Tropical rainstorm tracking towards Southeast US

AccuWeather

A tropical rainstorm is barreling through the Caribbean islands, and its eye path is expected to travel to the Florida Panhandle and continue into the southeastern coast of the U.S. this weekend.

Transcript

00:00A lot of the modeling was showing that this was going into the western panel of Florida

00:04here at AccuWeather. We did not believe that. We issued our IPATH map earlier than anybody.

00:11In fact, we're the only ones known sources that I know of that still has an IPATH. We'll get to

00:18that in a second. Let's get your impressions of our tropical rainstorm right now, looking at it

00:23on the infrared satellite. Right, Bernie, that's right. Good morning. We issued that

00:28exclusively, that first IPATH, so that people can be better informed and stay safer. That's

00:34what we do here at AccuWeather. Share the information that we have in order to help

00:38you best prepare. And we are concerned about this situation on a couple of reasons. One is

00:44this is heading into a part of the Gulf of Mexico here over the next couple of days that's infamous

00:49for storms rapidly intensifying. So we think we could be dealing with a stronger entity here as

00:56it heads into the Gulf of Mexico. And then down the road, Bernie, looks like this is going to

00:59slow down and prolong impacts across the southeast. Let's talk about the intensification.

01:06You can see this map now. This map has not changed. You and I actually drew this map last

01:11week when we were going over this. We always knew that when it got into the Gulf of Mexico,

01:16everything is lined up for development. And historically, this is an area that storms tend

01:22to really intensify quickly. And part of the reason is the warm water temperatures. And they're

01:27even warmer than they normally are. They sure are. Look at that map. That is incredibly warm water,

01:34not only just right at the surface of the ocean, but also through a depth of the ocean. That's

01:40power. That's energy that a developing tropical system, tropical rainstorm, depression, and

01:46eventually in a tropical storm can use in order to gain wind intensity quite rapidly. The problem is,

01:51Bernie, that part of the Gulf of Mexico is known for those storms intensifying quickly. That's why

01:57we're concerned about dealing with a tropical storm and perhaps even a hurricane as the storm

02:01approaches Florida. I want to show you the current wind shear. Still a little wind shear, that dark

02:05purple shading that we're seeing right now. But here's the problem. Less wind shear in that area

02:12historically where we see storms go to town with the delta. Now, you and I were talking about this.

02:18We're talking about the west coast of Florida, not the east coast of Florida. But historically,

02:23when history tends to repeat itself, there's a couple of areas that are very prone

02:29to hurricane or named storm landfalls along the west coast of Florida.

02:35Yeah, that's right. Especially that area, the Big Bend portion of Florida, the Florida coastline,

02:41and then also south of Tampa, down toward Fort Myers and Naples. Those are the historically

02:46favored areas for landfalling storms. Doesn't mean that storms can't make landfall elsewhere,

02:51but those are the areas that sometimes we hone in on because history tells us that's more common.

02:56It is very rare for a landfalling storm to come into the Tampa area. Doesn't mean it can't happen,

03:02but you know what, John? History tends to repeat itself with these tropical systems. And you can

03:09see some of the footage that we have seen. I want to show you this, John. This is our eye path as we

03:15go forward here, John, because listen, right now we're thinking near the Big Bend of Florida,

03:20but it is certainly possible that we could be looking at a landfalling storm south of Tampa

03:27toward the Fort Myers, Sarasota area. If that happens, that would be more likely Sunday morning.

03:35If it's farther north, it's Sunday night. And that has ramifications for the intensity.

03:40It sure does because the longer it's out over the Gulf of Mexico,

03:43that warm water in a favorable condition for further intensification, the more intense the

03:48storm can be. That's why we always tell, recommend people to not focus only on the center point of

03:53where the storm is tracking, but that window of movement, the edges there. So everyone along the

03:58west coast of Florida certainly needs to be aware of potential landfall there. And there will be

04:03widespread impacts beyond just where the landfall occurs with the risk for damaging winds, flooding

04:08rainfall, four to eight inches of rain in many parts of the western part of Florida. And there

04:13can be actually eight to 12 inches in some areas as well. So that's going to be a major part of

04:18this storm. People need to prepare for power outages, the risk for flooding in these areas.

04:23And again, the storm can intensify further. And if that occurs, we're going to be dealing with

04:28greater impacts across Florida and also up into the Carolinas. Don't let your guard down there,

04:33Bernie, because the indications are that the storm's movement could slow

04:36into early next week, prolonging impacts. Let's really talk about this. We're going

04:42with an AccuWeather Real Impact Scale of one, John. Let's talk about the decision

04:46to go in that direction. That's right. So that indicates, again, we're concerned about flooding

04:51concerns, wind damage, power outages, all possibility. Though, Bernie, this could become

04:57an AccuWeather Real Impact Scale 2 if we see the risk for further intensification or the storm

05:04slowing down even further up into the Carolinas where we have concerns about beach erosion,

05:09coastal flooding, and major flooding issues, especially if that storm slows way down,

05:13as we are concerned it may. Impacts along the west coast of Florida, possible landfalls, Big Bend

05:19of Florida, the Big Bite, or south of Tampa. Impacts, though, across the entire west

05:24coast of Florida. And then also, look out Carolinas, Georgia coast with heavy rain next week.

05:30Sure is. Great resource, the AccuWeather app. You can see this all on interactive maps,

05:34a free download. All right. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter. John,

05:37thanks for joining us here today.

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