Anything brewing in the tropical Atlantic?

AccuWeather

AccuWeather meteorologists say that the tropics are rather quiet with only weeks to go in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

Transcript

00:00 Tropics remain now quiet.

00:03 It's been quiet over the last couple of weeks.

00:05 And you know what?

00:06 For the first time in a while, I don't have anything highlighted as a concern for development

00:12 across the Atlantic Basin.

00:13 There are some clouds.

00:15 You can do see this is the intertropical ITCC, the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

00:20 I don't think there's any concern here.

00:23 We still have moisture in the central Caribbean.

00:26 Not much associated with that at this moment.

00:28 So really nothing over the next seven days we're too concerned about.

00:32 And there's a reason for that.

00:33 I want to show you the wind shear product.

00:35 So what you're looking at here is the wind shear.

00:39 Strong winds in the middle upper part of the atmosphere.

00:41 When you have a lot of wind shear, you don't get any development.

00:43 And our wind shear product, look at where we have the strong winds here in the dark

00:47 purple.

00:48 Almost all of the Atlantic Basin is closed for business.

00:53 Notice where it's not.

00:54 Yeah, in the Caribbean.

00:57 That's one area that you're going to have to pay attention to over the next couple of

01:01 weeks for the possibility of development.

01:03 But here, while we don't have any wind shear in the Caribbean, you see what else is going

01:07 on though?

01:08 A lot of dry air.

01:09 A lot of dry air.

01:10 So even though we have light winds aloft, you have a lot of dry air.

01:14 Water temperatures certainly are still warm no matter where you look.

01:18 But that wind shear is going to be unfavorable for development right in the next week.

01:24 So all of next week.

01:25 So if you think about it, this is going to, wind shear will prevent much of any development,

01:30 at least in the Atlantic Basin, to at least the third week in November.

01:35 At least the third week in November.

01:36 Now listen, you have to worry about this.

01:39 Water temperatures.

01:40 Where are they warmest?

01:41 Where the water's been untouched most of this hurricane season in the Caribbean.

01:46 And remember, this is an area that you have low wind shear.

01:49 So if we see any development, I don't really see any here, at least in the next week to

01:53 ten days, the area to watch is going to be in the Caribbean.

01:56 Now historically, once you get past November 10th, you can see there's a little bump here

02:02 late in November.

02:03 But since we have a moderate to strong El Nino, I think, and you tend to get strong

02:07 wind shear in moderate to strong El Ninos, I think this is going to flatline here.

02:13 And maybe we get another storm.

02:15 But it's going to be relatively quiet here as we go through the rest of November.

02:20 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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