Tropical concerns near U.S. coast in second half of September

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva continue to monitor the tropics as they caution on potential homegrown storm development in the second half of September.

Transcript

00:00Let's talk about what's upcoming here as we get toward the latter half of September, Alex.

00:05Yeah, going forward here, we're going to have to watch the western Caribbean,

00:08but we're going to have about a week to recover or so. Starting next week,

00:12that's when our eyes are really going to shift to that western Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic

00:17for possible development here. We're going to also have to watch the eastern Gulf of Mexico as well.

00:22This energy is going to be drawn to the north. Essentially, it's going to be coming off of what

00:26we call the Central American Gyre, which again, it's kind of weird. We usually see that in the

00:30beginning of the season and at the end of the season. Yeah, because it's that big dip in the

00:34jet stream. That's what starts the process of the gyre in Central America. Again, this is usually

00:41June, early July, sometimes in October. But here's the problem, Alex. Historically,

00:48systems that form in the Caribbean that come northward either into the Gulf of Mexico

00:53or southwest Atlantic this time of the year typically are strengthening systems.

00:57Yeah, indeed they are. A lot of times this year, you've heard us talk about ocean heat content.

01:01Essentially, that's the water temperatures with depth as you go down into the ocean,

01:06how warm that essentially that column of water is. It's at the warmest in the western Caribbean,

01:11so plenty of fuel. We're going to have a piece of energy essentially break away from the Central

01:15American Gyre, move into the western Caribbean here early next week, and then looks like

01:20something's going to try to develop and move to the north, pulled north by that dip in the

01:24jet stream you can see there. Now, will it be pulled into the eastern Gulf or off the southwest

01:29coast or southeast coast? That is yet to be determined here. But nevertheless, like you just

01:34mentioned, I am concerned about a strengthening storm, potentially a hurricane, moving north

01:38towards the southeastern United States. We're now giving you the alert. Eastern Gulf of Mexico,

01:45Florida, southwest Atlantic. Now is time to prepare for likely another storm about 10 days

01:52from now. Hurricane expert Alex DeSilva. Alex, thanks for joining us here.

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