Where will severe storms with large hail hit in Minnesota Thursday?

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00:00Well, we have the potential for some severe storms across southern Minnesota today,

00:03followed by a cold front sweeping through tonight, a cooler, windy Friday.

00:07Sunshine is back Saturday with more rain possible by the end of the day Sunday.

00:20So we have a slight risk, level two out of five of severe weather.

00:24First time this season we've really seen this large of a chunk of the state

00:27and a slight risk for severe storms right up to the south metro

00:31with a marginal risk right through the Twin Cities, almost up to St. Cloud.

00:35We've got a pretty potent low pressure center just to the west of the Twin Cities

00:40and a lot of clouds filling in ahead of this warm front as dew points increase.

00:45So that could be a hindrance to some of our severe potential here later today.

00:49You want as much sun as possible to mix up the atmosphere as much as possible.

00:54These are forecast soundings from the high resolution rapid refresh model,

00:57which is maybe a little too warm.

00:59It's got us in the mid-70s by 3 p.m., but pay attention to the dew point.

01:02That's 49 at that point, and that's going to be key.

01:06We're going to need more moisture in order to destabilize the atmosphere.

01:09As you add more water to the lower atmosphere,

01:11that allows a parcel of air to become more buoyant to produce thunderstorms.

01:15And some of the models do have those dew points reaching the low 60s,

01:19which would be adequate moisture.

01:20But the most spin in the atmosphere to produce rotating updrafts,

01:25tornadoes, really are going to be across Nebraska and Iowa.

01:28We'll have enough to generate maybe an isolated tornado here in southern Minnesota,

01:32but really the significant tornado parameter is much higher across Iowa

01:36with just pretty low values here in southern Minnesota,

01:39at least in this particular model.

01:41But all in all, when you look at all the different dynamics and indices together,

01:45Iowa and Nebraska looking more favorable.

01:47But we will see some severe weather potentially in southern Minnesota.

01:50Supercell index is enough to create some stronger storms.

01:53The biggest threat is going to be probably hail for us

01:55and maybe an isolated wind gust in southern Minnesota.

01:58But enough instability.

01:59This is 3 o'clock this afternoon.

02:01But again, it's all dependent on sunshine and those higher dew points.

02:04And this is really lining up with where that finger of higher dew points develops this afternoon.

02:08That'll be the sort of key indicator for instability.

02:11And we can also look at the updraft helicity tracks.

02:14Basically, updraft tracks, those are more intense across Iowa.

02:17Though we do have some stronger cells potentially with some of those updraft tracks here

02:21in south central Minnesota too.

02:23So we've got that slight risk, isolated tornado risk, 2%.

02:26But again, highest here right around the Omaha area.

02:30But a pretty large percentage probability here for hail.

02:3315% category there and maybe some isolated wind gusts.

02:36So as far as timing goes, storms could pop here right in the mid-afternoon time frame.

02:40This is 3 p.m.

02:42And then more storms kind of filling in in a line here ahead of that cold front.

02:46This is 7 p.m.

02:47And then those storms will continue to track to the east.

02:49Then we'll largely get a break late in the night into the morning tomorrow.

02:52But we're going to see kind of a secondary wave of energy come through

02:56producing just rain showers by tomorrow evening.

02:59And yes, that's snow.

03:00Again, you see in northern Minnesota.

03:02It doesn't look significant, but probably some snow showers tomorrow night

03:05into early Saturday for the northern part of the state.

03:08It will stay warm enough for liquid here.

03:11But then another system is coming through Sunday.

03:13That will bring another chance of showers by the evening.

03:15Most of the days should be dry.

03:16And then that will pull out of here Monday.

03:18But then we'll be watching to the west for another system to come through here

03:21Tuesday into Tuesday night.

03:23So kind of an active pattern here over the next several days.

03:26But a break for the most part for the bulk of the weekend.

03:29Especially Saturday should be sunny.

03:31A little cooler than normal by a few degrees, but not bad.

03:3455.

03:35Sunday closer to 60.

03:37Clouds will increase.

03:38And again, by the evening we'll see some showers.

03:40But for most of the day it should be dry.

03:43And then warmer temperatures next week, even with those chances of rain showers

03:46moving back in here Monday and then again later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

03:50Good night.

03:51Good night.

03:57Good night.

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