Hurricane Rafael threatens Cuba as major hurricane

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Jon Porter monitor Hurricane Rafael as it closes in on Cuba as a major hurricane. The storm is expected to continue across the Gulf of Mexico toward Louisiana next week.

Transcript

00:00John, not much has changed in our thinking in the last 24 hours, but again the decision was made

00:07by the forecasting department that we were going to take Rafael to a category three hurricane

00:15as it continues to get better organized. That's right. Good morning, Bernie. That's breaking news.

00:19Our team of hurricane experts just made that decision debating and looking at all the latest

00:23data we've been talking about for days. This was going to be a small storm and small storms under

00:28the right conditions can intensify quick and that's what we're going to be dealing with a

00:32significant hurricane impact in Cuba. Now we think that it may remain that strong as it enters

00:39in the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. We do have some impacts to talk about, John.

00:44We do and obviously we're talking about life-threatening impacts in Cuba as we're

00:48talking about, but let's not forget about the Florida Keys here, especially the middle and

00:54lower keys down toward Key West. We're going to be dealing with wind gusts 40 to 60 miles per hour,

00:59storm surge of one to two, maybe three feet in some locations, and some heavy rainfall as well.

01:04So impacts felt in the United States, but then thereafter we have better news, Bernie. Here the

01:10trend is favoring less impacts down the road for the United States, which would be great.

01:15John, this is going to be likely the first hurricane this season that has entered in the Gulf

01:21of Mexico and won't leave the Gulf of Mexico or make landfall as a name storm or, let's say,

01:28even a hurricane. So that's certainly good news, but right now this is an intensifying hurricane.

01:34All signs point to the rapid intensification. The atmospheric pressure of the storm is lowering fast.

01:40We see that from the hurricane hunters that are in observing the hurricane right now

01:46flying around the storm. We see the pressure falling. The presentation on satellite is

01:50improved. Certainly this looks like a serious threat here as the storm makes its way toward

01:55Cuba and makes landfall as a major hurricane. You know, John, when we take a look at the water

02:00vapor loop, everything you need to know about the next five days is on this water vapor loop.

02:05Let's talk about first, we've been talking about 25 degrees north, which is the latitude

02:11of Fort Myers as the delineation line between where it's favorable for development and where it's not.

02:19It's almost going to be a tale of two worlds with this storm. South of that point, Bernie,

02:24this can be a very intense hurricane. And look, it looks like a buzz saw here this morning

02:29approaching portions of Cuba. That's why we're so concerned about this setup here in Cuba. But

02:35north of 25 degrees latitude, as you mentioned, you see lots of oranges and yellows on this map.

02:41And we're always pointing this out on the water vapor loop. This looks at the moisture in the

02:45mid-levels of the atmosphere. And we're pointing that out because that's a lot of dry air. Also,

02:49look at how fast these clouds are moving. They're rocketing here. And that is why we have very

02:54intense southwesterly winds in there. That's going to produce lots of wind shear, and it's

02:59going to shear this storm apart. And that's why we're talking about a loss of wind intensity.

03:04Yeah, let's talk about this track, John. Real quickly, there's the move. We talked about this

03:09yesterday, more to the west. But once again, there's going to be a little fork in the road.

03:14We'll show this again coming up in a second. But I do want to get to this fork in the road

03:18because that has not changed. It hasn't. We've been talking about this for days.

03:24It will have the opportunity to either start pulling a bit to the north here

03:28on Thursday or shift westward. Our latest thinking in terms of talking about this with our

03:34hurricane experts and debating all the latest data, AccuWeather utilizing 190 forecast models

03:40as part of our forecast process here. In all of our experience, we think it's more likely that the

03:46low level center of this storm could actually track a little bit further to the west, reducing

03:51the risk that it could get up further north toward, for example, the Louisiana or Florida

03:56Panhandle coastline. And John, really quickly here, I do want to let's get right in to the

04:01eyepath here and where we think this is going to go. As I mentioned, you and I talked about this.

04:06Once this system, Rafael, gets north of 25, it's going to be like running into a paper shredder,

04:12right? There's just too much wind shear and too much dry air. It's a great analogy. And that's

04:16what's going to happen is that parts, you know, the moisture could go one way and the low level

04:21center another way. All of that is to say that is there's a reduced risk for heavy rain and

04:28damaging winds. We can't rule it out. We still want people on the Gulf Coast from the upper

04:33Texas coast through Louisiana and to the Florida Panhandle. They'll be monitoring this

04:37very closely with us here over the next couple of days. But we are growing more confident that

04:42there could be less impacts from this storm in the United States, which, of course, would be great

04:45news. And there may never be a landfall either. Right. Which is a rarity for a storm to come into

04:52the Gulf of Mexico and not make landfall. That almost never happens, although this is the time

04:56of the year that it would. That's right. And how would that happen? It could just meander in the

05:01flow here off the coast of Louisiana as a cluster of thunderstorms. AccuWeather chief

05:08meteorologist Jonathan Porter. John, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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