Could the US have another tropical storm by mid-July?

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish explains the factors limiting development of tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean and what could change in the week ahead.

Transcript

00:00When it comes to tropical development there are often three big things we look

00:04for. One is warmth. We have plenty of warm water. Another is moisture. Right now

00:10there's a lot of dry air. You will notice very few big tropical waves that are

00:14healthily crossing the Atlantic. We have some clusters of some moisture off the

00:18southeast coast into areas near the Bahamas, parts of Cuba and kind of

00:22hugging some of Central America. So we got warmth. We have the kind of the at

00:27least the eye on the amount of moisture out there and also wind shear and we'll

00:30look at that as well. Sometimes wind shear if it's strong enough can disrupt

00:33anything and prevent it from organizing. So the first box is checked here. We got

00:37water temps above 80 degrees. In fact several degrees above 80 mid 80s for a

00:41lot of us into the Gulf and into the Western Atlantic. So that's not a

00:45limiting factor but it what is a limiting factor are really twofold. One we have a

00:49lot of wind shear over the Caribbean. That's keeping us out of trouble in the

00:53Caribbean and even into parts of the Central Atlantic. But there's limited

00:56wind shear near the southeast coast. So that kind of opens the door for some

01:00potential trouble. Again if you're on the left side of the scale here on the key

01:05the lighter shades of pink or purple are where we don't have a whole lot of

01:09shear. There is some limited opportunity for development there but things are

01:12shut down farther out there. And another inhibiting factor farther out is some dry

01:18air. Frequent pockets of Saharan dust migrating across the Atlantic and even at

01:22times into the Gulf as well. So all these factors are kind of coming together to keep

01:27us with a limited risk of development between this would be what Sunday and the mid to late

01:34part of next week north of Bermuda. Some opportunity for some of the moisture to

01:37kind of break off and slide north and some chance of development there. And then a

01:40little farther down the line late next week limited chances for development near the Gulf

01:44itself. So we're going to keep our land risk of rain and wind from the tropical disturbances a low risk.

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