Extreme conditions from Hurricane Milton threaten Florida

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva warns Hurricane Milton will bring life-threatening storm surge to Florida's west coast as the storm continues to barrel towards the state.

Transcript

00:00We take a look at the structure of the storm, still a very well maintained hurricane,

00:05looks to me like the eye is getting a little better organized here on the infrared satellite

00:10picture. Yeah it certainly is and believe it or not the eye has grown in size quite a bit

00:15since yesterday. I was looking at the hurricane hunter data, latest in from them right now,

00:19yesterday when the storm was rapidly intensifying into a category five, the eye was only about four

00:25to five miles across. Right now it's about 12 to 15 miles across and that's due to the fact

00:31that the storm underwent an eyewall replacement cycle. So essentially it got a new eyewall,

00:36the storm expanded in size and the eye is much larger, the wind field is also much larger

00:42this morning as well. It doesn't appear as though that Milton is in the same kind of pristine,

00:50perfect development areas it was yesterday but still it's certainly in plenty of warm water

00:57that goes to a large depth of the Gulf of Mexico. Yeah that it is and there's certainly the

01:02possibility that the storm could re-intensify back to a category five, it's got plenty of

01:06juice to work with. It's going to be passing over what we call the loop current here in the next 12

01:10or so hours, that's that area north of the Yucatan Peninsula there that you see those bright colors

01:15there, that is an area where the ocean heat content is very very high which is the depth of

01:20that warm water. So I would say it does have a shot to re-intensify but it is running into a

01:25little more wind shear. Look at this graphic here, you can see how fast those clouds are moving on

01:29the north side of the system there, that's that wind shear that the storm is moving into. So

01:34while the sea surface temperatures are very very warm, the storm is going to be moving into an area

01:39of a little more wind shear. Yeah and that's why we are forecasting a loss of wind intensity,

01:43however it is a very big storm that is moving perpendicular to the coast and Alex because of

01:51this track, it's not a track like we saw with the 1921 hurricane or track with Heat Ian that comes

01:57out of the Caribbean then takes a sharp right turn. This is coming in from the due west so it's

02:03going to have a lot of momentum in the form of a push of water on its southern side. Yeah and that's

02:09what I'm really really concerned about. So even though we have a three at landfall, even though

02:13it's going to lose a little bit of wind intensity we think, it's still going to have that power. It

02:17was a category five, it could still get there, it'll at least be a category four close to landfall

02:22and so it's going to be pushing that water so even if it loses a little wind intensity upon landfall

02:27it's still going to have that power of at least a category four for that for that storm surge

02:31coming in and it's just going to funnel it into all of those little bays in there including Tampa

02:36Bay and the water essentially gets stuck up in the bay and it can't get out and so that's why we're

02:41expecting a dangerous life-threatening storm surge in across all of these little bays and

02:46inlets including Tampa Bay as well. Now we're closing in, we're bringing in our eyepath. Remember

02:52yesterday as far north as Cedar Key, as far south as Naples. While there is a still little a little

02:58bit of a wiggle room north and south, the window is kind of closing here Alex. We're still watching

03:05those two dips in the jet stream, a northern and a southern jet and but it seems like we're getting

03:11clarity on on which one is going to be the dominant one. Yeah a couple yesterday we were

03:18looking at it and we thought that you know there was a chance that this first trough could have

03:21been stronger kept the storm a little bit further to the south but unfortunately for the Tampa Bay

03:26area we're concerned that it's more that second trough is going to be a little bit stronger. We've

03:29already seen the storm start to jog to the north a little bit so I'm very very worried that this

03:34could end up being the worst case scenario for the Tampa Bay area. A matter of miles will make

03:40all the difference. If the storm makes landfall let's say near St. Petersburg that essentially is

03:44the worst case scenario for Tampa Bay. It's going to shove all the water in there. If it makes

03:48landfall a little further south Sarasota for the Tampa Bay area that'll be a little bit better

03:53still going to have a life-threatening storm surge but that really extreme catastrophic

03:57storm surge would be a little bit further to the south. So a matter of miles will make all

04:01a difference. And the difference with this storm surge it's how persistent and long-lasting you

04:07mentioned it before but the storm surge actually begins well in advance of the storm because of the

04:13way in which it is coming in. Yes certainly it's going to start to be shoved into those bays as

04:17early as tomorrow morning probably and then it's multiple high tide cycles as the storm approaches

04:23and then even as the storm moves inland you're still going to get wraparound wind from the north

04:28and western sides and so all these bays and inlets the back bays are going to be dealing with extreme

04:34extreme flooding so we don't want people to let their guard down if they leave

04:37you know if they live in a back bay area or anything like that. If you're told to evacuate

04:42by your local officials please please do so. This is going to be a catastrophic storm surge

04:47along the west coast of Florida.

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