Concerns growing for a major tropical system in late September

AccuWeather

AccuWeather forecasters are watching a spot in the Gulf of Mexico where they say a tropical storm or hurricane could form in the final week of September.

Transcript

00:00We want to talk to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter about this looming tropical threat.

00:06This has been the big story for the second half of this week.

00:08And John is only going to become more prominent in our minds in through next week as well.

00:13So, overall, John, as we look ahead to what's going on in the Caribbean,

00:17we're beginning to see a little more convection out that way.

00:19That's right. We're starting to see more signs of developing trouble,

00:24and that is thunderstorms more numerous over a wider area here across parts of the Caribbean Sea.

00:31And this is indicative of lowering pressures in this area, converging winds,

00:36and this is going to yield, this area is going to likely yield a tropical storm

00:41and perhaps eventually a hurricane and maybe even a major hurricane.

00:45So we have significant concerns about this, not in the immediate short term here,

00:49but as we head toward early next week for that storm to start to gather.

00:53And as we take a look ahead to the next couple of days, we're going to see slow organization.

00:59But, you know, John, we've been looking at where we are on the map, where we are on the calendar as well,

01:05and history would suggest intensification is very likely with this,

01:08with a big threat to the area between the Gulf Coast of the U.S. central and eastern part of the Gulf Coast.

01:13But specifically, some of the ingredients, how are we looking with the water, moisture, and wind shear?

01:19Unfortunately, all these ingredients, when you look at them, all point to an intensifying storm system,

01:25and that's why we've really been highlighting the concerns that this can be a significant hurricane threat,

01:31especially for places from Louisiana down to Florida,

01:35although we cannot rule out really anywhere yet along the Gulf Coast.

01:39And if we open up the history books specifically, storms that form in this general zone,

01:44a little southwest of Cuba, a little east of the Yucatan, where do they tend to go in September?

01:48Well, in September, the thrust of this is up toward the central Gulf Coast and over to Florida,

01:55and that's another reason that we have most concern about that area.

01:59But you see a few of them do go back toward Mexico or Central America and a few of them back toward Texas,

02:04which is why we want everyone along the Gulf Coast to be monitoring this situation

02:09for checking back with us here at AccuWeather more frequently.

02:13And this graphic here of Joe's just kind of not even acknowledging the current pattern.

02:18It's just looking at any storm that passes through that zone in September.

02:22Sometimes there's a trough, sometimes there's a ridge of high pressure over Tennessee.

02:25In this case, we do expect there to be a trough there,

02:27so how might that hedge our bets regarding the historical distribution versus our forecast?

02:32Well, this is going to be the key. We've been saying this all along.

02:35This is going to be the big key to the movement and intensification in some ways of this storm

02:39because if this dip in the jet stream is a little bit further south,

02:42that would tend to focus that storm threat more toward Florida,

02:46whereas if it's a little bit further to the north, that's how it can get to the central

02:50or even western part of the Gulf of Mexico.

02:53So, again, that will be worked out here in the coming days,

02:57but this is why we have a concern about this significant threat.

03:00But it's not going to be until later next week or early next weekend,

03:04so we've got time to prepare and keep track with us here at the AccuWeather app,

03:08AccuWeather.com, and the AccuWeather Network.

03:10All right, and every day we're going to get a little more confident,

03:13most likely as the trough that we'll ultimately set in is being driven by a disturbance still over the Pacific,

03:18and as that gets over land, we'll be able to sample that much better with the computer modeling and all that.

03:22Thanks again, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, for joining us on this Friday afternoon.

03:28All right, John, and as we take a look at what's been going on out there,

03:32off of the coast of the southeast, we have some showers and storms east of Florida,

03:37but, again, the developing convection here over areas a little farther south

03:43is where we're going to generally see this form here,

03:47and, again, it will be borne out of one of these clusters of thunderstorms.

03:51I'm going to turn this white so you can see it a little more clearly here.

03:54So we're looking just east of Nicaragua, east of Honduras, and north of Costa Rica,

03:57and we have Panama off to the south.

03:59And, overall, we're going to be watching as, again, the threats do kind of loom,

04:04so we've had a break in the action here.

04:06It's been a strange hurricane season.

04:08The strongest hurricanes earlier this season occurred unusually early in the season.

04:13We had Beryl very strong very early in the season.

04:16Then we got into a little bit of a quieter spell.

04:19Long-track storms typically occur in the peak season, around now.

04:22They'd be forming out off the west coast of Africa and crossing the Atlantic.

04:25We're not really seeing that.

04:26We're looking at these slightly unusual patterns here

04:29where we're looking at more of a June or July-like pattern for a Caribbean-borne storm,

04:33maybe even over the eastern Gulf, as opposed to one that we inherit from east of the Caribbean.

04:38So it's going to have been a backwards, lopsided season in some form.

04:41So one last word here.

04:43We want you to be prepared.

04:44We want you to stay on top of this and be well advised that in the next five to nine days or so,

04:50we may be dealing with some major impacts here for parts of the Gulf Coast.

04:53We don't want anybody to be afraid of this.

04:55We just want you to be aware and also be aware that you may need to change plans at some point

04:59and just be flexible.

05:01So the timing, again this weekend, we're expecting the thunderstorms to expand into the southwestern Caribbean.

05:06We're beginning to see that happen now.

05:07We're also looking at next week for when we probably will begin to see a tropical depression,

05:11a tropical storm form.

05:12We'll probably have an accuweather eyepath out early next week on this.

05:15And then late next week, that's when we expect to see this storm become intense

05:19and perhaps close in closer to land.

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