Concerns for tropical development brewing in the Gulf

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva discuss the potential of tropical development increasing from the Gulf of Mexico, which could lead to tropical rainfall in Texas this week.

Transcript

00:00Alex, let's take you right out to the infrared satellite here.

00:03The one thing that's really eye-popping now is that growing area of thunderstorms in the

00:09Bay of Campeche.

00:10Yeah, a very impressive area of thunderstorms developing, and since we last talked, it looks

00:15like an area of spin is starting to develop down in the southern Bay of Campeche, that

00:21area of swirling clouds right there.

00:24Right over the ocean it has finally moved over the warm waters out there, but we're

00:28still dealing with a little bit of disorganization.

00:31We have what we call a low-level center underneath that cloud of thunderstorms in the Bay of

00:36Campeche, but the mid-level center is still over land right now.

00:40You need those two to be lined up with one another in order to get tropical development.

00:45So I still think we're about 12 to 24 hours away from when we could first see our named

00:50storm potentially.

00:51The hurricane hunters are going out there very shortly to investigate.

00:55Well, let's take a look at the water vapor loop because, listen, water temperature is

00:59plenty warm enough.

01:00We can make that statement for the rest of the hurricane season.

01:03But what we also look at is moisture and wind shear, sufficient moisture and light winds

01:10aloft.

01:11Yeah, everywhere where you see green on this graphic here is where we have plenty of moisture

01:15to sustain tropical development.

01:17You can see that kind of yellow and orange color backing up, backing away from the Bay

01:22of Campeche right now and ahead of the storm.

01:25So I think the environment ahead of this thing is very favorable.

01:28And the wind shear is also decreasing across this basin as well.

01:32And so I think that we can have development here in the near future.

01:36Yeah, let's take a look at the eye path, Alex.

01:39And again, we have this organizing into a tropical depression, you think, by this time

01:43tomorrow?

01:44Yeah, I think so.

01:45I think it has a really good shot.

01:46Like I said, we still need to get the storm what we call vertically stacked.

01:50You need the low-level center and the mid-level center to be stacked on top of each other.

01:55But I think that can happen here in the next 24 hours.

01:57We might be looking at a depression by this time tomorrow.

02:00And potentially, a couple days from now, we could be dealing with a tropical storm.

02:03All right, let's take a look at a couple of other areas, Alex.

02:06Let's go well out in the, well, first of all, heavy rain is a big story here.

02:11Houston, Corpus Christi, we have 8 to 12 inches.

02:14There'll be some downpours today.

02:16And then we'll bring in the heaviest rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

02:20Watch yourself also, San Antonio and the Hill Country, possibly some heavy rain.

02:24Let's take you out in the southwest Atlantic, a little swirl here, well to the east of Florida.

02:29Yeah, a little swirl east of Florida.

02:31And again, this is considered homegrown development.

02:34We look close to the United States during the months of June and July.

02:38This is still close enough to be considered homegrown development.

02:41This area is going to swing to the west here over the next couple of days.

02:44And the hurricane hunters might actually be flying out in this thing tomorrow to investigate

02:49whether we have a swirl of thunderstorms.

02:51Either way, through the rest of the week, we'll be tracking this thing as it moves west

02:54towards the United States.

02:57And then potentially towards the end of the week and into next weekend, it could approach

03:01the U.S.

03:02We're also checking in on the Bay of Campeche again for the end of this week, as well as

03:07another area may break off from what we call the Central American Gyre, that big swirl

03:12of thunderstorms over Central America.

03:15We might have another piece of thunderstorms break away from that and move into the Bay

03:19of Campeche at the end of the week.

03:20So a lot to look forward to here over the next week or so, Bernie.

03:24A lot to watch.

03:25Yeah.

03:26Al Acua, the lead hurricane expert.

03:27Alex DaSilva, thanks for joining us.

03:30We'll keep an eye on things.

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