00:00The U.S. mainland has not seen any recent tropical threat since Hurricane Milton, but that could change
00:05potentially as we head into November. Bernie Rayno and Ariella and AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva,
00:12excuse me, have a closer look.
00:15We've been saying it since the very beginning of the hurricane season, even way back before when we made our initial
00:21forecast out in March, that we thought the end of the hurricane season could get quite active.
00:26So and we still think that right now. So we think that we could see a late season surge here as we move into the
00:31month of November. We're still expecting another one to three named storms during the month of November.
00:36And we may even see something into December as well.
00:39And you know what? And we'll always like to take it a step farther.
00:43OK, one to three named storms.
00:46But then the next part of the equation is, is who has to worry about them, Alex?
00:51Yeah, absolutely. You know, that's the million dollar question.
00:54Are these going to affect me? Because if it's one to three out in the middle of the Atlantic, nobody really cares.
00:58But we are concerned that areas, the entire state of Florida, even up into the Carolinas, could be at risk of seeing another
01:05tropical impact this season.
01:06And of course, those areas are already very, very vulnerable for multiple hits this season.
01:11Good news is the western and central Gulf of Mexico areas.
01:15We don't think that those areas will be seeing any direct impacts for the rest of the season.
01:19All right. Let's just tie this up here with some talking points, Alex, as we go forward.
01:24As we go forward here again, we are concerned about impacts throughout the month of November.
01:29We may even see a storm into December as well.
01:31Doesn't happen very often.
01:32But again, those really warm sea surface temperatures are kind of driving this as well.
01:36So we're thinking Florida up into the Carolinas are at risk here over the next month or so.
01:41And we're calling for one to three additional named storms throughout the throughout the rest of the hurricane season.
01:47And we feel pretty strongly that one to three named storm is coming within the next week, Alex.
01:52Yeah, it certainly could.
01:53We push the date back just a little bit.
01:55We're thinking the beginning of November.
01:57High risk of development.
01:58We've been talking about this for days and days and days concerned about this area in the central Caribbean here.
02:05Very warm water temperatures, very low wind shear.
02:08We're expecting development in this area.
02:10Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex Da Silva.
02:13Alex, thanks for joining us.
02:15Well, right now we are dealing with a big plume of moisture, two zones here into the Caribbean where we got to keep an eye out for potential development.
02:27And there is an area of concentrated moisture into the western part of the Caribbean and also the southwestern Caribbean, two zones here with increased amounts of moisture.
02:40Here's a more high resolution look at what's going on here with some thunderstorms and taller, deeper convection northeast of Costa Rica as well.
02:47Moving forward, as Alex and Bernie mentioned, we don't expect any more threats into the western Gulf of Mexico.
02:54There's just way too much wind shear out there, which is great to see.
02:57We'd like the wind shear in this time of the year because that mitigates the development of any tropical systems and typically more than the cooler water.
03:05It's the wind shear that ends the hurricane season for certain areas.
03:08Now, we can't guarantee that the shear will stay low in areas around Florida yet, as there may still be a reduction in wind shear at some point there.
03:17So the hurricane season is not necessarily over yet for Florida and certainly not yet for the Caribbean.
03:22So there are some downpours out there this week, rough seas, a flood threat continues for the Caribbean out there with the downpours.
03:29And look at these two zones here of increased moisture, the deep maroon.
03:33Here we are getting into Wednesday and just an abundant amount of moisture drifting west through the southwest Caribbean.
03:39That's where we're most concerned about development potential.
03:42Friday through Monday of this coming weekend into the time frame about a week from now, we're likely to see an area of low pressure spin up somewhere in here.
03:50If it happens earlier, maybe off to the eastern part of the region, it could be drawn north by a trough.
03:54If it doesn't develop until next Monday, maybe so far west is probably out of reach for any trough and it may be moving into areas like Belize, a little more similar to what we saw with, say, Nadine.
04:05And as we take a look at the two options here again, an earlier development would come north possibly if it doesn't develop until next week, it becomes more of a Yucatan, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua storm.
04:17So we've got to keep an eye out for the southeast coast of the U.S.
04:19If anything actually steps beyond tropical depression status into a true tropical storm, Patty would be the next name.
04:25And it's likely that if we had to hedge our bets, we probably will see a Patty at some point in November and it may come within the next seven to eight days.
04:32In the Pacific, well, we don't have as much issue out there with Christie, but there are two areas of possible development way out over the open water.
