Could another tropical storm be on the way?

AccuWeather

Dry, dusty air has prevented tropical development in recent weeks, but forecasters are keeping a close eye on a tropical wave that could be in the Caribbean by the start of August.

Transcript

00:00We are dealing with some dry, dusty air across much of the Atlantic, and that's keeping us in the short term out of trouble.

00:07You can see a lot of widespread dusty Saharan air, and it's becoming in large plumes and moving west with time.

00:14But that's been driven by winds aloft.

00:17In other levels of the atmosphere, there's been strong wind shear in opposing directions.

00:21And when you get these winds, they kind of argue against one another at different altitudes.

00:25We call that wind shear, and that keeps tropical waves disorganized.

00:29So for two reasons, for the wind shear and also because of the dry, dusty Saharan air,

00:34two big arguments against any strong tropical development in the short term.

00:39Now, there will be a tropical wave we're tracking that's going to be moving into this area,

00:43but overall, we're looking pretty good.

00:45You can see what's going on in Bermuda.

00:47We're looking delightful out there right now to the north of that plume of Saharan air.

00:52Another big cruise ship out there.

00:55We're looking good in this area, and there's nothing too stressful for our friends in Bermuda.

00:59But overall, we will be tracking a tropical wave, a pretty robust one, that's out over the east-central Atlantic.

01:06As we spin this forward, and you can see the graphic loop here,

01:10this area of low pressure, this tropical wave, is the one that we need to keep an eye on and track as it moves into this area.

01:16Now, you'll notice very dry air in its path.

01:19Also, that area of wind shear that we highlighted is also in its path.

01:23So therefore, we're not going to see this organize any time soon.

01:26In fact, it is possible that it might not even fully survive through this zone of inhospitable air for this tropical wave.

01:34But if it can make it through and eventually move into the Caribbean,

01:37it'll have to battle some land interaction, and that will likely keep things in check.

01:42If it can survive through that and reach the western Caribbean or the Gulf,

01:45there could be an opportunity for this to organize late next week.

01:49If it does organize into a tropical storm, its name would become deadly.

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