Florida in the path of another developing tropical threat

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Jon Porter warns of another tropical threat developing in the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to target Florida, bringing more torrential rain, flooding and storm surge.

Transcript

00:00We continue to keep an eye on a growing threat. We're going to keep you updated with the recovery

00:06efforts from Helene, but we're also always looking forward here, John. Now, the National

00:10Hurricane Center has lowered their probability in the Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche.

00:16Our experts have decided not yet we're going to keep that high risk for development.

00:22Now, AccuWeather experts are the only source to highlight a high risk for development.

00:26Trouble brewing in this same general area that Helene came out of. It's going to be a far

00:32different setup this time around, but we still think that time period between October 7th and

00:3710th, there can be a tropical storm that develops. All right, hot off the presses, John. You know,

00:42we've been so focused on the rain that's coming in Florida. We thought it was important,

00:47even though we are almost, what, about four to five days away from the actual event. We want

00:53to let Floridians know how much rain is going to fall and where are the areas that are going to be

00:59susceptible to flash flooding. That's right. Our team of over 100 expert meteorologists working

01:04together, pouring over all the data. We saw enough here this morning in terms of all of the signs

01:10pointing to a heavy rain and a flash flooding concern, especially from I-4 southbound across

01:17the Florida peninsula here starting Sunday and especially into early next week as well. And look

01:22at some of these totals, eight to 12 inches from Tampa down toward Miami. AccuWeather local storm

01:28max, I mentioned this about an hour ago, of 30 inches. So if there are persistent bands of rain

01:34in the same areas, we're going to end up with a significant flash flooding threat, especially

01:39across south Florida. And the concern we have, John, is messaging. Let's say this doesn't get a

01:45name, similar to what happened in North Carolina, where we had that unnamed subtropical storm.

01:52Nothing was named, but yet we had places, Carolina Beach is one of them, where we had over

02:03nearly 20 inches of rain and the massive amounts of flooding. Right over toward Southport as well,

02:09and it was a very focused area there across the North Carolina coastline. But what was the problem

02:15there? It was a repeated feed of direct tropical moisture. What do we've got next week? A repeated

02:21feed of direct tropical moisture. There's also going to be a lingering front in the area. That's

02:26also going to help create extra uplift and rounds of tropical downpours. That's a problem. All right,

02:31let's talk about this setup. Now, this is far different than Helene. This is not going to be

02:35Helene. We are not saying it is. In fact, we're going to say it's far different. And there's a

02:39couple of reasons for that. Number one, Helene was one area of thunderstorms that we can track

02:45and we can develop. But when you look at the Northwest Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, John,

02:50I mean, do the math and you don't need a calculator for this, but it is a lot of pieces.

02:56That's part of the difference with this one. It's disorganized clusters of showers and

03:00thunderstorms. And we'll see if there can be enough of a consolidation to form a tropical storm.

03:06But even if that doesn't happen, we're still going to have that heavy rain threat across Florida.

03:10Now, on the other story is the Gulf of Mexico is in a far different. Let's put it this way. It

03:15looks far different today than it did look last week. Last week, we had a lot of moisture. We had

03:20low wind shear. It's the complete opposite. The only thing that is similar this week to last week

03:27in the Gulf of Mexico is the warm water. Everything else is different. That's a great point. Look at

03:31all this dry air indicated by the oranges and reds on the scale. There's some dryer in the

03:36mid part of the Gulf of Mexico. Lots of dryer to the north. Some pockets, though, of moisture air.

03:41And that's where those showers and thunderstorms are located. I think you said that right pocket.

03:46There's a little pocket of development. Here's the problem, John. We have the warm water and we

03:53will have enough moisture. It's the wind shear that we've been talking about all week. That's

03:58going to be the limiting factor. And that's tricky to forecast this far out. It is. But I

04:03think what's interesting is we know there's going to be a lot of west to east flow here across the

04:08Gulf of Mexico U.S. coastline. So that's a given. But look at this zone. There's like a little

04:13corridor, almost a highway here in the atmosphere that could set up from the southern Gulf of Mexico

04:18over toward Florida. It points toward Florida. And that's going to be a zone where if something

04:23can develop, it would be right in here. And it may get a little help, too, from the jet stream

04:28coming south. We've seen that with other storms like Francine and also Helene. Let's go over the

04:35scenarios, John. And again, I think it's all about wind shear. There's a strong wind shear.

04:41Scenario one would be the most likely result. Right. And that would be a rather disorganized

04:47system. A hurricane would be very unlikely in that scenario, but still a heavy rain producer.

04:51But a second scenario would be a stronger storm, maybe intensifies into a tropical storm or a

04:57hurricane and then heads toward Florida. We don't think that's likely, but we cannot rule it out.

05:02And either way, a big flash flooding threat across Florida next week.

05:07John, there is a potential that Fort Lauderdale,

05:11Sarasota, someone can get 15 to 20 inches of rain with this. I think that's an important. We're not

05:18saying it's going to happen, but that threat does exist. So you need to be ready for that. The

05:22threat is there early next week. Exactly. Especially where the risks for flash flooding are amplified in

05:28the city environments.

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