Tropical system likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico

AccuWeather

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva joined Bernie Rayno on the AccuWeather Network on June 14 to discuss what's next in the hurricane season.

Transcript

00:00Joining me right now AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva and you

00:04know Alex before we get into the specifics one thing that's just kind of

00:09eye-popping here as I call this up is the water temperature anomalies not the

00:14actual water temperatures but the actual water temperature anomalies. Water

00:19temperatures now compared to the historical average for the last 30 years

00:23and it's really eye-popping how warm these waters are. It's very impressive

00:28out there right now Bernie taking a look at the water temperatures it's

00:31basically bathtub water across most of the Atlantic Basin and it's just going

00:35to continue to get warmer and warmer. Last year was the warmest season on

00:39record in terms of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin and

00:42right now we are outpacing 2023. The one thing I noticed Alex is that a couple of

00:48weeks ago we had a ribbon of colder water along the southeast coast of the

00:52United States it looks as though that's actually kind of turned around in the

00:56last few weeks. Yeah sometimes if the winds really pick up we sometimes get

01:00like an onshore wind yeah and actually mix up the water a little bit and can

01:03actually bring cooler waters up to the surface we call that upwelling. Usually

01:07doesn't last too long and as you saw in the last graphic there it looks like

01:10those waters have rebounded very very quickly and are back to their bathtub

01:14levels. Well I mentioned that because let's take you into the southeastern

01:18off the southeast coast of the United States this is that upper low that moved

01:23across the southeast now it's over the warmer waters but this is running out of

01:27time to develop isn't it? It is it's over the Gulf Stream so it's got plenty of

01:31warm water to work with unfortunately for the system it's dealing with a lot

01:35of wind shear southwest to northeast wind shear so this thing's probably just

01:39going to get pulled apart as it continues to move to the north and east

01:41I'm not too concerned about development even if it does develop it looks like

01:45it's going to be heading out into the Atlantic away from the US. Let's head

01:49down toward the Central America and and and Mexico where we've seen a growing

01:55area of showers and thunderstorms nothing organized but it's a pretty

02:00large area of showers and thunderstorms Alex. Yeah this time of year you get

02:04what we call the gyre Central American gyre to develop across the Central

02:08American countries it's a giant area of spin and you can see that there by the

02:12cluster of thunderstorms there so sometimes what we get is an area to

02:16break off from that gyre and move to the north into the Western Caribbean or

02:20Gulf of Mexico and that's exactly what we're going to see here over the

02:23Father's Day weekend and into early next week we're going to see a cluster of

02:26thunderstorms break out into the Bay of Campeche and it looks like it has a

02:30really good shot of development here low wind shear you can take a look at the

02:34graphic right here plenty of purple to the north of the Gulf of Mexico in the

02:38northern part but in that southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche

02:42there low wind shear can't allow this thing to develop. Yeah we kind of went

02:47and we upgraded this yesterday Alex to a high threat for development this is

02:51going to likely unless something happens it off the southeast coast of United

02:56States this is going to be our next storm or our first storm correct? Yeah it

03:00looks that way it's nice and warm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and actually

03:04as a matter of fact that area look at how it's shaped like a bowl that

03:08southwestern Gulf of Mexico that can actually help to induce spin the shape

03:12of the coastline there so we actually see a lot of development in that area

03:16and the shape of the coastline there that kind of roundness to it can

03:20actually help to induce spin interestingly enough. All right Acua the

03:24lead hurricane expert Alex Da Silva thank you again for joining us lots lots

03:29to look for over the next week to ten days.

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