Tropical rainstorm expected to bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast

AccuWeather

Whether or not the rainstorm heading west from Florida turns into a named storm, people in its path should prepare for the possibility of flash flooding.

Transcript

00:00Behind you, Dan, we can see some parts of Florida facing some downpours right now.

00:05Yeah, and it's been a very wet afternoon across portions of Florida north of the Orlando area.

00:09Some places have picked up three inches of rain just in one hour.

00:12Some reports of flooding and also some lightning, so certainly a very wet afternoon.

00:16One to be inside is what was the center of the circulation of this tropical rainstorm did move onshore just south of Jacksonville.

00:23Now it's crossing the peninsula, and where that center moves offshore off the west coast of Florida into the gulf

00:29will really matter in terms of the eventual final track of this storm.

00:33Yeah, we are going to be watching this very closely as we head into tomorrow and through the day tomorrow.

00:38We have our eye path of what we think is going to happen right now,

00:41but there are a couple factors we're watching that could lead to some different scenarios.

00:46Absolutely. We see a pretty wide eye path as we head into the middle of the week.

00:50Currently a pretty narrow eye path, very confident in the track here in the next 24 hours or so.

00:54Expect the storm to move off into the gulf here as we head into Wednesday morning,

00:59then move westward, and it looks like as we're taking our latest look at our track,

01:04we'll be making an adjustment to our track coming up with our forecast release at 5 o'clock this afternoon.

01:08We're going to be shifting this track just a bit to the north,

01:11taking into account some of the latest computer model guidance and the latest trends

01:15in the track of this storm as it's come across Florida.

01:18Certainly open, though, still to the west is a possibility.

01:21Could also still go a bit farther north and east.

01:24Either way, rain is the main impact from this storm, it seems like,

01:27and the intensity here expecting mostly a tropical depression or maybe a tropical storm as it moves west.

01:33Yeah, really anyone highlighted on the map should be prepared for some flash flooding.

01:37That's kind of the message that we have as far as the impacts.

01:40Now, one of the factors we're going to be watching is the wind shear in the gulf.

01:44The wind shear in the gulf seems light to moderate,

01:46which is somewhat disruptive to this system as it moves westward.

01:51That's one of the reasons we don't think that a hurricane is likely probably a 5% or 10% chance

01:55that it could become a hurricane, 45% chance it could become a tropical storm.

01:59Either way, the main message, again, is that tropical drenching rainfall,

02:04which is why this is a real impact of one on the AccuWeather Real Impact Scale for hurricanes, Anna.

02:09Yeah, let's talk a little bit more about the AccuWeather Real Impact Scale,

02:12give people an idea of what that one means and the areas that are going to be most impacted.

02:17This is an exclusive AccuWeather product, the AccuWeather Real Impact Scale for hurricanes.

02:22This storm is a great reason.

02:23It shows the value of this scale.

02:25This may never get a designation on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

02:29That's only classified storms based on wind.

02:32Real Impact does it based on every part of the storm and all the impacts.

02:36In this case, we expect it to be a 1 because of the risk of flash flooding,

02:40especially here in the southern portion of Louisiana.

02:42There also can be flash flooding in all of this, some risk area,

02:45but our area of most concern will be during the Thursday to Thursday night time period

02:49as the moisture from this moves inland across the central Gulf Coast.

02:53Yeah, there's also the chance that this storm kind of stalls out over southern Louisiana,

02:58right on the Gulf Coast, which is part of the reason for that moderate.

03:01And the AccuWeather Real Impact Scale, that number one,

03:04we're really talking about flooding and damage.

03:06Flooding and damage.

03:07This is a six-point scale, so we're on the second tier of this scale.

03:10Certainly nothing to be complacent about.

03:13If you live in any of that some or moderate risk area,

03:15now is the time to think about what you might do.

03:17If there was flooding, where you would go,

03:19what types of supplies you need if you were to evacuate

03:21with a landfalling tropical storm, for instance.

03:23And obviously, inundation is possible with that flooding

03:26over the next couple days by the middle of the week

03:28in the central Gulf Coast area.

03:31All right.

03:31Dan DePodwin, vice president of AccuWeather Forecast Operations,

03:35thank you for all of the details.

03:37You're welcome.

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