Reignited tropics heading into early November

AccuWeather

Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva continue to monitor the tropics as we head into the month of November. It is expected to become more active with between one and three named storms predicted.

Transcript

00:00When you look at the hurricane season, certainly there's been a drop off historically once we get

00:06towards September 10th, but from September through November during that time frame,

00:11there's little times where we get little bump ups. We see that in mid-October and late October.

00:18Yeah, well you know the 30-year average is for about one storm every two years during the month

00:23of November, but over the last about 10 years we've seen that activity much more frequent where

00:28the average is about one storm every year or so. So we've seen more November storms here in most

00:33recent years and we still have about 18 or 19 percent left in the hurricane season. Us at

00:39AccuWeather, we're forecasting at least another one to three named storms during the month of

00:42November, so could be pretty active here. All right, let's go into the Caribbean and the Southwest

00:48Atlantic, two areas that we're watching, but certainly as we've been talking about for the

00:54last 10 days, the Caribbean's the area really to watch. Yeah, it certainly is. That yellow highlighted

01:00area, there's a lot of wind shear up there. Even if it develops, I think it goes out to sea with

01:03no impact to the United States. Like you just mentioned, the red area there in the Caribbean,

01:07we've been highlighting this area for well over a week now. This is the area where I'm concerned

01:12that we could see development here during the first couple of days of November. Yeah, already

01:16we've had showers and thunderstorms. You could see them, different clusters. One south of Puerto Rico,

01:22one north of Panama, another to the east of Cancun, but right now, boy oh boy, just take a look

01:29at the water vapor loop and you can see why we're not getting any development. Yeah, there's a lot

01:33of wind shear, especially in the northern Caribbean right now. You can see all those clouds moving

01:37really, really quickly from left to right. That is an indication of a lot of wind shear. Now, I do think

01:42over the next couple of days, that will begin to relax and those thunderstorms that you see way

01:46down near Panama City will be able to come to the north and try to consolidate. Warm water. Now, the

01:53water in this part of the Atlantic Basin is always warm enough for development this time of the year,

01:58but you're looking at the anomalies, Alex, and this has been one of the keys to our hurricane forecast,

02:04how warm the waters have been in the Atlantic Basin this season. Yeah, the waters in the Caribbean,

02:09several degrees above the historical average. They should be in the low 80s. They're more like the

02:13mid 80s, so plenty of juice to work with if something gets going. Yeah, the wind shear, we

02:18looked at it on the water vapor loop. You could clearly see it here in our wind shear product.

02:22Yeah, that dark purple indicating areas of high wind shear. So right now, the Caribbean is not

02:27open for business. Nothing's going to develop here over the next couple of days, but I think as we go

02:31into the weekend and early next week, that is your best chance. The wind shear is going to shift to

02:35the north and it's going to create a pretty favorable environment, I think, across the Caribbean for

02:39development. Now, back on Monday, you came to me and said, Bernie, I'm worried that when we're

02:46looking at more of a western track, that we have to leave the window open for turn toward the north

02:52toward Florida. You and Alex Duffs both told me that, and I resisted a little bit until I looked

02:59at history and some of the what the pattern would look like, and that possibility is still there.

03:04You guys were right about that. Yeah, I mean, historically, you would expect the storm to move

03:08north, maybe across Cuba, Hispaniola and out to sea. But the problem is going to be that we expect

03:13a large area of high pressure to build over the east coast of the United States.

03:17That's going to pretty much shut the door for this to escape to the northeast. And so it's

03:21probably going to be pushed to the west. Now, it might just be pushed west into Central America

03:26and no threat to the United States. But the window is going to be open for a late turn

03:30back to the northeast in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, I think.

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