AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva breaks down the numbers for what is expected to be an above-average hurricane season. He also monitors the Caribbean region for potential development from June 12-16.
00:00Alex, let's first go over the hurricane forecast, some of the highlights, and then we're going to talk about what to expect here over the next week, the 10 days here.
00:11Let's begin with the Accu with a forecast that was issued back in early March.
00:16Yeah, again, the number of named storms we're predicting for this year, 13 to 18.
00:21Last year we saw 18. Of course, it was a very, very busy season.
00:24So this year could be on par with last season. 7 to 10 hurricanes is what we're calling for this year.
00:29And 3 to 5 majors, that would be Category 3 or above, but that last column, that's the most important there.
00:35How many impacts do we expect to the United States? We're calling for 3 to 5 direct impacts, or 3 to 6, excuse me.
00:41Last year we saw 6 direct impacts.
00:44And the historical average is 4, so we're worried about landfalling hurricanes.
00:48Again, that's the big statistic.
00:51And we can even give you an idea of where the odds are a little higher for direct impact and landfall.
00:58Yeah, indeed we can. We do this by looking at past analog years.
01:02And so basically what we do is we go back into the past and use the past to predict the future.
01:06We took 12 years that had similar atmospheric conditions to what we expect for this upcoming year,
01:11and we plotted all the landfall points of those 12 years.
01:14The orange are tropical storms, and the red dots are hurricane landfalls.
01:18And then we kind of look and see where the clustering is,
01:20and that can give us a clue as to which areas might be a little more vulnerable this year.
01:25And so we're taking a look at it here.
01:26You can see in the northern Gulf Coast we have a lot of clustering,
01:29west coast of Florida, and then up into the Carolinas as well.
01:33The other clustering I see, Alex, is up in Maine, especially Atlantic Canada.
01:40Is that a concern?
01:42It can be, because this shows that there could be a lot of recurving storms,
01:45and a lot of close misses potentially to the United States.
01:49But again, just a little bit of a wiggle here or there could potentially bring those storms inland.
01:52And again, these dots are just an idea about which areas could be more vulnerable.
01:57Even if you live in areas that are not in these highlighted areas,
02:00we need to watch the forecast very, very carefully.
02:03Yeah, the hurricane season, long, six months in length.
02:07You know, we tend to get most of the storms during the heart of the hurricane season,
02:12but kind of a look at the season as a whole with this graphic.
02:17Yeah, it certainly is.
02:18And we think back to last year, we had a big midsummer lull at the end of August,
02:21beginning of September.
02:23You know, that's something that we could potentially see again this year.
02:26I look out towards Africa and the sea surface temperatures out there,
02:29and they're kind of cluing me into potentially another midsummer lull.
02:32But we don't want people to be fooled.
02:34Last year, the second half of the season really ramped up after that midsummer lull.
02:38And we're also very concerned about rapidly intensifying cyclones.
02:42I know that's the same song and dance that we've been hearing the last couple of years,
02:45but it looks like that's going to be the same deal again
02:48as the water temperatures are exceptionally, exceptionally warm across the Atlantic.
02:52Of course, we're also worried about that you can see the impacts from these storms well inland as well.
02:58You're also a little worried that we'll get a storm or two during the beginning of the season.
03:03And this is where things get a little tricky because early in the season, you get homegrown development.
03:09And that process is much different than what we see the development during the heart of the season.
03:15Yeah, indeed we do.
03:16You know, during the heart of the season, we typically look way out towards Africa
03:19for those waves coming across the Atlantic.
03:21But this time of year, much closer to home.
03:24We look for either dips in the jet stream coming all the way south into the Gulf or off the southeast coast,
03:28or old frontal boundaries that can stall and then a little bit of spin can form at the end of one of those fronts.
03:34And the reason why this makes things a little tricky is when you look at where the storms form
03:39and when they would impact the United States.
03:42Homegrown development means impacts generally less than four days.
03:48Yeah, and that's the thing.
03:48That's why it's very important to follow the AccuWeather forecast because, again,
03:51especially early season, we can get these storms to form very close to home.
03:55And this graphic shows how much time you would have to prepare if a storm is in any given location.
04:01So you can see that dark purple color.
04:03If a storm is in that area and it's going to hit the United States, you're two days or less from impact.
04:07You know, when you have the storms that are coming off the coast of Africa,
04:10it's about two weeks that you would have the luxury to kind of watch these storms come across the Atlantic
04:16and see if they're going to be impacting land.
04:18Even as they're approaching the Lesser Antilles, you're about a week away from landfall.
04:22So that is what's most dangerous about these homegrown developing storms, less time to prepare.
04:30Now, as we take a look at the Atlantic, we're no longer worried about any development
04:34off the southeast coast of the United States.
04:36But now you're starting to get those areas of thunderstorms to form across the southwest Caribbean.
04:42Now, it's going to take a long time if we get any development here.
04:46So, again, we continue to keep this low risk in for now.
04:50Yeah, I think something's probably going to form here around the middle of the month.
04:54The water temperatures are very warm in this area, and we're going to be having a lot of upward motion in this area.
05:00Now, the tricky part is kind of where will it form?
05:02Will it form in the western Caribbean or will it pop out in the Bay of Campeche?
05:06You know, that's a little bit of stuff we're going to have to continue to monitor.
05:09But I will say the atmospheric conditions are going to be favorable during the middle of June for tropical development.
05:15And it's just also possible that this system could go across Central America in the eastern Pacific,
05:22maybe going in the Gulf of America, Alex.
05:24And because of those possibilities, that's why we remain with that low risk for now.
05:30Yeah, we always like to give people a heads up well, well ahead of time.
05:34And this is what we've been trying to do.
05:35We knew that the atmospheric pattern could be favorable for development during the middle of the month,
05:39and we continue to highlight that risk.
05:42AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
