Skip to player
Skip to main content
Skip to footer
Search
Connect
Watch fullscreen
Like
Comments
Bookmark
Share
Add to Playlist
Report
Where will severe storms with large hail hit in Minnesota Thursday?
Bring Me The News
Follow
4/17/2025
Category
🗞
News
Transcript
Display full video transcript
00:00
Well, we have the potential for some severe storms across southern Minnesota today,
00:03
followed by a cold front sweeping through tonight, a cooler, windy Friday.
00:07
Sunshine is back Saturday with more rain possible by the end of the day Sunday.
00:20
So we have a slight risk, level two out of five of severe weather.
00:24
First time this season we've really seen this large of a chunk of the state
00:27
and a slight risk for severe storms right up to the south metro
00:31
with a marginal risk right through the Twin Cities, almost up to St. Cloud.
00:35
We've got a pretty potent low pressure center just to the west of the Twin Cities
00:40
and a lot of clouds filling in ahead of this warm front as dew points increase.
00:45
So that could be a hindrance to some of our severe potential here later today.
00:49
You want as much sun as possible to mix up the atmosphere as much as possible.
00:54
These are forecast soundings from the high resolution rapid refresh model,
00:57
which is maybe a little too warm.
00:59
It's got us in the mid-70s by 3 p.m., but pay attention to the dew point.
01:02
That's 49 at that point, and that's going to be key.
01:06
We're going to need more moisture in order to destabilize the atmosphere.
01:09
As you add more water to the lower atmosphere,
01:11
that allows a parcel of air to become more buoyant to produce thunderstorms.
01:15
And some of the models do have those dew points reaching the low 60s,
01:19
which would be adequate moisture.
01:20
But the most spin in the atmosphere to produce rotating updrafts,
01:25
tornadoes, really are going to be across Nebraska and Iowa.
01:28
We'll have enough to generate maybe an isolated tornado here in southern Minnesota,
01:32
but really the significant tornado parameter is much higher across Iowa
01:36
with just pretty low values here in southern Minnesota,
01:39
at least in this particular model.
01:41
But all in all, when you look at all the different dynamics and indices together,
01:45
Iowa and Nebraska looking more favorable.
01:47
But we will see some severe weather potentially in southern Minnesota.
01:50
Supercell index is enough to create some stronger storms.
01:53
The biggest threat is going to be probably hail for us
01:55
and maybe an isolated wind gust in southern Minnesota.
01:58
But enough instability.
01:59
This is 3 o'clock this afternoon.
02:01
But again, it's all dependent on sunshine and those higher dew points.
02:04
And this is really lining up with where that finger of higher dew points develops this afternoon.
02:08
That'll be the sort of key indicator for instability.
02:11
And we can also look at the updraft helicity tracks.
02:14
Basically, updraft tracks, those are more intense across Iowa.
02:17
Though we do have some stronger cells potentially with some of those updraft tracks here
02:21
in south central Minnesota too.
02:23
So we've got that slight risk, isolated tornado risk, 2%.
02:26
But again, highest here right around the Omaha area.
02:30
But a pretty large percentage probability here for hail.
02:33
15% category there and maybe some isolated wind gusts.
02:36
So as far as timing goes, storms could pop here right in the mid-afternoon time frame.
02:40
This is 3 p.m.
02:42
And then more storms kind of filling in in a line here ahead of that cold front.
02:46
This is 7 p.m.
02:47
And then those storms will continue to track to the east.
02:49
Then we'll largely get a break late in the night into the morning tomorrow.
02:52
But we're going to see kind of a secondary wave of energy come through
02:56
producing just rain showers by tomorrow evening.
02:59
And yes, that's snow.
03:00
Again, you see in northern Minnesota.
03:02
It doesn't look significant, but probably some snow showers tomorrow night
03:05
into early Saturday for the northern part of the state.
03:08
It will stay warm enough for liquid here.
03:11
But then another system is coming through Sunday.
03:13
That will bring another chance of showers by the evening.
03:15
Most of the days should be dry.
03:16
And then that will pull out of here Monday.
03:18
But then we'll be watching to the west for another system to come through here
03:21
Tuesday into Tuesday night.
03:23
So kind of an active pattern here over the next several days.
03:26
But a break for the most part for the bulk of the weekend.
03:29
Especially Saturday should be sunny.
03:31
A little cooler than normal by a few degrees, but not bad.
03:34
55.
03:35
Sunday closer to 60.
03:37
Clouds will increase.
03:38
And again, by the evening we'll see some showers.
03:40
But for most of the day it should be dry.
03:43
And then warmer temperatures next week, even with those chances of rain showers
03:46
moving back in here Monday and then again later Tuesday into Tuesday night.
03:50
Good night.
03:51
Good night.
03:57
Good night.
Recommended
4:34
|
Up next
Will severe weather outbreak spread all the way into Minnesota on Friday?
Bring Me The News
3/11/2025
3:54
Accumulating snow hits Minnesota on Thursday, but where exactly?
Bring Me The News
3/6/2025
4:41
Where severe storms and heavy rain is expected through Thursday
Bring Me The News
6/25/2025
3:56
Temps in the 60s? Thunder this week in Minnesota?
Bring Me The News
3/6/2025
4:10
Humidity rises, storms return: What to expect in Minnesota this week
Bring Me The News
5 days ago
4:52
Active pattern next week with rain and snow in Minnesota?
Bring Me The News
3/6/2025
14:37
Rain turns to ice and snow Saturday: How much and where in Minnesota?
Bring Me The News
3/28/2025
5:10
Several rounds of storms possible across Minnesota this week
Bring Me The News
6/23/2025
4:38
Minnesota forecast: Heat, fire danger and then storms
Bring Me The News
5/10/2025
5:21
Oppressive Fourth of July heat with storm chances through Saturday in Minnesota
Bring Me The News
3 days ago
5:34
Severe risk with overnight storms before oppressive heat swamps Minnesota
Bring Me The News
6/19/2025
4:10
Minnesota's weather is about to get more active with heavy rain and storms
Bring Me The News
6/9/2025
4:27
Tracking when and where storms and heavy rain will arrive in Minnesota
Bring Me The News
6/11/2025
12:10
Severe storms to ice and snow Friday-Saturday; significant snow next week?
Bring Me The News
3/15/2025
4:05
Rain swamps Minnesota through Wednesday before warming up into holiday weekend
Bring Me The News
5/24/2025
4:45
Another round of severe storms, risk of tornadoes Thursday
Bring Me The News
6/26/2025
3:11
Nice week ahead in Minnesota with only one chance for rain
Bring Me The News
5/28/2025
4:24
Temps climb ahead of next Minnesota storm system this week
Bring Me The News
4/14/2025
3:47
Powerful storm set to bring blizzard conditions to Minnesota Wednesday
Bring Me The News
3/17/2025
4:05
Weekend storm could bring swath of heavy snow to Minnesota
Bring Me The News
3/26/2025
4:21
Where to expect freezing rain — and how much — Saturday in Minnesota
Bring Me The News
3/6/2025
4:55
Potentially severe Friday storm could bring record heat, plowable snow to Minnesota
Bring Me The News
3/12/2025
5:13
Rain continues Friday before storm chances bubble up Saturday and beyond
Bring Me The News
6/13/2025
4:00
Active pattern could bring big weekend storm to Minnesota
Bring Me The News
3/24/2025
3:32
Measuring rain in inches as soaking storm system spins through Minnesota
Bring Me The News
5/24/2025