Tropical activity could start in the first week of the 2024 hurricane season

AccuWeather

Hurricane season hasn't even officially started yet, but AccuWeather forecasters are already watching an area of concern for development in the Caribbean.

Transcript

00:00Welcome back to AccuWeather Ahead. Let's take a look at the tropical outlook here

00:04across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean. We're looking at nearly

00:08record-warm waters. In fact, it is actually a record warm mean water

00:13temperature for this whole chunk of the Atlantic right now. If we look at where

00:16we are on the calendar, this early in the season, this is the warmest we have been

00:19historically. Two and a half to four and a half degrees above average. And, you

00:24know, it's been fortunate that we have not seen any preseason storms this year

00:28despite the warmth. But, again, you may have a whole lot of sugar sitting on the

00:32counter and that doesn't mean you're gonna necessarily have a batch of

00:34cookies. The warm water is one of the big factors, one of the big ingredients, but

00:38there are also some competing factors like wind shear. We've had too much

00:41wind shear. We've had a lot of dry air out there that has also prevented us

00:44from seeing any early season storms or preseason storms. Now, we could still see

00:49some early season action. In fact, we likely will. And around the end of next

00:53week, we'll be watching for this general zone here around the western end of

00:58Hispaniola into Jamaica and into eastern parts of Cuba into the Turks and Caicos,

01:02eastern Bahamas. There could be some heavy rain and some some strong

01:06indications that there's gonna be some extra moisture here and heavy

01:09torrential downpours. And if that organizes enough, we might see an early

01:12season storm. Now we are looking at an above average season, and that's not a

01:16surprise here. Our long range team is forecasting a 10 to 15% of 30 named

01:22storms. That would tie the record from 2020 if we see 30 names for so 10 to 15%

01:27chance that we actually tie the record. But overall, we are expecting between

01:31four and seven major hurricanes. That's above average. We average about three

01:35major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, and we are looking at a greater

01:39likelihood of impacts near the Texas coast of Florida, Panhandle, South

01:42Florida and the Carolinas. And we'll be watching again. We're expecting 20 to

01:4725 named storms. Last year we had 19 and we're expecting 4 to 6 direct U. S.

01:52Impacts.

Category

Transcript

Recommended