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  • 6/18/2025
Bernie Rayno tracks the winds and warm water in the tropics that indicate hurricane development.
Transcript
00:00Eric upgraded here in the last hour to hurricane status. There it is maximum sustained winds now at 75 miles per hour. It's located about 160 miles here. Puerto Angel here or Puerto Escondido as well off to the south and slightly southwest here. The movement northwest at seven miles per hour. There's no question that Eric's going to continue to get better organized here. I want to show you it's in warm water to begin with, but these are the water temperature
00:29anomalies here, and they're actually running a couple of degrees above the historical average. So the water is plenty warm enough. That's one ingredient. Let's talk about wind shear here. I want to show you the water vapor loop, and I'll tell you what. What I see on this water vapor loop is look at the area north of it in here. You're starting to see this, some what we call anti-cyclonic circulation here. This is an indication that you have a good outflow or light
00:59winds in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere here. And sure enough, when you look at our wind shear product here, notice that all of this light pink in here, a light purple showing you, you have light winds aloft. You have light winds aloft. You have warm water. I think you have ideal conditions for strengthening, and that's exactly what we are projecting here, that Eric is going to become a major hurricane here late tonight into tomorrow morning. Now, it's going to be making landfall between
01:29Puerto Escondido and Puerto Escondido and also Acapulco. This is not the worst case scenario for Acapulco. I think the worst conditions are going to be across the central and northern part of Oaxaca state here, where you're going to have a damaging storm surge. Of course, rain and mudslides will also be a huge concern.

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