Tropical development possible within the first week of September

AccuWeather

The first tropical storm in the Atlantic since Aug. 13 could form before the first week of September ends.

Transcript

00:00Now, the tropics have been a little sleepy lately.

00:03Yes, they've been taking at least the tropics as a whole,

00:08just been on a nap over these last few weeks.

00:11Though, still seeing some tropical activity,

00:14not too far from where you were, Jeff, in the Gulf of Mexico.

00:19That's where we're tracking still a low chance for development.

00:23But this is typically when we start to see things ramp up, get going.

00:29Hurricane season as we know it,

00:31or at least have known it over the last few years.

00:34Though, we haven't seen that rise, though,

00:39starting from August into early September.

00:42But that is typically when we have the peak of hurricane season,

00:45right around September 10th.

00:47And if we look back at years past,

00:50ranked for the most active hurricane seasons,

00:532020 coming in with the winning number of 30,

00:572021 not too far behind just with 22 and 2023.

01:02So we have been in these record years over these last few years,

01:07and things are looking very quiet,

01:10eerily quiet here in the tropics for this time of year.

01:14This just shows you that splattering of all the storms we had back in 2020.

01:18You'll note this is when we had to go into the Greek alphabet

01:22because we had so many storms.

01:24When we look at the Atlantic hurricane season into the near future,

01:28we haven't seen any storms forming in the Atlantic since Ernesto.

01:34That was back on August 12th.

01:36The last time this happened between August 13th through today was in the 60s.

01:43So this isn't typical.

01:45It's a quiet stretch for hurricane activity

01:48as we continue on throughout this next week or so.

01:52And AccuWeather has made adjustments to their exclusive AccuWeather forecast.

01:57We are forecasting now 16 to 20 named storms,

02:01with 6 to 10 of those being hurricanes, major hurricanes, 3 to 6,

02:05impacts through the U.S. staying 4 to 6.

02:09So we've already had two.

02:11We're closing in on that number,

02:14and we are monitoring a few zones out in the Atlantic.

02:17We do have one that's in the Caribbean,

02:20pushing into the West Caribbean around the Yucatan

02:23and then developing potentially in the Bay of Campeche.

02:27We're keeping a close eye.

02:29That's going to be September 6th through the 8th.

02:31And like I mentioned earlier, a low chance in the Gulf

02:34and also across the East Coast of the U.S.

02:37But keeping an eye on that medium chance out in the Mid-Atlantic, Jeff,

02:41over these next few days.

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