Tropical threat developing right now could pose a serious risk to the Southeast

AccuWeather

AccuWeather forecasters say a hurricane could be moving from the Gulf of Mexico into the Florida coast by the final days of August.

Transcript

00:00 been tracking the tropics, Melissa, for quite some time that we have. We've got

00:04 a disturbance in the tropics, especially working its way through the Caribbean.

00:08 And this is going to be impactful, possibly for the floor sunshine state.

00:12 So Florida as we go through time, but before we talk about some of the

00:16 storms, then in the northeast to we want to continue to focus in on this

00:19 tropical threat, which is expected to arrive early next week. Let's take

00:23 things over to chief meteorologist John Porter, who has the breaking news.

00:28 Well, good afternoon. That's right. Accuweather hurricane experts have just

00:32 issued our first track, our first window of movement exclusively here

00:37 from Accuweather before any other source on this developing tropical

00:41 rainstorm. And in fact, what we're dealing with is it looks like it

00:46 doesn't look too ominous right now. It's a cluster of showers and

00:49 thunderstorms off the Yucatan Peninsula in western Cuba

00:52 slowly drift to the north and conditions will start to become more

00:57 favorable for this storm to gain wind intensity and intensify as we head into

01:03 later in this weekend and into early next week. So here's the setup, and

01:08 here's why we're concerned about Florida and other parts of the

01:11 southeastern United States. First, it's going to be encountering very warm

01:15 water in the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures between 86 and 88 degrees

01:19 Fahrenheit prime for a tropical storm to develop. And in fact, the water is

01:23 above nor it's above historic average in terms of the temperature that water

01:28 by some 2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit. So right now we're gonna have we have

01:31 strong winds that are going to sort of put a cap on how how intense this

01:37 system can get over the weekend. So this is going to be a slow developing

01:41 system by the time later Sunday comes around. The storm is still going to be

01:44 a rainstorm, not very intense from a wind intensity perspective off the

01:48 coast of the Yucatan. But that wind shear those unfavorable winds in the

01:53 atmosphere will start to relax here into early next week, and that's why

01:57 the Gulf of Mexico is going to be open for business here as the storm

02:01 intensifies as it moves to the north in that warm water and a more favorable

02:05 atmospheric setup here. And again, a storm is going to be tracking toward

02:09 Florida. The key to this forecast is going to be a couple of things. First,

02:13 how Franklin evolves in the open Atlantic. So we're gonna be watching

02:16 that very closely, and our hurricane experts are also going to be watching

02:20 this dip in the jet stream coming down from the Great Lakes. Those steering

02:24 winds will start to draw the storm to the north, and that's why we think

02:28 Florida or portions of the Gulf Coast could be where this storm is headed as

02:35 we head into early to mid next week. So here it is. This is the exclusive

02:39 window of movement from our Accuweather hurricane experts. You

02:42 notice lots of areas of low pressure off the Mexican coast here. That means

02:46 the storm is not gonna be moving very much, as we mentioned through Monday

02:49 morning. But then it's going to start to accelerate here as it heads off to

02:53 the north and east and notice a tropical storm by eight a.m. Tuesday,

02:57 and we're forecasting a category one hurricane to be in the Gulf in the

03:02 eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico by eight a.m. Wednesday. So it looks like

03:06 that would be the threat here on Tuesday night into the first part of

03:09 Wednesday for potential landfall in Florida. But I want to stress there's

03:14 plenty of time here for to prepare to be thinking about your hurricane action

03:18 plans and don't focus on the central center track of the storm. Look at the

03:23 window of movement on the left and right side. That indicates the

03:25 potential area that the center of the storm could be. And these storms,

03:29 tropical storms and hurricanes have impacts over a broad area. So anywhere

03:33 along the eastern Gulf of Mexico, you want to pay attention to this and also

03:37 further north because the storm is going to be drawn up into portions of

03:41 Georgia and the Carolinas as a tropical storm in the middle of next week and

03:46 with a lingering front in the area, that could be the recipe for some

03:49 significant flooding. So flooding, rain and wind will be a concern and

03:54 potentially some storm surge concerns as well. Stay tuned. Accuweather

03:57 frequently here over the coming days. We'll keep you updated on air and on

04:01 the Accuweather app and Accuweather dot com.

04:03 All right, Accuweather chief meteorologist John Porter. They're

04:07 sharing with us about that rain, especially through Georgia, South

04:10 Carolina. They haven't had much this year, so I can see where that flooding

04:13 threat would be a big factor.

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