High risk of tropical development this weekend

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network to discuss the high risk of tropical development this weekend.

Transcript

00:00Joining us right now is AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.

00:04You know, Alex, we put out a map last week talking about the northern Gulf of America in the southwest Atlantic.

00:13We saw this possibility last week, and now our confidence that we're going to see homegrown development

00:20has increased quite a bit in the last few days.

00:24Yeah, this is going to be a classic example, I think, of homegrown development.

00:27Right close to home, right along a cold front, early in the hurricane season.

00:32This is exactly what you expect to see during the months of June or July.

00:35And this area right off the southeast coast is the area that we're watching.

00:39Earlier in the week, we thought maybe it could pop in the eastern Gulf,

00:42but now confidence is high that if we're going to get something, it looks like it's going to be off the southeast coast.

00:47Now, not much right now. Let's take a look at the satellite.

00:50We highlighted the area, Alex. You can see how the frontal boundary has stalled across Florida.

00:55Actually, there were more thunderstorms in this area yesterday than what we are seeing currently.

01:01But things will start changing in this part of the Atlantic beginning late Friday night.

01:09Yeah, I don't think we're going to be seeing a lot over the next 24 to 36 hours.

01:12But tomorrow night, I think pressures are going to start to lower east of Florida,

01:17and you're going to start to get that development.

01:19But like you say, Bernie, you always say this, the low has to sit over that area for about 48 hours or so.

01:25So nothing immediate, but we're definitely going to have to watch things over the weekend for some gradual development.

01:31Of course, water temperatures here, Alex, really never a problem.

01:35I mean, for development, we need about 78.

01:37These seem to be running a tick or two above the historical average.

01:42Yeah, that's right.

01:43And especially over the Gulf Stream, that's that really warm water current that runs east of Florida

01:47and up through the Carolinas.

01:48That is, I think, where this low is going to try to form.

01:51A lot of times, these areas of low pressure, they kind of look for the warmest ocean waters to kind of form.

01:57And I think the low might try to consolidate over that Gulf Stream water.

02:00And that's what would give it that energy.

02:03Always with homegrown development, you're always, always dealing with wind shear,

02:09winds that are strong in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere.

02:11And you can see the area right now, Alex, north of the Bahamas in that dark purple.

02:17We do have quite a bit of wind shear, and that's a limiting factor over the next 24 hours.

02:22Yeah, it certainly is.

02:23And this is why we don't expect much to go on here over the next 36 hours or so.

02:27The wind shear essentially will kind of knock over those thunderstorms and really prevent any development.

02:31But even after things really start to come together, the wind shear is going to be moderate, I think, in that area,

02:37which is going to prevent any explosive development.

02:40And we don't expect this to become a hurricane or anything like that.

02:43But a tropical storm is certainly on the table.

02:46There will be some downpours.

02:47Certainly there's already going to be downpours this weekend in Florida.

02:50The real question is, is the structure of the storm.

02:54Do we see a lot of showers and thunderstorms on the northwestern side,

02:58in which case then we'd be worried about some locally heavy rain along the Carolina coast?

03:03That's a little up for debate.

03:05But certainly as this organizes, Alex, we're going to have some problems here with some rough surf.

03:12But again, this is a graphic we've had quite a long time.

03:16We've been talking about it, Alex.

03:18But again, when you look at what this could do to the coastal Carolinas,

03:23just on the form of some rough surf, that is going to be a concern this weekend.

03:28Yeah, it certainly is.

03:29Confidence is high for Florida getting a lot of rain.

03:31And then when we look up into the Carolinas, that's going to depend on the exact track of what forms here.

03:36It could just get buried right into, like, South Carolina, you know, early in the weekend.

03:41Or it could meander around the coast.

03:43If it meanders just offshore, that can create a larger swath of rain along the Carolina coast there.

03:50But beach problems, I think there's going to be a rip current risk as well.

03:53So if anybody's going out to the beaches, just be careful out there,

03:56because it looks like there's going to be some high surf either way.

03:58The rest of the Atlantic remains quiet.

04:02Yeah, it certainly does.

04:03A lot of wind shear and a lot of dry air.

04:05Nothing unusual.

04:06This is what we expect at the beginning of July.

04:08But I can tell you that the rest of the Atlantic looks quiet.

04:11So the only threat right now is the thing off the southeast coast.

04:15All right.

04:15AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva.

04:18Alex, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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