Where will intense storms from the Dakotas hit Minnesota?

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00:00Well, the steamy air is here. It's going to be very hot and humid on Friday,

00:03and we have the chances of some storms here, a couple rounds of them possible.

00:17So warming up today, 80 statewide, even upper 80s here in southern Minnesota,

00:21some low 90s possible in the western part of the state, and those dew points are up here around 70,

00:26so it will feel like it's in the low 90s, even if we don't hit it.

00:30But tomorrow, actual highs reach the low 90s, with dew points that could be in the low to mid-70s.

00:36So the heat index Friday afternoon could be in the triple digits for the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota,

00:42and even all the way up to Duluth and the North Shore could see some heat indices well into the 90s.

00:47So we've got that front that's lifted north, humid air in place, area of low pressure developing in the Dakotas,

00:53along with a cool front here, and that weak front is going to be the focus for the best chance

00:56of storms Friday night into Saturday morning, but we are going to see the chance of some storms

01:00before that main round of action.

01:03Today, some isolated storms possible southeastern Minnesota, maybe far northern Minnesota,

01:07but in between, most of us will be dry today.

01:10We've got a cap moving in.

01:11It's that warm air aloft that prevents storms from bubbling up.

01:15And we are going to be talking about some severe weather, marginal risk for most of us,

01:18but tonight we're going to be looking at mainly western Minnesota,

01:21in particular North Dakota, an enhanced risk there.

01:24We're going to see storms develop there and then track east.

01:26Now, there are two scenarios or routes we're looking at.

01:29One is the northerly route.

01:30Those storms develop in North Dakota, then move through northern Minnesota

01:33into the early morning hours tomorrow, largely fizzling out as they move east in terms of severity.

01:38But then there is a southerly route.

01:40The NAM model develops those storms in North Dakota,

01:42but then has them diving south across central and southern Minnesota,

01:45maybe even the Twin Cities.

01:47Again, we're not talking severe weather here, but the leftover showers and thunderstorms.

01:50And if that southerly route happens, that could knock down our temperatures for Friday.

01:55So that's why we're going to watch very carefully that for potential heat advisories or not.

01:59Now, tonight, the cap, that warm air loft, is largely in place across central and southern Minnesota.

02:03So I think the northerly track is the most favored one.

02:06And regardless, the severe threat is mostly in North Dakota, no matter which scenario plays out.

02:12That's where we'll see the severe wind gusts maybe pushing into far northwestern Minnesota.

02:16And then during the day tomorrow, steamy, the cap pretty much covers most of the state with that warm air loft.

02:22But cooler air moving into the middle levels will destabilize things as we head into tomorrow night,

02:26and that cap will shift to our southeast.

02:28So Friday into Friday night, the severe weather threat is starting to expand here.

02:33Much of the western half of the state in the slight risk.

02:36In northwestern Minnesota, in that enhanced risk, that's a level three out of five.

02:40And as we mentioned, that cooler air aloft moves in too.

02:42So by the time we head into early Saturday, the cap is gone.

02:46So storms happening Friday night into Saturday will have no problem as far as those mid-level temperatures.

02:51So it looks as though those storms, once again, develop in the Dakotas Friday evening.

02:55Tracking east across the state here.

02:57This is 11 p.m. on the NAM model, 1 a.m. on the NAM model coming to the Twin Cities.

03:02Now, this is the fastest of the models.

03:04We may be waiting until Saturday morning to see those storms.

03:07But just giving you an idea of kind of the layout of those storms,

03:10the timing may differ, but generally that coverage looks to be pretty similar in most of the models.

03:16And then Saturday into Saturday night, the severe threat shifts to the southeast.

03:19Southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin, that's where that front will be.

03:22And we're also, of course, watching the instability.

03:24A lot of it in the Dakotas today.

03:25That's why it'll probably develop in North Dakota.

03:27And then while we will have lots of energy tomorrow,

03:30again, we're capped in the mid-levels of the atmosphere,

03:33and really the severe threat for us in eastern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities,

03:36is not real great because of the timing.

03:38Storms will either come through early tomorrow or early Saturday.

03:42And as you know, the ideal time is late in the day when we have the most energy.

03:47We'll be slightly cooler.

03:48Still 80, still above normal next week.

03:49But more importantly, the dew points do drop.

03:52It's still going to be sticky.

03:53We're not talking about that dry air we saw last week.

03:55But we'll go from 70s dew points to low to mid-60s dew points heading into next week.

04:01So 87 today.

04:03Humid, steamy.

04:04Tomorrow, even hotter, even more humid.

04:06So it will feel almost 10 degrees warmer tomorrow,

04:09even though the actual temperature will be 4 degrees warmer only.

04:13But again, the caveat is if we don't see that southerly route of storms,

04:17that could knock down our temperatures if we have morning clouds and some showers, of course.

04:22Saturday, though, Friday night, Saturday, better chance of those more widespread storms.

04:26And then we do get a little bit more stable weather.

04:29Still the possibility of some isolated thunder chances early next week.

04:32Models really differ right now.

04:34Tuesday may be looking like the most likely day,

04:36but a lot of uncertainty, low confidence in the forecast here past Sunday for early next week.

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