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Report
Warm water in the Caribbean likely to fuel new tropical storm
AccuWeather
Follow
11/1/2024
AccuWeather forecasters say there's a high chance of a new tropical system in the first week of November.
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News
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00:00
But it does help to break down.
00:02
The environmental factors to why we
00:04
are monitoring some activity in the
00:06
Atlantic Basin still temperatures
00:08
are running above where we would
00:10
typically sit if you look at that
00:13
anomaly and right in the MDR that
00:15
Atlantic Main Development region.
00:17
They are still running pretty warm,
00:19
even if you compare it to the
00:21
10 years from 2013 to 2023,
00:23
we're still running above even
00:25
that curve through today.
00:26
So while we are starting our downward
00:28
trend, we're still running above
00:30
to where we typically sat.
00:32
Tropical tracker here into mid November.
00:34
This is going to be the area
00:36
that we are monitoring.
00:37
That's going to extend up and down
00:39
the Caribbean where we do have moisture.
00:42
Pretty much persistent to thunderstorms,
00:43
though we're not tracking a lot of wind
00:46
shear and that's not good news,
00:48
especially when it comes to
00:49
the impacts of a storm.
00:51
Now for the storm,
00:52
it's great news because it doesn't
00:54
have a lot to fight against.
00:56
Very warm waters that we're going
00:57
to help fuel this storm,
00:59
so it's really going to see when the
01:01
ingredients can all line up together.
01:04
We're calling for development
01:05
November 2nd through the 5th.
01:07
We also have another area of low
01:09
concern from tomorrow through the 4th,
01:11
mostly going to be this high area
01:13
that we are monitoring here,
01:14
though you'll see that some convection
01:16
happening across parts where we do
01:18
have that low chance of development,
01:20
but it's really a tale of two
01:22
scenarios and to the mid to late week.
01:25
If this is the case,
01:27
if this jet can dip low enough and
01:29
continue to help pull this storm north,
01:32
then that's when we could see some
01:34
interaction if it takes that northern track.
01:37
If that jet moves East,
01:39
then those US impacts are possible,
01:41
though if it does start to close off
01:43
and it stalls across the Rockies,
01:45
that storm at least with that jet,
01:47
the US impacts are unlikely as we
01:50
are expecting that storm to move West.
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1:53
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