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00:00Ain't no rest DRS around Major League Baseball on this Monday.
00:04Why do they need it after an extended All-Star break last week?
00:08Does it matter if you played this weekend?
00:10Right back at it.
00:11A full slate Monday, which is a rarity around Major League Baseball here
00:17as the second half now fully underway.
00:20Either teams have already played 100 of 162 regular season games this year,
00:25or they approach the century mark on this Monday.
00:29DRS, two teams that had a very strong showing in the first weekend post-All-Star break.
00:35The Mariners won the weekend at home against the Astros,
00:38cutting into Houston's lead atop the American League West.
00:41Nobody a stronger showing than that of the Brewers.
00:44They swept the Dodgers in the ravine in Los Angeles.
00:48Milwaukee now tied with the Cubs for the best record in the NL Central
00:51and the best record in all of the National League.
00:55The Brew Crew and the M's square off this week in the Pacific Northwest.
00:58George Kirby gets the start today for Seattle.
01:01Brennan Woodruff on the other side for the Brew Crew.
01:04The Mariners a minus-130 home money line favorite.
01:07Over-under is 11.
01:09No way Milwaukee makes this 11 straight today in the Northwest, right?
01:13Well, it's going to be tough.
01:15It is.
01:15George Kirby, analytics love him.
01:17He's fifth on the card today.
01:18He's got a 3.31X fifth number.
01:20His last 60 days, Ben, had 54 innings pitched here and also a 10-game –
01:24excuse me, started 10 games, 54 innings pitched there and left with that 3.31X fifth number,
01:29which is really good.
01:31But if you look at the last 30 days for George Kirby, 91 batters he's faced, Ben.
01:34Here's what we like to look at.
01:35Strikeout rate, very good, 25%.
01:37Walk rate, very low, under 5%.
01:39ISO against 048, weighted on base percentage against a 205.
01:43That is fantastic.
01:44But you know what we're starting to see now?
01:46And I joked about it before.
01:47Like, hey, everybody just knows Christian Yellich.
01:49If you just look at statistics over the past month in baseball against right-handed pitching,
01:54the Brewers are on absolute fire.
01:56Terrain, great numbers.
01:57Yellich, great numbers.
01:58Vaughn, great numbers.
01:59Collins, great numbers.
02:00Durbin, Perkins, and Ortiz.
02:01Like, this is a lineup and doesn't strike out all that much.
02:04Now, the question's going to be, what are we getting out of Brandon Woodruff,
02:07who, in the past, was like, yeah, this is a guy you can count on.
02:10But we only have 38 batters this season that he's faced.
02:13His ISO against is a 237.
02:15His K rate is 47%.
02:17Now, granted, that's only 38 batters that he's faced, but 19 or so, give or take.
02:22Let's round up the 50%.
02:24That's incredible at this point here.
02:26And you look at the lineup, which sometimes leaves a lot to be desired.
02:28Probably leaning more towards an under in this spot here.
02:31But I got to tell you, you look at these two lineups,
02:34they have good numbers against right-handed pitching.
02:36But usually, for me, I'm going to weigh the pitching weighs out over the actual results.
02:41But also, Woodruff, I'm not buying into just yet.
02:44Minus 130, I think there's a good chance that that streak gets broken tonight.
02:48And certainly, George Kirby's going to be a big part of that.
02:50But I love what I see out of that Brewers lineup here over the past 30 days.
02:55Yeah, Brandon Woodruff back for Milwaukee, which is a great sign for the first time in more than a year.
03:01Good to have him back.
03:02In Milwaukee, of course, the hottest team in baseball, DRS, 10 straight wins, 59 and 40,
03:08tied for the top of the division in the National League Central, alongside the Chicago Cubs.
03:13All right, elsewhere on this Monday slate to Philadelphia, we go.
03:18The Phils lost the weekend at home, DRS, against the Angels.
03:21Philadelphia struggling.
03:23They are under .500 since the start of June.
03:25But one piece that is not bad for Philadelphia at this moment, of course, it is their ace in Zach Wheeler.
03:32He gets the start tonight for the Phils against the Boston Red Sox.
03:35Minus 215 price on the Titans at home.
03:39Total eight and a half.
03:40The Red Sox entering the all-star break had won 10 consecutive.
03:45And then over the weekend, the Sox in their first series, what did they do?
03:49They lost two of three against the Cubs, but avoided the sweep yesterday.
03:54DRS, what do you expect today?
03:55Should the Phils with Zach Wheeler be that strong of a home favorite?
03:59I don't know if they should be that strong of a home favorite.
04:01It's not Zach Wheeler's fault here.
04:02By the way, Walker Bueller stinks.
04:03You want the biggest pitching mismatch on the card today?
04:06You're getting it right now.
04:07Zach Wheeler, number two on my card.
04:09Walker Bueller, all the way down, like 32 on the card today, which is ridiculous.
04:13Because why?
04:13He's really struggled.
04:15Here's what I'm worried a little bit about.
04:16And sometimes when you come out of the all-star break or before the all-star break,
04:19you're not in your routine.
04:21Like, Zach Wheeler has a longer rest.
04:23Usually you say to yourself, Ben, that's fantastic.
04:25Like, Zach Wheeler, one of the best pitchers in baseball with extra rest.
04:28Where do I sign up?
04:28That might be the case.
04:30But you know what we saw yesterday with Ranger Suarez on extra rest?
04:34He was horrendous yesterday against the Angels.
04:37Pitching location, arm slot off, walking batters left and right,
04:40which he never does against a good lineup, not a great lineup.
04:44He got smoked yesterday.
04:45So now I see Zach Wheeler.
04:46And the last thing I want to see is, well, Zach went five innings pitch
04:48and gave up four earned runs.
04:49Like, that's not Zach Wheeler.
04:50That's a good lineup today for the Red Sox that will face Zach Wheeler.
04:54I'm not saying that you can't take the Phillies, use them as a parlay piece.
04:57Walker Bueller stinks.
04:58But if I'm betting the Phillies today, it's Schwerber, Harper, and Castellanos for RBI.
05:03I want nothing to do with the minus 210 because it just might be one of those,
05:06oh, Zach Wheeler had too much off and he just wasn't himself.
05:09You don't want to bet minus 210 with a pitcher that might be off.
05:12Yeah, and DRS in that last start for Wheeler, four earned ahead of the All-Star break.
05:18Plenty more to come next.
05:19A full slate Monday around Major League Baseball does not happen often after a weekend.
05:25So enjoy it on this Monday.
05:27But it is the second series post-All-Star break.
05:30So no need for rest at this time.
05:33DRS Zach Wheeler gets to start today for Philadelphia.
05:36Had his worst start in more than a month.
05:38It is final one before the All-Star break.
05:40Four earned, given up against the Padres over two Saturdays ago.
05:45But Wheeler remains the minus money favorite to win National League Cy Young at minus 130.
05:51The guy that he is in a tightly contested head-to-head race against is Paul Skeens.
05:56Even money plus 100 price on Skeens.
06:00Is it Skeens Day?
06:02Is that 37?
06:04I'm not so great with my Roman numerals.
06:06What is it?
06:0734.
06:08Skeens Day 34.
06:09No, it's not 44.
06:13That's not 44.
06:14He hasn't made 44 starts.
06:18Not a chance.
06:19Why do we even have Roman numerals anyway?
06:21I mean, come on now.
06:22Man, I've been saying the wrong Skeens Day for a while.
06:25By the way, it is Skeens Day today.
06:26Why can't we have Skeens Day numeric numbers?
06:28What's wrong with that?
06:29Why do we have to have Roman numerals up here?
06:31Yeah, maybe we should switch it now just so the hosts don't get confused in a time where hosts need to be looking at their absolute smartest.
06:38This is we're getting ready for football season.
06:41The Buccos, DRS, a slight home favorite.
06:43Despite at home this weekend, Paul Skeens did not pitch, but they were swept by the Chicago White Sox.
06:49The first sweep for the Sox this year.
06:51We just missed by a day.
06:53Tarek Skubal and Paul Skeens for a second consecutive time.
06:57They squared off in the All-Star game on Tuesday in Atlanta.
07:01Jack Flaherty, though, not a bad pitching matchup against Skeens and Pittsburgh.
07:05Total is seven.
07:06What's the play today inside PNC Park?
07:09Jack Flaherty, not a bad pitcher, Ben.
07:11Last 60 days, 54 innings pitch a 3.84x fifth number.
07:14So I just ask you this question where it's like, OK, usually in Major League Baseball, it's just about taking the better pitcher on the mound and usually the better pitcher wins out against a solid hitting team.
07:24Detroit, one of the better teams in baseball, not playing their best on the season, as we've seen over the past week to week and a half throughout the All-Star break.
07:29But understand this.
07:31The expectations for Paul Skeens and a Pittsburgh victory are what, Ben?
07:34Eight innings pitched, one earned run?
07:36So if I'm not going to get eight innings pitched out of Paul Skeens and one earned run or less, how do you bet the Pittsburgh Pirates at this point?
07:43Case in point, we just opened the second half of the season.
07:47The White Sox just ran right through the Pittsburgh Pirates.
07:50And you're right, Paul Skeens wasn't on the mound.
07:52But that's just the level of what are we getting on a day-to-day basis out of that lineup who just feels like it's O'Neal Cruz or nobody you can bet because nobody can get a base hit.
08:01So if Flaherty gives you six and two-thirds innings pitched and one or two earned runs, why would you not just take Detroit?
08:09Skeens can't pitch 13 innings in this game to catch my drift at this point.
08:14So I'll wait it out.
08:15First five innings, if you want to bet Skeens to beat Detroit, okay, I'll deal with that.
08:19But for a game, you can't take the Pittsburgh Pirates at this level.
08:22Minus a minus money price.
08:24Well, Donnie, Skeens, one of the best pitchers in baseball.
08:26Well, if you're getting him two runs, you're still probably going to lose the baseball game.
08:30I can't take Pittsburgh.
08:32It's only Detroit for me at a slight dog price.
08:34Even though the pitching match really slants towards Pittsburgh, they stink.
08:38The team just stinks.
08:40The IRS, in the last four starts that Paul Skeens has made, the Pirates have scored a total of four runs.
08:47And that's not all with Skeens when he has been out there in line for a win.
08:52In fact, the three starts that Skeens made in July prior to the All-Star break, five innings of work every time.
08:59He was scoreless in two of the three, allowed two earned in his most recent on the road in Minneapolis.
09:07And the Pirates delivered him a total of two runs.
09:11They lost two of those three games.
09:13To Donnie's point, he can go out there and blank the Tigers in seven innings.
09:17And then he gets out and Flaherty kept Detroit in it by only allowing a single earned run.
09:21And there Detroit comes back for a victory.
09:24It is the story of Skeens this year, despite having the best ERA in baseball, a 2-0-1 mark.
09:30He is 4-8.
09:33Part of that is why we have liked Zach Wheeler in those high-leverage spots, delivering for Philadelphia,
09:38who theoretically should be contending for an NL East divisional crown.
09:42They still are in the top spot, despite struggling here as of late.
09:45It is why you go with Wheeler and the Phils instead of Skeens and the Pirates.
09:50The White Sox pulled off their first road sweep since 2022 over the weekend in Pittsburgh,
09:56their first sweep of the year.
09:58Shohei Otani gets the start tonight at the Ravine for the Dodgers.
10:02They're a hefty favorite against the Minnesota Twins, minus 162.
10:06But LADRS swept this weekend by the Milwaukee Brewers, not playing great baseball.
10:11They have dropped 10 of 12 games.
10:14They still maintain a three-and-a-half-game lead in the National League West in front of the San Diego Padres.
10:20But it hasn't been the best brand of baseball.
10:22Total tonight, eight-and-a-half.
10:24Might Shohei Otani go more than three innings tonight against the Twins?
10:29That's one of the main questions.
10:31Yeah, it's also the main question is who's coming in behind him.
10:33I think it's going to be, I'm listed as May.
10:34I want to say Dustin May, who has a 4.81 XFIP over the past 60 days through 49 and two-thirds innings pitch here.
10:41That's not very good.
10:42So, yes, Otani can hold you down for three innings.
10:44But after that, it's going to be up to May to do the same thing.
10:47Now, I don't like David Festa as a pitcher, quite frankly, either.
10:50You take a look at some of his statistics over the past 60 days, not all that great.
10:53But also, are we getting the best out of the lineup right now for the, you know, Dodgers?
10:58Because if I look and say, well, Mookie Betts is really struggling.
11:01That doesn't help.
11:02Otani's phenomenal.
11:03He's going to be pitching, and maybe that takes away from his first couple of at-bats while he focuses on pitching.
11:08Let's just remove that.
11:09But Freddie Freeman got plunked with a pitch yesterday.
11:11He's probably not going to be in the lineup again today.
11:12So, we look at a minus 190 price.
11:14If this was an Otani start, meaning one through five innings, I'd say, okay, you could deal with it.
11:19Everybody's going to bet the Dodgers are the home eventually to turn that around.
11:22But Festa's not going through a murderous road lineup right now.
11:25Like, Pahez is struggling.
11:26Kim's struggling.
11:26Edmund's struggling.
11:27There's a lot of struggling Dodgers here to still be placed at a minus 190.
11:31But most people will see Shohei Otani and say, I'll take that risk.
11:34But again, three innings out of Otani tonight is probably the expectation, which means there's going to be six innings left.
11:39I'll take the plus 160 price point.
11:41First five innings again, Dodgers?
11:43Maybe so.
11:44But Festa might be able to dance between those raindrops, as we like to say, because that's not a great lineup right now for the Dodgers.
11:49It's not, D.R.S.
11:51You look up and down the lineup yesterday.
11:53There's names you never expected to see any Dodgers uniform today.
11:56Could that be the finale on a Sunday?
11:59They were trying to avoid a sweep, and it was immediately after the All-Star break.
12:02Again, it's an interesting time for L.A.
12:05Still an incredibly short favorite to win a pennant in a World Series and still have the second best record in the National League.
12:11And a three-and-a-half game lead to win their division for a 13th time in the last 14 years.
12:15But it hasn't been overly pretty.
12:17Shohei Ohtani, five starts this year, nine total innings.
12:21Oh, it's not a great sample size.
12:22He has only allowed a single earned run.
12:24He has a one ERA.
12:26It's not a ton of work, but he has been very good when he is out there.
12:30His last start on a Saturday before the All-Star break against the Giants.
12:34That outing, by the way, the Dodgers snapped a seven-game slide before the All-Star break.
12:38Was the longest of the year for Ohtani.
12:40Three innings, probably around two to three innings tonight, we would imagine.
12:45DRS, as we keep it going, let's stay in the National League West, head out to the desert.
12:50The Arizona Diamondbacks, a home favorite today against the Houston Astros, who lost the weekend against the Mariners.
12:56Houston, 24-8 since the start of June, entering the final week before the All-Star break.
13:02They lost five of six, now two of three over the weekend.
13:06They have dropped seven of their last nine games.
13:08The D-backs, a sweep at home against the Cardinals.
13:12Can they continue that today?
13:13Booked as a favorite in downtown Phoenix.
13:16Total eight and a half.
13:17What's the play between the D-backs and the Scroes on this Monday evening?
13:21Zach Allen hasn't been very good, but Colton Gordon's on the mound.
13:24You take a look at his 226 innings pitch, excuse me, 226 batters he's faced on the season ban.
13:29An ISO against 209, weighted on base percentage of 359.
13:32Now, he's usually pretty good against left-handed batters, which again, he's a left-handed pitcher,
13:36but not so good against right-handed batters.
13:38You have a lot of switch hitters in the lineup tonight for those Diamondbacks, but you take
13:41a look at the ISO power numbers over the past month against lefties.
13:45Quetel Marte, 318.
13:46Corbin Carroll, 250.
13:48Eugenio Suarez, 833.
13:50Naylor, 235.
13:52Gritchuk, 435.
13:54Alec Thomas, 222.
13:56Let the bats eat tonight.
13:57I'm going to say that the Arizona Diamondbacks staying home after a team traveling on the
14:01road with Houston now.
14:03I'm going to give them the advantage tonight.
14:04Gallon hasn't been great, but I trust him more from Colton Gordon, and I'll lay it with the
14:07D-backs tonight.
14:08Why not?
14:09Hey, Eugenio Suarez, DRS, as you mentioned, the guy that is probably the most rumored in
14:14terms of MLB trade deadline.
14:17It comes our way a week from Thursday.
14:20Four home runs in the last two games.
14:22Second consecutive multi-home run yesterday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
14:26Again, he has been really good for the D-backs with the sweep of St. Louis.
14:30Now back to an even .500 at the 100-game mark, 50-50.
14:36A full Monday slate around Major League Baseball, so let's deliver that prop perspective from
14:42TV Tom Vecchio of Sports Grid.
14:45No, I do not forget his name, despite what my co-host forgot to ask a question might try
14:51to say.
14:51All right, Vecchio, let's break things down as we look at this Monday slate.
14:55Critical midweek set about to begin tonight in the Great White North in Toronto.
14:59It's the Blue Jays and the Yankees.
15:01The Blue Jays continue their stellar play with a sweep of the San Francisco Giants, excuse
15:07me, in the first weekend post-All-Star break.
15:10Now they have opened up a three-game lead in front of the New York Yankees once again in
15:15the American League East.
15:16But the Yanks on the road today in Toronto, a road favorite with Carlos Rodon getting the
15:21start.
15:22Kevin Gossman on the other side for Toronto.
15:24Eight and a half is that total.
15:26What do you like tonight between the Jays and the Yanks?
15:29You know, honestly, at this point, I don't know how we're not taking plus money with
15:33the Blue Jays.
15:35Like, if you just go into this, frankly, this game should be a pick-up.
15:37Like, obviously, that's not like a massive difference from where the line currently is.
15:41And we can obviously see the line move as the day goes on.
15:43But we have a team that's super hot.
15:46Yeah, you could say the pitching matchup is slightly in favor of the Yankees with
15:49Rodon.
15:50The Yankees have historically gotten to Gossman.
15:52But we have a team that's super hot.
15:54It's like, why don't we just take plus money every time that we get with a team like this?
15:58So, will the public continue to bet on the Yankees?
16:00Probably.
16:01But if that line's just going to be pushed that way, I'll just take plus money.
16:04If we get plus money from the Blue Jays in this entire series, you just need to come
16:07out with, what is this?
16:08Is this series four or three games?
16:09I honestly don't know.
16:10But you just need to come out with two of the three.
16:12Three.
16:12Get them at plus money.
16:13It's a three-game series.
16:14Listen, and if you can bet them, and then if they get out to a lead, you can take the
16:18Yankees in-game at a plus money pricing of both sides at plus money.
16:22Big week for the Blue Jays, Tom.
16:23Three games at home against the Yankees.
16:26And then they head right away on Thursday for a road trip to Detroit for a four-game
16:31extended weekend set against the Tigers.
16:33The Blue Jays could hold off the Yanks or build up that lead in the American League East
16:37by the time they face Detroit this weekend in Motown.
16:40Could be contesting with the Tigers for the best record in the American League.
16:45The Jays right now have a three-game advantage at top the American League East.
16:49You said, why not just take the plus money with the Blue Jays?
16:52When do we start to hit the plus money on the Jays to win the actual division?
16:56You know, at this point, I frankly, I think that ship has sailed where the plus 135 odds,
17:02yes, it's decent plus money.
17:05But, you know, where they were prior to this hot streak at, you know, 10 to 1, 12 to 1,
17:09whatever it might have been.
17:09Again, I still think the play would be to make a play on the Blue Jays,
17:13a longer-term ALCS type of play, Blue Jays to face the Tigers in the ALCS
17:18because you are banking on them winning the division.
17:21Therefore, they have home field to a certain extent.
17:23They may not have home field versus the Tigers at that point.
17:25But there's a longer-term play to be made rather than just plus 135
17:29because essentially you're going to get plus 135 tonight in theory or close to it.
17:33Right. Really good point as well, despite that three-game differential in favor of Toronto.
17:40The two teams that these two teams played over the weekend,
17:43the Blue Jays at home sweeping the Giants.
17:45The Braves played the Yankees at home, lost two of three.
17:49Atlanta's 12-game sub-500.
17:51The Giants playing some bad baseball on either side now of the all-star break.
17:55They face off this week in Atlanta.
17:57What do you like, Vecchio, for the opener tonight at Truist Park between the Braves and the Giants?
18:02I think the Braves aren't worth laying money on.
18:06They have at no point in the season have they proven to be worth laying money on,
18:09yet they continue to be a favorite.
18:11So I think the series is essentially somewhat of the same.
18:14It's a little bit of a different circumstance.
18:15Like, listen, neither team is playing well right now.
18:18Just take the plus money.
18:19Like, I don't want to lay money on Bryce Elder because he's not a good pitcher.
18:23I don't think Hayden Birdsong is a good pitcher as well,
18:25but I'd rather just take plus money where I can get it,
18:27especially at this point in the season when we're about a week or week and a half
18:31so from the trade deadline.
18:32Teams are going to be changing things.
18:33If we see watered down lineups with Marcelo Zuna not in line for the Braves,
18:37just give me some money, plus money where you can get it.
18:40It is crazy, Vecchio.
18:41We all know the preseason expectation for Atlanta, but now at 43-55, that's 98 total games.
18:4876 of the 98.
18:50The Braves have remained a favorite as they are tonight
18:53based on what we are expecting to see inside Truist Park.
18:57All right, Vecchio, what are your other plays for this Monday
19:00from the prop perspective on a full slate around the Bigs?
19:04Yeah, so let's turn to Mets hosting the Angels.
19:07Sanga's on the mound for the Mets.
19:09He had, was it, 67 pitches in his first start off the IL prior to the All-Star break, 67.
19:15So with this time off, I'm expecting to be at that 75-ish to 80 mark.
19:19So I like him over five-and-a-half strikeouts.
19:21The Angels have the second-highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching.
19:24Certainly like that.
19:25And let's turn to Tigers, Pirates under.
19:27Obviously, with Skeens on the mound, we're always going to be looking out under.
19:29But the Tigers' offense has not been playing well right now.
19:32They're simply not scoring.
19:33And I do think they will turn things around.
19:34It's just not going to happen tonight versus Skeens.
19:36It's not Tarek Skubel, who was brilliant last night for Detroit in Arlington,
19:41but Jack Flaherty, not a bad pitching counterpart for Paul Skeens
19:45in that pitcher's duel today expected inside PNC Park.
19:49Becky-O, thank you as always.
19:51That does it for us on this Monday on the Early Line.
19:54Show's back tomorrow, 8 a.m. Eastern on The Grif.
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