Florida could be in the crosshairs of future Tropical Storm Sara

AccuWeather

The system expected to become Tropical Storm Sara will bring extreme rainfall to Central America, but it could also be a danger to Florida.

Transcript

00:00It has been a very busy second half of hurricane season, Bree, and the tropics are not done yet.

00:06No, not done yet. We are in the last month of tropical season, but don't let that fool you.

00:11Can't keep your guard down. Bernie Rayno spoke earlier with AccuWeather lead hurricane expert

00:15Alex Da Silva about an area in the Caribbean that should have people in the southeast concerned

00:21as we move into next week. You had mentioned to me this yesterday, you were concerned not

00:27only of a hurricane, that this was going to go to a major hurricane by the time we get into the

00:32weekend here. A major hurricane, maximum staying winds of at least 111 miles per hour. Yeah, I

00:37think certainly we'll be dealing with a hurricane by the end of this week, and I think we'll be

00:40dealing with a major hurricane at least no later than this weekend here. Again, all the conditions

00:45are coming together for this to rapidly intensify. Again, we have plenty of moisture, low wind shear,

00:50very, very warm water temperatures and ocean heat content. I don't really see a whole lot that could

00:54prevent this from really exploding into a major hurricane. I guess the only thing I really see is

00:59potential land interaction. The storm could get close to Central America, and if it gets close to

01:04Central America, it could kind of tangle with the land a little bit there, and that could, you know,

01:08prevent this from getting really, really powerful. But either way, I do expect a strong hurricane to

01:13be in the western Caribbean here over the next couple of days. All right, really quickly here,

01:17this system kind of meanders around in the Caribbean or in the northwest Caribbean as we

01:22head toward the weekend, and then here's the problem. High pressure. We were hoping that high

01:26would stay maintained across Florida and drive this away from the United States, perhaps moving

01:32west. There's nothing that suggests that any longer, though. That high leaves, then you have

01:38that dip in the jet stream coming in across Texas, and that is why the window's open for Florida.

01:44Yeah, it certainly is. We're expecting a turn to the north sometime, and you know, it's going to

01:48depend how close it gets to land to see how strong it gets in the Gulf of Mexico. If it can avoid land,

01:54if it can kind of take more of that eastern side of our cone here, it could avoid a lot of that

01:58land, and we could be dealing with potentially even a major hurricane in the southern Gulf

02:02of Mexico here. Now, a better case would be if it goes into land here. It kind of disrupts the

02:08circulation, but either way, I think the residents of Central and South Florida need to watch this

02:13very, very carefully, as we could very well have a hurricane on their doorstep mid to late next week.

02:19AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alex DeSova. Alex, thanks for joining us.

02:23All right, let's take you to Fort Myers, Florida. You know, south and central Florida,

02:28not out of the crosshairs when it comes to potential tropical impacts. Right now,

02:33really no problems here on the horizon. You're at 83. You have some sunshine here, a few clouds in

02:38the sky, but we're keeping our eye on this story here in the Caribbean. This is going to be our

02:44next storm that we are forecasting here on AccuWeather, anticipated to become our next

02:49named storm, Sara. Right now, a tropical rainstorm, still packing a lot of moisture,

02:54but there's a lot of factors helping this storm, or at least playing into the story,

03:01or at least the chance that this storm is going to intensify. It's moving over very warm water.

03:06It's going to continue to move slowly here westward. It's going to be bringing some

03:10drenching rain, some devastating impacts here across Central America, Nicaragua, Honduras,

03:16but then it's going to take a loop. It's going to backtrack to the north and to the east,

03:21and with that chance of moving north and east, it's going to move right back into the Gulf of

03:26Mexico, and then there's a chance, of course, to impact Florida as well. Why exactly are we

03:32talking about rapid intensification, or at least further strengthening of this storm?

03:37Well, the story tells it all. If you look at the ocean heat content, if you take a vertical

03:41column here of the ocean and you go down pretty far, it's warm further down you go, and so there's

03:47a lot of fuel that this storm can draw on, but you'll see that we have a little bit less, or at

03:52least the ocean heat content, lower in the Gulf of Mexico. So there are things fighting this storm,

03:58as it does move northward, but we are anticipating here it to fight its way right along the Yucatan

04:04into the Gulf, and then, of course, head towards Florida. That moisture content, though, it's

04:09there. It has plenty of moisture here to unleash across this zone, Jamaica to Central America,

04:16and it has very little wind shear to deal with as well. You'll see that we have more wind shear here

04:22closer towards the U.S. coast. We'll see exactly how that plays out as we get closer towards the

04:27event, but keeping a lot of that risk away for most of the Gulf, but Florida, you're not out

04:32of the question here yet. Either way, we're tracking extreme rainfall here to Central America

04:38through Sunday, starting tomorrow, and that risk of catastrophic flooding

04:42still going to be running high in these zones.

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