Hurricane Milton building up to be a historic storm

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Jon Porter warn that the conditions set to be brought by powerful Hurricane Milton is setting up to be a historic storm as it continues to threaten Florida.

Transcript

00:00John, what strikes me most about this impact map is that all of the Florida Peninsula is

00:07going to be impacted.

00:08Let's break down the categories.

00:11Well that's right, Bernie.

00:12It's going to be an expanding storm becoming even larger as it nears the coast, which is

00:17going to draw out those storm surge, heavy rain and devastating wind impacts.

00:22And notice we have a catastrophic risk to life and property in the Tampa Bay area and

00:28surrounding west coast locations down to Bradenton and Sarasota as a result of a life

00:33threatening catastrophic storm surge that's going to be occurring, inundating these particular

00:38areas as well as devastating winds that will go well inland, destructive winds well inland

00:44and flooding rainfall along into the north, especially of the storm's path.

00:48So a wide variety of dangerous risks.

00:50That's why this storm has been rated for several days a four on AccuWeather's real impact scale

00:55for hurricanes.

00:56Yeah, let's go over that, John.

00:57So here's the AccuWeather real impact scale.

00:59For those of you seeing this for the first time, it begins at less than one.

01:02We talk about some damage.

01:03This is a six point scale.

01:05It ends at catastrophic damage to large population areas.

01:09That is a number five.

01:11John, let's go over the decision to make this a four.

01:15Well, right.

01:16When we're looking at this type of destruction, we're talking about very significant damage.

01:22And remember, the unique thing about the AccuWeather real impact scale for hurricanes is that it

01:26considers far more factors than just the wind.

01:29Of course, the wind is one of the components that we look at.

01:31The Saffir-Simpson scale, which is used by the National Hurricane Center and most other

01:35meteorologists only considers wind.

01:38We look at wind impacts, storm surge, flooding rainfall impacts and also total damage and

01:42economic loss.

01:44And when you're looking at these types of impacts, widespread power outages, damage

01:48to many structures, severe coastal inundation, that's a four on the scale.

01:52The second highest level, this can become a five on our scale if the 15 to 20 foot storm

01:59surge is realized in the Tampa Bay.

02:02That will be a very destructive and historic event there.

02:06And the other concern we have, John, is there's the center of circulation here.

02:10We've been tracking this all morning.

02:11There's that east northeast movement.

02:13So that's why Hurricane Milton now has committed itself.

02:16It will be making landfall along the west coast of Florida.

02:20But here's the other concern for the five, John.

02:24Look at the winds that we are projecting along heavily populated areas in the central Florida

02:31Peninsula.

02:32That's a very important point.

02:33Look at the core of this destructive wind of 100 to 120 mile per hour wind gusts coming

02:38right up through the Tampa metro area toward Orlando.

02:42Many people live in these areas and inland where storm surge is not going to be a risk

02:48because you're sufficiently away from water.

02:51The wind and the flooding will be major concerns.

02:54And we're expecting widespread and long lasting power outages.

02:58We're talking about days to many weeks in some of the hardest hit areas here.

03:03So that's why we want people inland Orlando and surrounding areas, for example, to be

03:08prepared, have enough food, water and other supplies in case you can't get around and

03:13you lose power for an extended period of time.

03:15And John, let's take a look at the power outage.

03:18There it is.

03:19Let's follow it up with this map here.

03:21And this is going over the population centers.

03:24Let's take this full so we can see it and explain, John.

03:28Right.

03:29What you see on the graphic here is the areas that are orange or red.

03:32This is a population density.

03:34So those orange or red areas is where the where the most people live.

03:39And that's why we're particularly concerned about that I-4 corridor that goes from Tampa

03:42to Orlando to Daytona Beach.

03:45Look at all the oranges and reds there.

03:46Many people live in that corridor.

03:48And then, of course, south of Tampa, down toward Bradenton and Sarasota, where we're

03:53talking about all these significant impacts and Bernie about the wind for just a minute.

03:57I want to mention when we're in the heart of the storm in the Orlando area, you're going

04:02to need to treat this as you would a tornado.

04:05You're going to want to be in an interior part of your home away from windows.

04:10We're concerned there can be a lot of trees falling.

04:12So if you have trees that surround your house, you want to be away from where those trees

04:16might fall if you can do that, because that's going to be a key way to stay safer during

04:21this storm.

04:22All right.

04:23Well, let's talk about the storm track here, John.

04:26Listen, this is the benchmark storm for the Tampa Bay area.

04:30It's the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane that made landfall just north of Tampa toward Tarpon

04:36Springs.

04:37Yes, that storm, though, came out of northwest Caribbean Sea.

04:41Look at that.

04:42Not not the Gulf of Mexico like this storm, but it also took a hard right turn right near

04:46Tampa Bay that brought 10 feet or more of storm surge into Tampa Bay.

04:51Of course, it's all the way back in 1921.

04:53The area was much less developed.

04:55There were far fewer people living in that area than the significant growth that's occurred

04:59in that area in recent decades.

05:01So that turn to the right is an unusual one.

05:04And what it's going to do, Bernie, is push all that water when these storms are as intense

05:07as Milton has been.

05:09It's going to push all that water toward the west coast of Florida into all these bays

05:13and inlets.

05:14That's why we're so concerned about the life threatening storm surge, a damaging storm

05:18surge of three to six feet also from the Space Coast up toward southeastern Georgia.

05:22That's going to cause problems, John, quickly, about 15 seconds.

05:25Let's talk about the west coast of Florida.

05:27Here's the biggest area with the storm surge risk 15 to 20 feet in Tampa Bay and just south

05:33toward Bradenton and Sarasota toward Venice, an AccuWeather local storm max of 23 feet.

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