Areas of concern for the tropics as we head towards November

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva monitor the Caribbean for potential tropical development from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, as we head into the late stages of hurricane season.

Transcript

00:00Let's talk about the hurricane season and where we are.

00:03A lot of people may say, hey, it's late October, we're almost done, we don't have to worry

00:07as much.

00:09History tells us otherwise.

00:10Yeah, it certainly does.

00:12The hurricane season doesn't officially end until the end of November and we've seen many

00:16powerful storms at the end of October and even into the beginning of November, so we

00:19certainly don't want to let our guard down here.

00:22You can see the chart.

00:23Yes, we're going down the roller coaster per se, but we can still see very impactful storms

00:28here over the next couple of weeks, climatologically speaking, and I am concerned about an area

00:33in the central or western Caribbean here, end of October into November, that could potentially

00:39eventually affect the United States.

00:41Not much right now.

00:42It is quiet, but Oscar, Tropical Rainstorm Oscar, continues to lead, but this is the

00:48area that we've been highlighting for quite some time.

00:51In fact, we highlighted first on Monday and we upgraded to a moderate risk, I believe

00:58it was on Tuesday, Alex.

01:01Yeah, this is the area where you would typically look late in the season, a little bit closer

01:05to home, more homegrown development.

01:07You would look in the Caribbean, you'd look in the Gulf of Mexico and you'd look off the

01:10southeast coast, but in this case, we are concerned about the central and western Caribbean

01:15here for development.

01:16Again, timing of that would be the very, very end of October into the beginning of November.

01:21Now, here's the pattern and if this looks familiar to anybody, you would be correct

01:27because this is a very similar pattern that produced not only Nadine, but Oscar.

01:34Yeah, it certainly is.

01:35We're going to have a big area of high pressure to the north and a lot of times these storms

01:38like to develop underneath the bellies of these high pressure areas and so a lot of

01:42times we see a low wind shear environment underneath these, you know, in the belly of

01:47the high pressure area and you're going to have that stationary front there that's going

01:50to help to induce some of the showers and thunderstorms and I'm thinking that's why

01:53we probably see some sort of development here.

01:56Yeah, and the water temperatures, listen, they're always warming up for development,

02:00certainly in the Caribbean, but Alex, a little warmer than what they normally are right now.

02:05Yeah, we should be in the low 80s right now in the Caribbean for this time of the year,

02:09but we're in the mid 80s, so a couple of degrees above the historical averages for that area.

02:14Again, that's just more fuel for these tropical systems when they develop.

02:18Now this time of the year, wind shear plays the most critical role because the wind shear

02:22really starts to increase across much of the Atlantic Basin and that's why you start chopping

02:28off, let's say the eastern Atlantic, it's hard to get anything to develop in that part

02:33of the basin, but you'll notice the wind shear chart showing you the light, light purple

02:38in the Caribbean.

02:39Yeah, it certainly is.

02:41That area is like a bubble right now.

02:42It's very low wind shear, high water temperatures, and so it's a very conducive environment for

02:49development, and I think that wind shear is going to remain fairly low here over the next

02:53week or two, so I think that if a storm tries to develop, it would develop in this little

02:57pocket here in the Caribbean, low wind shear, high water temperatures.

03:01Yeah, and when you take a look at, you know, we always look at not only meteorology, but

03:05history.

03:06History is important, and as we get into late October, this is exactly where this would

03:12develop.

03:13Now the question is, Alex, where is it going if it does develop?

03:16Yeah, it's probably either going to move north or northeast.

03:19Now hopefully it just moves across Cuba and out to sea, but there are scenarios which

03:23could take this storm closer to Florida and even towards the southeast coast, so we need

03:27to watch this very carefully.

03:29We're still a week out, at least until the storm forms, so a lot can still change, but

03:34we're going to have to watch this one carefully, I think.

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