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U.S. Gulf Coast bracing for hurricane impact this week
AccuWeather
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9/24/2024
A major hurricane is set to impact the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week as it tracks northward from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. It's expected to make landfall this Thursday, Sept. 26.
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00:00
And a couple of things, John.
00:01
Our initial thought was the way that dip in the jet stream was coming.
00:05
We were a little worried it could be in the southwest Atlantic.
00:08
So that's why we had a big area.
00:10
And then we refined that zone more into the Gulf of Mexico.
00:14
And it's important to note, I believe the 18th was on Tuesday when we went with that
00:18
high risk.
00:20
National Hurricane Center went with a high risk as well, but not until I believe it was
00:25
Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening.
00:28
And our concern was we wanted to give everybody enough notice because homegrown development
00:33
means you have less time to get ready.
00:37
That's the key point.
00:38
And that's what we're always focused on here at Active Weather is giving you the best information
00:41
so that you can make the best decisions to keep you and your family safer.
00:46
We always share what we know.
00:47
And Bernie, as you as we saw in the video, we had very serious concerns about this pattern
00:52
setting up weeks ago ahead of all other sources.
00:55
And that's what we communicated.
00:57
John, a quick timeline, strengthening in the storm on Tuesday, rapid intensification, intensification
01:03
to a major hurricane Wednesday in the Gulf of Mexico, landfalls, a major hurricane in
01:08
Florida.
01:09
We are targeting right now the Big Bend area as landfall.
01:14
We'll talk about the landfall here in a second.
01:17
Let's talk about where we are right now, John.
01:19
Well, we can see on the satellite loop, we have lots of thunderstorms developing, especially
01:24
on the eastern side of the storm.
01:26
It's a little bit lopsided right now.
01:28
Notice there's a lot more thunderstorm activity indicated in those reds and oranges, tall
01:32
thunderstorm clouds on the east side of the storm versus the west.
01:36
It's getting a little bit of wind shear to the west.
01:38
We expect that that will abate, though.
01:40
And today's going to be a big day for this tropical rainstorm because we expect it's
01:45
going to intensify into a tropical storm here through the day today.
01:50
And then into the Gulf of Mexico.
01:51
And then things get a little more concerning as we move forward.
01:55
John, I want to show you the water vapor loop, because the one thing we've been noting,
01:59
we noted this yesterday, there was a lot of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and dry air
02:03
can prevent tropical systems from developing.
02:07
But what we thought would happen is, is that instead of that dry air coming into the center
02:11
of circulation, it would get pushed away.
02:15
And boy, that looks like that's the right call, given what we're looking at right now.
02:20
That's exactly what it looks like.
02:21
It's doing it.
02:22
It's interesting.
02:23
That's the first thing I looked at this morning when I started analyzing the situation, the
02:27
water vapor loop, to see if that moisture was being drawn to the north.
02:31
And look at the blue colors being drawn, green colors being drawn north into the Gulf of
02:36
Mexico.
02:37
So that's the area where there's less wind shear.
02:38
And it looks like, as we expected, that that moisture is coming along with the storm.
02:43
One thing I've also noticed, and this was pointed out by Alex De Silva, and you can
02:46
see it.
02:47
Look at that arcing band of moisture toward the Florida Keys.
02:51
And you know what?
02:52
It's arcing in a clockwise rotation.
02:56
And that tells you you have good outflow as this gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
03:01
So that's two out of the three ingredients we need, increasing moisture, lowering wind
03:07
shear.
03:08
And, you know, John, the water temperatures have already always been warm.
03:12
This is one product we look at.
03:14
Yeah, this isn't even close of a concern here.
03:16
This water is, in some cases, record warmth, running four to six degrees above the long-term
03:23
historic average.
03:24
It's not only right at the sea surface, as you see in this plot, but it's also deep,
03:29
several hundred feet deep in the Gulf of Mexico in some locations.
03:33
And it looks like, look at the track of the storm, it's going to go right over the deepest
03:37
water with the highest temperature and a little loop current, as we call it.
03:42
And that's why we're expecting this storm to rapidly intensify.
03:46
And when storms do that, that's when they bring even greater impacts.
03:50
That's why we're concerned about the storm surge, about the damaging wind and the rain
03:54
potential.
03:55
And when you look at our eye path, John, now, listen, I'm going to tell everybody, you and
03:58
I disagree just a little bit on this eye path.
04:00
And this is and this is where conflict is good.
04:05
I'm worried it's a little farther west, just the shade toward Apalachicola and maybe as
04:12
far west as Panama City Beach.
04:15
You're worried that it could be a little farther down the coast in Florida, just north of Tampa.
04:20
Yeah, I'm a little worried it could be a little bit further east.
04:23
But see, Bernie, this is the point.
04:25
This is why the power of active weather with our team of over 100 expert meteorologists
04:30
debating, having these kinds of debates like you and I just did.
04:33
And that's why we have a window of movement.
04:35
So don't focus only on that center track line.
04:38
Of course, that's important.
04:40
But notice the left and right side of that window.
04:42
We we are making a decision about where we're going to put those left and right boundaries
04:47
to indicate where the storm could be located at a time to communicate the uncertainty as
04:51
we get closer and closer.
04:53
And once the storm actually develops a low level center, we'll be able to shrink that
04:57
window of movement.
04:58
So we'll be more confident about exactly where it's headed.
05:01
That's why you need to be prepared on the west coast of Florida, all the way up toward
05:05
up portions of the Mississippi coast and be checking with active weather more frequently
05:09
than usual.
05:10
Yeah, you and I made the decision.
05:11
Let's wait until Tuesday afternoon.
05:13
And I think we're going to wait until this afternoon to make that a little smaller, be
05:17
on the safe side.
05:18
All right.
05:19
Accuweather chief meteorologist John Porter.
05:20
John, thanks for joining us here today on Accuweather Early.
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5:08
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