- 5/18/2025
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00:00live right here on this tuesday morning on the early line on sports grid from the mind of donnie
00:04right side your tuesday slate around major league baseball a very full one to break down for you
00:12here on tel drs longest active win streak in major league baseball st louis cardinals winning their
00:19ninth consecutive game three to two yesterday in philadelphia longest active win streak in the
00:24american league that would be the minnesota twins they have won eight consecutive games hoping for
00:30nine in a row today heading to camden yards in baltimore against an orioles team that oh boy
00:37just been wildly disappointing to start off this major league baseball season kate povich on the
00:43bump for baltimore in the o's remain a slight money line favorite inside camden is it correct
00:50drs to see the twins hoping for nine straight wins being a road dog against a disappointing
00:57baltimore team to start yeah probably so but also understand this we're on the east coast it's rainy
01:02conditions all day long 65 degrees but rain in the forecast all the way through winds blowing in from
01:07right field at 14 miles an hour it's not a great offensive day but you see the total at nine we're
01:11still expecting runs why simeon richardson excuse me simeon woods richardson not a great pitcher neither
01:16is kate povich you take a look at woods richardson on the season 118 x fit minus number if you're just
01:21using that numbers to say well i don't understand what's what's a 118 mean 100 is average anything
01:26above that means the pitcher is not pitching up to his capabilities here he's got a 4.01 uh era
01:31which isn't too bad but a 4.79 x fit number you should be able to hit him and also understand this
01:36looking at jackson holiday gunner henderson and ryan o'hearn over the past 30 days against right
01:41into pitching they've been stellar so maybe some power shots here from the left but also understand
01:45this as i just told you only 65 degrees there's rain and the wind is blowing directly in from
01:49right field now granted you do have the warehouses in the back so it mitigates some of that wind but
01:53not a great hitting environment kate povich on the other side for baltimore coming in at a 107 x fit
01:59minus which isn't bad but a higher era of 5.55 and a 4.36 x fit number overall so you just saw like
02:05okay who's the favorite going to be i do believe it probably should be baltimore but it's not one of
02:10those runaway games and that's why we're priced appropriately a couple decent guys in the lineup
02:15byron bucks with some power shots and carlos correa but they haven't hit overall as a team
02:19left-handed pitching all that well i would give the slight favorite here overall to the baltimore
02:24orioles same thing as that price point at minus 126 in drs it's not as though minnesota got off to
02:29a flying start this year before this eight game win streak the twins 13 and 27 games sub 500 the
02:37baltimore orioles 10 games sub 500 before the weekend they took two of three against the la angels
02:44to win their weekend set but again still 15 and 24 right now for baltimore minnesota back above 500
02:51courtesy of these eight consecutive wins next up we go out to the pacific northwest the yankees
02:58winning the opener yesterday plating 11 runs against the seattle mariners max freed who has been
03:05sensational in his debut year in pinstripes hopes to continue that today the yankees a road favorite in
03:11seattle minus 142 on the money line limited total the over understands at seven what's the play tonight
03:18in seattle yeah last night he did like some runs there they did get there a couple rbi props that
03:23i thought were unique yesterday were cal rally he hits a home run so does jorge polanco that worked
03:27out but today may be a different story 64 degree temperatures in the pacific northwest eight minor winds
03:32blowing out to left field so a decent hitting day there in the pacific northwest but understand this
03:37you got two good pitchers on the mound and how about this on 31 pitchers on the card today with
03:41xfip numbers number six on that card is brian will in 85 xfip minus a 3.25 era and a 3.49 xfip number
03:50which is great number 11 on the card is max freed he's got an unbelievable era of 1.05 and 87 is an
03:56xfip minus which is good and a 3.56 xfip number so even as i look at the offenses here right going up
04:02against brian will grisham's got great numbers judge has great numbers ben rice has great numbers
04:06against right-handed pitching the pitching is probably going to win out tonight now if we're
04:10looking also at a seattle lineup it looks good like seattle never looks good over the past five years
04:15what if i would have told you tonight the anticipated hitters coming into versus a left-handed pitcher
04:20seven of the nine have elevated weighted on base percentages you might be thinking to yourself yes
04:24let's get some runs now granted three to three automatically gets you a push and it doesn't
04:29sound like a lot but i do see one of those games like two to one after five innings
04:33bullpen hold it down four to three final maybe which isn't enough to get you the win if you take
04:38the over but certainly you get the push with the seven this is a tough one i lean under in this
04:42environment even though as i said we got some pretty good hitters but usually the pitchers will win out
04:46in a pitcher's ballpark yeah probably so brian woo great on that side for seattle nobody really better
04:53than max freed right now six and oh with a 105 era eight starts this year for the yanks he has allowed
05:01just a total of six earned runs drs he has allowed one single earned run in his last four starts came
05:08on a solo shot against the padres last week on a wednesday by the way yesterday at the dish you mentioned
05:15trent grisham two home runs out of the leadoff spot for aaron boone and new york aaron judge in the two
05:22hole two of three at the dish with an rbi now batting 414 this season we head to detroit yesterday
05:29in the motor city in the series opener against the red sox the tigers plighted 14 runs and had 18 hits
05:37as a team they hammered the red sox 14 to 2 today the red sox an ever so slight money line pick them
05:44favorite minus 112 now that updated number you see it there total eight and a half drs you expected
05:50runs yesterday in detroit probably not all one-sided coming from the tigers do you think we
05:56see more offense today in the motor city we could understand this though too rain is in the forecast
06:0168 degree temperatures and another double digit wind blowing in from right field so not great you know
06:06battings you know efficiency numbers here just for the weather itself and also not really hitters
06:11ballpark overall more of a pitcher's ballpark in detroit you take a look at brian baio and he comes in
06:16with a 2.01 era but a 4.72 x fit number what that means is he's getting a little bit lucky here
06:22a 116 x fit minus which is elevated as well but take a look at this this is where some of those
06:27analytical numbers don't match up with your eye test right tyler halton comes into this game with
06:32an 83 x fit minus and a 3.12 era and a 340 x fit number he said but that's all correlates together
06:39we'll take a look at the individual statistics here for that pitcher on the season for the full length of
06:44the season he's only had 72 batters that he's faced here but lefty batters 24 of them gotten the best
06:50of them as a left-handed pitcher 286 iso and a 373 weighted on base percentage in the last 30 days
06:56both lefties and righties have gotten the best of them here so are you trusting the underlying metrics
07:01of that pitcher or the damage that has been done over the past 30 days against them boston should wake
07:06up tonight but yesterday just showed me like i don't know what that lineup does sometimes on a day-to-day
07:11base just really hard to get a grasp on this game tonight for me more around mlb next longest active
07:18win streak in major league baseball make it nine in a row for the red hot red birds of st louis the
07:24cardinals nine consecutive wins trying for 10 today in philadelphia against donnie's philadelphia phillies
07:31much like yesterday the phils will enter the second game of this midweek set a home money line
07:37favorite inside citizens bank ballpark but it was the cards yesterday winning three two courtesy of
07:44a mason win solo shot in the seventh inning that was the difference to give st louis their ninth
07:49consecutive win the cardinals winning outright sunny gray gets the start today for st louis
07:55jesus lazardo on the other side for philly you saw the number there the phillies expected to end
08:03the win streak for the cards does it actually happen today drs at the bank i don't know do we
08:09actually play the game is the bigger question here raining the forecast all morning all afternoon all
08:13evening tonight we usually know how that typically plays out 65 degree temperatures wind blowing
08:18slightly out the left field 11 miles per hour more of a crosswind though from right foul pole to left
08:23foul pole yesterday we did like the under and that was a good hitting environment game ben 70 degree
08:26temperatures winds blowing out yesterday still stayed under i think we get that same type of game
08:31tonight now granted if there is rain and they play does that mean we got a rain delay noxie starting
08:35pitchers out you're dealing with the bullpens and your handicap goes up a little bit in smoke we take
08:39a look at jesus lazardo on the card today of 31 pitchers ranked he's number three with an x fit minus
08:45of 81 an era of 2.11 and an x fit number of 3.25 you take a look there at sunny gray he comes in here
08:52with an 86 x fit minus number and also a 350 era with a 3.45 x fit number two pitchers coming in in very
09:00good form against two pretty good hitting lineups i'm going the same direction i did yesterday if it
09:04plays and we don't get delays both of these pitchers should be in line for good performances and maybe
09:09we're getting another three to two outcome the phillies get the slight lean because they're home
09:13at minus 158 yes they do but i actually like to say i don't know if we get eight runs tonight but again
09:18i don't know if we play this game either yeah it's a good point drs as you said a lot of rain expected
09:23today and really tomorrow and even early on thursday along the eastern seaboard here in the
09:30east coast let's head out to the other coast by the bay in san francisco the arizona diamondbacks
09:36courtesy of corbin carroll who hit two solo dingers yesterday against the giants beat the giants two to
09:43one in the series opener between these divisional foes pretty tightly contested we expect tonight as
09:50well brandon fock gets the start for arizona robbie ray on the other side for the gigantes total
09:55seven and a half tonight out west drs what's the play today between the d-backs and the giants
10:01yeah we'll take a look at brandon fock coming into this game at a 92 xf minus which you'd like to see
10:06comparable era 3.28 and a manageable xf number at 3.68 but pitching better as of late is robbie ray
10:12he's still got a 104 xf minus which is slightly above average we look at that era at a 2.84 here's the
10:18problem that we have 61 degree temperature san francisco the marine layer will be there even
10:22though again uh donny 10 mile an hour winds blowing up the dead center field every single game it's 10
10:27to 15 mile an hour winds blowing up the dead center field that's not a change in san francisco just
10:31where that ballpark is built and where the wind actually travels but here's the issue i have with
10:35arizona we said okay robbie ray is pitching better the one thing that they didn't do all that well is hit
10:40left-handed pitching specifically over the past 30 days you do have some guys with some high elevated
10:45iso power numbers like kid tell marty corbin carroll and lourdes guriel but the rest of that
10:49lineup leaves a lot to be desired here you flip it back over to the other side with san francisco and say
10:54all right where are they coming up with against right-handed pitching should be really good right not
10:58necessarily the case you skremski chapman and ramos all high numbers here along with willie adams
11:03but everybody else not so high the walk rates though are pretty impressive for san francisco if they can
11:08work that going up against brandon fault the only problem is fault doesn't work that many people
11:12here last 30 days 4.8 on the season 4.6 so those free passes aren't coming along so once again looking
11:19at this game you know i love my overs this game looks like an under as well ben yeah seven and a
11:24half that total out in san francisco and two pretty good pitchers at least in recording some decisions
11:30this year drs nine starters qualified around mlb with already five wins this season robbie ray's got five
11:37brandon fought tied for the league lead he's got six i want to direct your attention drs quickly
11:43to max fried we talked about how great he has been six and oh matching the best record in major league
11:48baseball to begin most wins for a starter 150 era best in the bigs and yet still fourth best priced
11:56with the alci young at plus 550 i found that interesting it is interesting because usually it's
12:03really a an environment how many strikeouts are you getting and for maxford he's been okay 22 k rate
12:08but in order to get that cy young you want the low er ray you want the high super high strikeout numbers
12:13but also if you pile up wins that always helps and also the extracurriculars right the yankees are in
12:17it at the end of the season you're pitching more high leverage situations and the public understands that
12:21as well he's having a fine season so far just need to get those k's up a little bit for him that's all
12:25tarik skubel backing up his american league cy young award-winning season real good favored right
12:31now at plus 160
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