00:00All right, joining me right now is AccuWeather severe weather expert Guy Pearson.
00:04You know, Guy, the thunderstorms, the complex that we're tracking across Oklahoma and Arkansas,
00:10thankfully, was not nearly as strong as the complex that we were tracking this time yesterday.
00:19Yeah, it was one of those things that two nights ago, that overnight thunderstorm complex
00:24that went through Wichita was very impressive, 100-plus mile an hour, lots of widespread, 80-plus mile an hour.
00:31You fast-forward 24 hours, and sometimes that, you know, the environment itself just takes a little bit longer
00:37to regenerate and get back to what were the levels from the night before.
00:41So the storms that went through and developed across northern Oklahoma, southern Kansas yesterday,
00:46while they had some hints of rotation on occasion, produced some more damaging wind, unfortunately,
00:52but not nearly to the level of what we saw the night before.
00:56There's our upper piece of energy today, Guy.
00:58Again, it continues to lift to the east-northeast.
01:00Not quite as strong as I thought it would be yesterday,
01:04but what are the tools that we use to help diagnose not only the strength,
01:08but perhaps the timing of the severe weather is the low-level jet.
01:13We're looking at the winds at around 5,000 feet.
01:16The stronger the winds, the stronger the energy.
01:18And you can see, first of all, that this is coming into a steamy air mass, 70s Chicago, 75 Peoria, 82 Indianapolis.
01:26But that low-level jet into that steam, you know, it is a little concerning early this afternoon.
01:35Yes, it certainly is.
01:37We've got the wind energy that's going to be increasing this afternoon.
01:41You couple that with the steamy environment we already have,
01:44but you also have some of those storms that we just talked about south of Indianapolis there.
01:50Those have intensified a little bit here lately with some 60-mile-an-hour winds.
01:54But sometimes those storms that we have in the morning here actually put down additional boundaries.
01:59So as we get into later this afternoon and the main part of the storms come through,
02:04coupled with the winds here, now we've got a little extra turning of the winds and things like that
02:09that can lead to additional severe weather concerns.
02:11So while you just have maybe some showers and storms across northern Indiana, central Indiana this morning,
02:17that doesn't mean that you're out of the woods for this afternoon.
02:19So as this piece of energy and, as you can see here,
02:23the wind energy increasing across Indiana later today and into southern Michigan early tonight,
02:28that's where we're going to really see the main focus of severe weather threats later today.
02:34It also seems like after about 8 o'clock, that wind field, that low-level jet,
02:38the winds are around 5,000 feet kind of weakened.
02:40So that kind of tells us that our window, usually it's late afternoon, evening.
02:45It appears as though the window for severe weather is a little earlier today.
02:51Yeah, I think with this piece of energy, it's a little weaker.
02:53It's moving a little quicker along the whole progression of everything here.
02:57So with it not deepening as much, turning a little bit more, taking more time to eject out,
03:03it's going to be a little quicker in its progression.
03:05Thus, our severe weather threat, as you mentioned there, is going to be earlier in the day,
03:09you know, earlier afternoon hours into the evening hours probably at best.
03:14All right, future radar, here's what we look at.
03:16And this is where it really seems to be at its strongest point, Guy.
03:20We'll stop it here, future radar, at 1 o'clock local time or 1 o'clock central.
03:25Yeah, it's one of those that, you know, we saw some of the storms develop here across the plains earlier yesterday.
03:34We just didn't quite have that cap or that warmer level aloft to really keep things in place before the thunderstorms developed.
03:43And so this is what we're sort of looking at again today is, you know, the whole segment here really blowing up earlier in the day.
03:49Our piece of energy of ejecting out is a little earlier.
03:53And so, you know, certainly early afternoon, lunchtime hour or shortly thereafter for a lot of places, be on the lookout.
03:59And as we go through the afternoon, unfortunately, the evening commute can be quite problematic for several cities across, you know, southern Michigan, Indiana, and then into western Ohio.
04:12And then as we get into the evening hours, you can really see the storms and the line of storms itself really decreasing in intensity as they move east.
04:20That severe weather risk, Detroit, Cleveland, Indianapolis, where we have the numerous risks.
04:25We did not go with a high risk because we don't think the severe thunderstorms are numerous.
04:31Wind and hail, the main threats here.
04:33But, you know, this is an area really quick that we've been highlighting.
04:36If we see tornadoes, this is kind of the area today.
04:40Yep, I think so.
04:44You know, that combination of, like I talked about, some of the showers and storms across Indiana this morning, potentially putting down additional boundaries.
04:50We get that early afternoon with the push of winds aloft.
04:54I think we'll have some of those leftover boundaries.
04:57We'll have a little bit of that wind changing with direction that we like to see for tornadic development.
05:02So we think this is the most likely area.
05:04If we see, you know, isolated tornadoes today, this is going to be the area in which we're going to see them.
05:10AccuWeather Severe Weather Expert, Guy Pearson.
05:12Guy, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
05:14We'll talk to you a little later on this morning.
