Rapidly intensification expected as Milton approaches Florida

AccuWeather

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explains where this high-end tropical storm is forming and how it is rapidly intensifying.

Transcript

00:00Joining us now is AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. Alex is here to help us

00:06break down this storm because already, Alex, this storm has been pretty impressive.

00:11Yeah, it certainly has. It developed very quickly the other day and so it's starting to get better

00:16organized in the Bay of Campeche right now. Hurricane hunters flying around in the storm

00:22right now investigating the storm and they're finding that the storm is starting to organize.

00:27It's a high-end tropical storm right now and I'm thinking that it could rapidly

00:32intensify here over the next couple of days as it's going to be moving over some very,

00:36very warm water. Yeah, you mentioned that rapid intensification and these are the ingredients

00:42that we typically look for when talking about a storm rapidly intensifying. Can you break those

00:47down for us here, Alex? Yeah, so we define rapid intensification as a storm that strengthens about

00:5335 miles per hour or more in a 24-hour period. Now typically when we look for rapid intensification,

01:00we look for very low wind shear, very warm water, and plenty of moisture. These are the three

01:05ingredients that kind of go together to allow storms to rapidly intensify. And we certainly

01:10have all of those ingredients, but we're going to start off with the warmth that is currently

01:17ongoing in the Gulf of Mexico. You can look at temperatures now, ocean temperatures sitting in

01:21the mid-80s, Alex. Yeah, tropical systems need about 80 degrees Fahrenheit or so to survive and

01:27thrive. And look at this, we're well, well above that. Mid-80s across the entire Gulf of Mexico

01:33right now. And look across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, not a whole lot of reduction from Jalene.

01:38Jalene went through there, but it really didn't cause those temperatures to drop all that much.

01:43And I'm very, very concerned that this storm is going to track over those waters and it's going

01:48to be very warm the entire way all the way to the coast. Yeah, we were talking about this a

01:52little bit earlier, Alex, with that ocean heat content. And can you kind of explain how this

01:59plays into the idea of rapid intensification? Yeah, so we look at sea surface temperatures,

02:05but we also look at the water with depth, how far down into the ocean those warm waters extend.

02:11And that's called ocean heat content. And everywhere on this map that you see those

02:15dark oranges and red, that's where the 80 degree water temperature line is extending down about

02:20three to four hundred feet below the surface of the ocean. And so you kind of can almost imagine

02:26the storm tracking from west to east across this area. And you see that area of that big

02:31area of red north of the western tip of Cuba. That's called the loop current. And the storm is

02:37expected to move right over that area. And that's why we're really concerned that this storm is

02:41expected to be a major hurricane by the time it moves somewhere across the western coast of

02:46Florida. So, Alex, we have plenty of moisture. We have plenty of warmth. And of course, the storm

02:53doesn't really have a lot fighting against it right now. We have very low wind shear. Yeah,

02:57it's in a pocket right now, a very low wind shear down in the Bay of Campeche. And it looks like

03:01it's going to be in that area of low wind shear. I will say this. If the storm moves a little

03:06further to the north, look at all that dark purple to the north. If the storm moves on the northern

03:10side of the cone, it's more likely to interact with that stronger wind shear. And so that might

03:15help to keep the storm a little weaker. Now, if the storm is hugs more of that southern side of

03:20the cone, that's where I'm more concerned about, because it could potentially avoid a lot of that

03:25wind shear and could allow for the storm to be much, much stronger at landfall. So we definitely

03:30do not want to kind of eliminate the fact that this storm could become even stronger than we're

03:35forecasting right now, could very well be a category four hurricane in and around landfall

03:40because of those very warm ocean temperatures. And if it can stay south of that wind shear,

03:46there's not a whole lot that could stop it. Yeah, Alex, not looking so good, especially with the

03:52possibilities. Of course, we want to keep you updated here on the Accuweather Network on

03:56Accuweather.com about the latest on these conditions. But just really quickly to wrap

04:00things up, we mentioned or at least you mentioned that there is even that chance for this storm to

04:05be stronger with the wind intensity than what we're even forecasting now. But still,

04:10our Accuweather forecast is putting out a major hurricane here at landfall.

04:13Yeah, indeed we are. And we're calling for an R.I. of a four. That's the Accuweather real impact

04:19scale for hurricanes. So we are very concerned about the rainfall with this storm as well.

04:24Very heavy rain expected, a potentially deadly storm surge in and around the Tampa Bay area,

04:29especially and where it makes landfall. So and I will say this, we're going to have to watch this

04:34track very carefully for the Tampa Bay area. Right now, we're forecasting it to go near that area.

04:39If it goes to the south, that's a little better news for Tampa because the storm surge won't be

04:44as great. If the storm hits land around the Tampa Bay area and even just north of Tampa,

04:51that is where we could really see the kind of the storm surge amplified across that area.

04:56Yeah, it's just a matter of a few miles that can make a difference. Thank you so much,

05:01lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. Of course,

05:04we're going to continue to check back in with you as we head throughout this week.

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