Tracking the tropics

AccuWeather

A tropical rainstorm is developing off the coast of southwest Mexico and is expected to develop into at least a tropical storm as it moves out into the Pacific next week. The Atlantic remains quiet.

Transcript

00:00Live outside to Key West, Florida, we go.

00:04There's my boat.

00:05Oh, there it is.

00:05They're getting it ready.

00:06I love it.

00:07Yeah, it's the weekend for a little weekend cruise.

00:09All right, let's do it.

00:10Down in the Bahamas, perhaps.

00:12There it is.

00:12It's the smaller of my boats here.

00:16Put a beautiful day in Key West.

00:19It's been quiet in the tropics here, in the Atlantic.

00:23It's going to continue to be quiet here.

00:25I want to show you this.

00:26First of all, this is the amount of Saharan dust,

00:28dry, dusty air that prevents tropical development.

00:32It's not as expansive as it was earlier in the week,

00:35but we still have still a lot of dust here,

00:37especially in the tropical Atlantic here.

00:39And again, the more dust you have,

00:41the more likely you're not going to get any development.

00:43Now, you don't have a lot of dust here a little farther north,

00:45but this time of the year,

00:47and you see this with the water vapor loop,

00:49let me put this into motion.

00:50Look at this.

00:52This, my friends, is called wind shear.

00:56Winds coming in out of the west and the southwest here.

01:01So any tropical waves coming off Africa

01:04that don't get beaten down by the dust

01:07get absolutely obliterated by this wind shear here.

01:11And that's why we're not looking for anything here

01:13in the tropical Atlantic.

01:14And quite frankly,

01:15we typically don't see development in the tropical Atlantic.

01:18We see homegrown development

01:21when you get an interaction between the jet stream and the tropics.

01:24I don't see any interaction,

01:26any interaction here for the most part,

01:29at least in the middle part of the week.

01:31Now, one area we're going to have to watch

01:33are these areas in here,

01:35Bay of Campeche,

01:36Northwest Caribbean,

01:38Southwest Caribbean as well.

01:39And we do have quite a few showers and thunderstorms.

01:42You can see them here in the Southwest Caribbean.

01:45However, again,

01:46let me take you to the wind shear product.

01:48Look at all this dark purple in here.

01:50So even if this area would try to organize to come north,

01:53it gets ripped apart by the wind shear.

01:55Now, Eastern Pacific, different story here.

01:58You can see that light purple showing you less wind shear.

02:01We do have this tropical rainstorm

02:03off the southwest coast of Mexico.

02:06We think that is going to develop here

02:08into at least a tropical storm

02:10as we go through, let's say, Friday into Saturday.

02:13Just to give you an idea,

02:15it will have some impact

02:17along the southwest coast of Mexico here,

02:19but it will be moving away.

02:21Next name is Delilah.

02:23And then there's a little area

02:24we'll keep an eye on that could be Eric.

02:26It'll again be off the southwest coast of Mexico,

02:30June 17th through 20th.

02:31So we're talking as we get into next week.

02:34Now, looking ahead,

02:36just want to throw this out here.

02:37As we get into the last week of June,

02:40this upper high is going to really strengthen

02:41across the southern tier of the U.S.

02:43Always look underneath the belly of the high

02:46for tropical development.

02:47But even so,

02:48I don't think it's going to happen.

Category

Transcript

Recommended