses the Atlantic basin.

Transcript

00:00 Alright, we do have tropical

00:02 depression #13. It's around 40 degrees West.

00:04 We haven't highlighted here.

00:05 It's still about, you know,

00:07 three to four days away from moving

00:09 north of the Leeward Islands here,

00:11 but this is going to develop and

00:13 this will be a storm rather quickly.

00:15 Wouldn't be surprised if it

00:17 was a storm later on today,

00:19 so we'll continue to track

00:20 this as we move forward here.

00:22 But this is the story.

00:24 This is the number one story in the

00:26 tropics as we move forward here,

00:28 and I believe tropical depression #3

00:30 will be a hurricane by Thursday morning.

00:32 Now we'll move north of the

00:34 Leeward Islands this weekend.

00:35 Probably is a major hurricane.

00:37 More on that and then listen.

00:39 US impacts are certainly possible.

00:40 At the very least,

00:41 this system once it strengthens and we

00:43 think it will rapidly strengthen this weekend,

00:46 it's at the very least going to

00:48 produce rough surf and dangerous rip

00:50 currents up and down the Eastern Seaboard.

00:52 Next week, alright,

00:53 let me show you what it lies ahead of it.

00:56 Here we take a look at the water

00:58 temperatures are warm water temperatures

00:59 in the Atlantic or at their peak right now.

01:02 And by the way,

01:03 water temperatures are running

01:04 above the historical average,

01:05 so we have plenty of warm water.

01:07 Now what would stop this is

01:09 dry air and wind shear.

01:10 Now you look at this and you say wow,

01:13 look at all the dry air that's in its path.

01:16 Well, here's the thing.

01:17 The dry air is not coming into the storm.

01:19 It's being pushed away from the storm.

01:21 I've seen this with these systems.

01:23 These developing systems.

01:24 They could be surrounded by dry air,

01:26 they create their own environment for development.

01:29 That's what appears to be happening right now.

01:31 You could also see even a you

01:33 can see right in here you see how this.

01:35 Little clockwise motion of the blue away.

01:38 This is a telltale sign that we have

01:41 high pressure in this area in the

01:43 upper part of the atmosphere,

01:45 which means there's low wind shear.

01:47 And even if you look at the water

01:48 vapor loop wind shears right here,

01:50 you see how we have wind shear here.

01:51 Winds moving from Southwest to Northeast.

01:54 That's wind shear.

01:55 I don't see any wind shear here,

01:56 because what what I can see is the

01:59 the blue the and the white and the yellow.

02:01 It's all moving for the most part.

02:04 From East to West,

02:05 that tells me if we have light wind shear.

02:07 That's why this is going to gradually

02:09 strengthen over the next couple of days,

02:10 and I think it really gets going here

02:13 as we get into Friday night and Saturday.

02:16 In here, this is going to rapidly intensify.

02:20 We're going to have at the very

02:22 least a category 4 hurricane.

02:23 I think we'll have a category 4

02:25 hurricane north of Puerto Rico.

02:26 That means maximum staying

02:27 winds of 130 mph.

02:29 Category 3 is 111 and while there

02:31 will be some impacts on the

02:33 northern Leeward Islands,

02:35 I suspect there's going to be

02:36 inflow channels here and some

02:38 showers and thunderstorms.

02:39 Puerto Rico and the northern

02:41 and the Leeward Islands.

02:43 There's also going to be some rough

02:45 surf hammering the northern side

02:47 of these islands and that will

02:49 include the Turks and Caicos in the

02:51 Bahamas as we get in the early part of the week.

02:53 So while most of the rain and wind

02:55 may stay north of the island,

02:56 there's at least going to be some impacts

02:57 there and the surf is going to be very,

02:59 very large.

03:00 Now the question is we have a major

03:02 hurricane off the off the well

03:04 off the East Coast of Florida.

03:06 Where is it going?

03:07 Well, I can tell you this.

03:08 I think we could pretty much rule out

03:10 all of Florida and the Carol and most

03:13 most of the North Carolina coast.

03:16 I'd say from the Outer Banks on South,

03:18 I think you can breathe a sigh of relief.

03:20 Now let me show you the scenarios for

03:22 this as we move forward here,

03:24 and there are two depends on the state

03:26 of this trough that's going to be coming

03:27 in the east of United States.

03:28 Middle part of next week.

03:29 Now this seems to be at this point

03:32 the most likely scenario that is

03:34 the trough comes fast enough that it

03:38 will steer.

03:40 What will be Lee out to see Bermuda?

03:42 You're going to have a close call,

03:43 but out to see now maybe not Atlanta,

03:46 Canada,

03:46 but east of the United States.

03:48 That seems to be the most likely

03:50 scenario at this point.

03:51 However,

03:52 I can see a scenario where this trough

03:54 isn't here.

03:55 It's a little farther West.

03:57 It's across the Midwest and what

03:58 happens is you get this upper level

04:00 low that forms across the lakes.

04:02 That means the jet streams farther

04:03 West and that will draw this

04:05 hurricane a little farther east.

04:07 This red area is where I can see

04:09 some rain and wind problems.

04:11 I can see it.

04:11 It's not the most likely scenario

04:13 at this point.

04:14 I want to point that out,

04:15 but you know what?

04:15 We're a week away and I've seen

04:18 the times where we think these

04:20 troughs are coming into the east

04:21 and it goes out to sea and we

04:23 think that's going to be right.

04:24 But then there's a little subtle changes.

04:26 Little farther West trough

04:28 and then we have problems.

04:29 So you've got to watch this along

04:31 the eastern seaboard as we

04:32 head into next week.

04:33 So again,

04:34 what do you need to know?

04:36 We're going to have a strengthening

04:37 major hurricane in the southwest

04:39 Atlantic early next week.

04:40 Now odds do favor this thing

04:42 east of the United States.

04:43 It favors it doesn't mean that it

04:45 can't come to the US coast.

04:47 If it does,

04:48 I think it would be from the outer

04:49 banks all the way up in the eastern

04:51 New England.

04:51 If it does again,

04:52 odds favorite staying east.

04:54 Regardless of the track,

04:55 you're going to have a powerful

04:56 hurricane off the eastern seaboard,

04:58 which means there's going to be

04:59 dangerous rip currents and some

05:00 very rough surf up and down the

05:02 eastern seaboard as we go through next week.

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