A tropical rainstorm is developing off the coast of southwest Mexico and is expected to develop into at least a tropical storm as it moves out into the Pacific next week. The Atlantic remains quiet.
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00:00Live outside to Key West, Florida, we go.
00:04There's my boat.
00:05Oh, there it is.
00:05They're getting it ready.
00:06I love it.
00:07Yeah, it's the weekend for a little weekend cruise.
00:09All right, let's do it.
00:10Down in the Bahamas, perhaps.
00:12There it is.
00:12It's the smaller of my boats here.
00:16Put a beautiful day in Key West.
00:19It's been quiet in the tropics here, in the Atlantic.
00:23It's going to continue to be quiet here.
00:25I want to show you this.
00:26First of all, this is the amount of Saharan dust,
00:28dry, dusty air that prevents tropical development.
00:32It's not as expansive as it was earlier in the week,
00:35but we still have still a lot of dust here,
00:37especially in the tropical Atlantic here.
00:39And again, the more dust you have,
00:41the more likely you're not going to get any development.
00:43Now, you don't have a lot of dust here a little farther north,
00:45but this time of the year,
00:47and you see this with the water vapor loop,
00:49let me put this into motion.
00:50Look at this.
00:52This, my friends, is called wind shear.
00:56Winds coming in out of the west and the southwest here.
01:01So any tropical waves coming off Africa
01:04that don't get beaten down by the dust
01:07get absolutely obliterated by this wind shear here.
01:11And that's why we're not looking for anything here
01:13in the tropical Atlantic.
01:14And quite frankly,
01:15we typically don't see development in the tropical Atlantic.
01:18We see homegrown development
01:21when you get an interaction between the jet stream and the tropics.
01:24I don't see any interaction,
01:26any interaction here for the most part,
01:29at least in the middle part of the week.
01:31Now, one area we're going to have to watch
01:33are these areas in here,
01:35Bay of Campeche,
01:36Northwest Caribbean,
01:38Southwest Caribbean as well.
01:39And we do have quite a few showers and thunderstorms.
01:42You can see them here in the Southwest Caribbean.
01:45However, again,
01:46let me take you to the wind shear product.
01:48Look at all this dark purple in here.
01:50So even if this area would try to organize to come north,
01:53it gets ripped apart by the wind shear.
01:55Now, Eastern Pacific, different story here.
01:58You can see that light purple showing you less wind shear.
02:01We do have this tropical rainstorm
02:03off the southwest coast of Mexico.
02:06We think that is going to develop here
02:08into at least a tropical storm
02:10as we go through, let's say, Friday into Saturday.
02:13Just to give you an idea,
02:15it will have some impact
02:17along the southwest coast of Mexico here,
02:19but it will be moving away.
02:21Next name is Delilah.
02:23And then there's a little area
02:24we'll keep an eye on that could be Eric.
02:26It'll again be off the southwest coast of Mexico,
02:30June 17th through 20th.
02:31So we're talking as we get into next week.
02:34Now, looking ahead,
02:36just want to throw this out here.
02:37As we get into the last week of June,
02:40this upper high is going to really strengthen
02:41across the southern tier of the U.S.
02:43Always look underneath the belly of the high
02:46for tropical development.
02:47But even so,
02:48I don't think it's going to happen.