Increased risk of tropical activity heading into November

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva and Bernie Rayno warn of the increased risk of tropical activity in the Caribbean and Atlantic as we move into the month of November.

Transcript

00:00Alex, let's talk about the Caribbean and another area that we're watching here for development

00:06in the next couple of days.

00:08Yeah, well the season is certainly not over yet.

00:10The tropical Atlantic tropical season goes until the end of November, so we still have

00:15another month that we have to pay very close attention.

00:18Now, this time of year we typically look a little bit closer to home and look what we

00:21have here.

00:22We have two different areas that we're watching for development.

00:24The area in the Caribbean, I agree with you Bernie, I think this area is certainly going

00:28to develop.

00:29The area to the north of the islands there, that's on the tail end of a cold front.

00:32I don't think that's going to be any kind of threat to the United States and that may

00:35just get sheared apart up there as the environment is not very favorable up in that area.

00:40It's the pattern that we saw over a week ago that pointed us down into the Caribbean.

00:46That is we have a big high pressure system now off the east coast that forced the front

00:50south into the northern Caribbean and south of that front you're already starting to see

00:55thunderstorms develop.

00:57Yeah, we're starting to see stuff.

00:59If you look just north of Panama City, they're way, way, way south in the Caribbean there.

01:02We're starting to get a little bit of activity developing.

01:05I don't think anything's going to happen in the near term.

01:07The environment is quite hostile there right now, but look at these water temperatures.

01:12These are the anomalies, so how much of a difference above historical averages are we?

01:17We're several degrees above where we should be in the Caribbean right now.

01:20Temperatures there should be in the low 80s.

01:22We're more like the mid 80s, so plenty of juice to work with.

01:25The water temperatures are not going to be a problem.

01:27Here is the problem, and this is typically the problem this time of the year, wind shear.

01:32Our wind shear product is showing a lot of dark purple in the Caribbean and the southwest Atlantic.

01:37Yeah, this is why we don't think that development is going to happen over the next couple of days.

01:41It's more the beginning of November here.

01:44It's again due to that plenty of wind shear, but as we move into November here this weekend

01:48into early next week, the wind shear is really going to back off here, and that's why that

01:53combined with the water temperatures I think is going to lead to development.

01:57It's going to be a very prime environment, and so something could develop fairly quickly

02:01down there as we go into the beginning of November.

02:04All right, now the question is, is where is it going?

02:06And listen, we've had two trains of thoughts here.

02:09Depending on when you would get an organized tropical system to develop, and timing is

02:16always the key here.

02:18It certainly is, and the timing and strength of a big area of high pressure to the north

02:22is also going to be key here.

02:24If the high is stronger, that will actually push the storm westward, and that's more of

02:28that western track, and then the storm might actually kind of move towards the Yucatan

02:32and then up maybe northeast from there.

02:34If the high is a little bit weaker, that can actually allow the storm to move north across

02:38Cuba and Hispaniola, and hopefully out to sea, so hopefully there's an exit.

02:43But if the storm kind of meanders down there, that high will really build into the north

02:47and it could trap the storm essentially in the Caribbean, and then we really have to

02:51watch south Florida for potential impacts.

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