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Tropical trouble may develop along the Southeast coast
AccuWeather
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yesterday
AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on July 2 with an update on the potential for tropical development along the Southeast coast.
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00:00
Our hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, joining us live here this morning.
00:04
You know, Alex, one of your main talking points for the hurricane season,
00:10
which you guys issued back, I think, in February,
00:14
is that we would have early season development.
00:18
Not much happened for a while, then all of a sudden, last week, boom.
00:23
We got Andrea and we had Barry.
00:26
Yeah, this is something that we've been concerned about
00:28
all the way back into the winter months
00:30
when we were starting to look at the outlook for the hurricane season.
00:33
And we were concerned that the water temperatures,
00:35
especially a little bit closer to home, Western Caribbean and into the Gulf,
00:38
were warmer than expected, warmer than average.
00:41
And so we've already seen two storms pop off right away.
00:44
And the average third-name storm is not until August 3rd.
00:48
So if we see something developing off the Atlantic,
00:50
we are going to be well, well ahead of schedule.
00:53
Yeah, let's take a look at that, Alex.
00:54
It's always difficult this time of the year
00:56
because you get the development of what we call homegrown development.
01:00
Now, this is an area that you and the Long Range team highlighted
01:04
way back last week to watch this area.
01:08
And you could see some clusters of storms,
01:10
although right now it looks like if there's any organization going on,
01:14
it's off the east coast of Florida.
01:16
Yeah, this is very typical for this time of the year.
01:18
A lot of times we get stalling cold fronts
01:20
that come all the way down across the Gulf and off the southeast coast.
01:23
They stall, you get a little bit of piece of spin off the end of it,
01:26
and then that's how you can get a lot of early season development.
01:29
So a lot of times we talk about homegrown development.
01:31
This could be a very classic example of what homegrown development is.
01:35
And even though we're early in the hurricane season,
01:38
water temperatures, you know, certainly, Alex,
01:40
in the Gulf of America and the southwest Atlantic,
01:43
they're plenty warm enough.
01:45
Plenty warm enough.
01:45
We look for about 80 degrees Fahrenheit,
01:47
so we're several degrees above that.
01:49
So no issue there in terms of the water temperatures.
01:51
And, you know, why oftentimes we don't have to worry about the tropical Atlantic
01:55
is that we have so much Saharan dust.
01:58
And you guys have been talking about the Saharan dust,
02:01
and it's made its way pretty far to the west,
02:05
even into the Gulf of Mexico right now.
02:07
Yeah, the Saharan dust is typically the highest during the months of June and July,
02:11
and we're seeing it really come across the Atlantic here.
02:13
But it is coming across the southern portion of the Gulf and into Texas right now.
02:18
So you can see that little pocket there across the northeastern Gulf and off the southeast coast
02:22
where there's little to no dust.
02:25
And so that can allow – this is the area that we're concerned about for development.
02:28
And so that area could be pretty moist and could allow for some development.
02:32
All right.
02:32
And you can see how that dust just continues to meander along the western Gulf of America.
02:38
All right.
02:39
We have this a little separated, Alex.
02:41
We decided to do this yesterday that, you know, we've been talking about this elongated area
02:46
from the northeast Gulf into the southeast Atlantic.
02:49
You guys made the decision yesterday to, well, let's not change the area
02:53
but increase the probability for development more so in the southwest Atlantic.
03:00
Yeah.
03:00
A lot of times the question with these stalling fronts is which side of the peninsula of Florida
03:04
is the development going to occur on?
03:06
Is it going to occur on the Gulf side or is it going to occur on the Atlantic side?
03:08
So right now it looks like it's more favorable for development on the Atlantic side.
03:13
So that's why we upped the chances to orange on the Atlantic side.
03:17
Nevertheless, though, it looks like it's going to be a rainy pattern across basically all of Florida
03:21
and a good portion of the southeast coast.
03:24
And as we typically see this time of the year, Alex,
03:26
and why it's difficult for tropical development in the tropical Atlantic,
03:32
much of the Atlantic is just closed for business.
03:35
Yeah, closed for business.
03:36
We're looking close to home.
03:37
Again, nothing really unusual about this.
03:40
A lot of times early in the season we're looking for homegrown development.
03:43
You're looking in the Caribbean.
03:44
You're looking in the Gulf.
03:45
You're looking off the southeast coast.
03:46
But I can tell you for certain the rest of the Atlantic,
03:50
at least for the next week or so, is closed for business.
03:53
All right.
03:53
Accu with a lead hurricane expert.
03:55
Alex Da Silva breaking it down.
03:57
Remember, they issued that area off the southeast coast of the United States
04:02
in the northern Gulf last week.
04:04
We know what we're doing here.
04:06
All right.
04:07
Thanks, Alex.
04:07
Thanks, Alex.
04:08
Thanks, Alex.
04:08
Let's see.
04:08
All right.
04:08
Thanks, Alex.
04:09
Thanks.
04:09
Thanks.
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