High risk of tropical development in the Gulf

AccuWeather

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva discusses the threats in the tropics.

Transcript

00:00Joining us right now is AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.

00:04Let's first talk about, Alex, where we've been.

00:07I mean, it was quiet for the first, well, June was very quiet.

00:12Then all of a sudden, July came around, it was boom, boom, boom, three storms.

00:17Yeah, we've been talking about, ever since we released our forecast,

00:20that we thought it could be a fairly busy start to the hurricane season.

00:24And for the first little while, it certainly wasn't.

00:26But then, like you said, boom, boom, boom, checking these names off the list,

00:30a couple of tropical storms, and now all of a sudden we're sitting at three named storms.

00:34And we could be looking at our fourth one in the next day or two, potentially.

00:38It was the decision was made just a couple of hours ago.

00:43Alex, you and the team decided to go with a high risk.

00:48Explain that high risk, what that means.

00:52Yeah, essentially what it means is that there's a chance that we could see some development

00:56in this area.

00:57This does not mean this is going to become a hurricane or anything like that.

01:00It just means that we might see an organized tropical system

01:03moving across the northern gulf here over the next couple of days.

01:08Right now, the low pressure area is actually already starting to form

01:12east of the northern portion of Florida right now.

01:16Yeah, there's the upper low.

01:18And again, this is classic homegrown development.

01:21Little dip in the jet stream, lifting northward.

01:23Left behind this upper low, that is going to be drifting around an area of high pressure,

01:28Alex, across Alabama and Georgia.

01:32That clockwise flows should steer this into Florida tonight,

01:35then into the Gulf of America as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday.

01:39And, you know, just look at the water temperatures.

01:42It's concerning.

01:44Yeah, it certainly is.

01:45Water temperatures up into the mid-80s.

01:47We typically look for around 80 degrees.

01:49So plenty of moisture, plenty of warm water.

01:52And not only is the water warm at the surface,

01:55it's warm as you go down into the ocean.

01:57We call that ocean heat content.

01:59That's near to above average in this area as well.

02:01So this has several things going for it.

02:04It's not an ideal environment for tropical development,

02:07which is why we don't expect this to ramp up into a hurricane or anything like that.

02:11But there are enough factors working towards this developing,

02:15and that's why we upgraded to a high risk of development.

02:18It's not ideal because of the wind shear.

02:21It's not like there's not any.

02:23There's going to be some the next couple of days.

02:25Yeah, right now there's pretty good wind shear from the northeast coming down across the system.

02:30And then once the system gets into the Gulf,

02:33I think there's going to be a little bit of wind shear coming out of the east.

02:35Now, it's going to be moving, I think, with that wind shear,

02:39which is not as detrimental as if it was moving against that wind shear.

02:44But I still think that that's going to be enough to at least hold it back a little bit

02:48from it getting to be a hurricane or anything like that.

02:51And again, we're not expecting development here tonight,

02:53but at some point Tuesday and Wednesday.

02:55And the fact that it's going to be moving from west to east,

02:59and it's going to be over the open waters for at least 48 hours, Alex.

03:03Yeah, it has a limited time window.

03:05And I think what's going to matter is how far south it's able to get into the Gulf.

03:09If this comes south of Tampa,

03:11and it would have more time to work with over the Gulf,

03:15and then that increases your chance of development.

03:17If it stays up towards the Big Bend more,

03:20it would have less time over the ocean,

03:22and then it probably would not develop.

03:24So a lot of this has to do with, I think, what happens over the next 24 hours,

03:28how it comes across Florida,

03:29and then where it exactly emerges.

03:32Does it emerge near the Big Bend, or does it emerge south of Tampa?

03:35I think that's going to be the key,

03:37whether we're going to see development or not.

03:39ACCUA, the lead hurricane expert, Alex De Silva.

03:41Thanks for joining us here.

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