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00:00DRS today in Major League Baseball we've got a full slate an extra full slate because of some
00:06bad weather this week along the east coast a couple of doubleheaders set today including
00:11of course in Philadelphia between the Phils and the Cardinals and in Baltimore between the Orioles
00:17and the Twins the Twins and the Cards the hottest teams in the big St. Louis still riding that nine
00:23game win streak after yesterday was postponed same for Minnesota eight game win streak yesterday
00:29postponed in Baltimore DRS let's start in Philly you're there in regional Philadelphia my first
00:35question is not who wins this set of two games will we see this doubleheader today at the bank
00:40I get they're gonna try to wait it out like there's a reason why you postpone a game yesterday if you
00:45can't get it in because you can definitely squeeze in two games the next day but it has not stopped
00:49raining over the past 24 hours like I'm not looking at the window right now but before we started the
00:53show it was pouring rain it's saturated now granted we understand the tarp is over the infield they
00:58have very good draining mechanisms in major league ballparks here but at the same time if it just
01:03continues to rain and rain throughout the game to squeeze in a doubleheader not just hey let's get
01:07in five and two-thirds innings here five and a third innings and get out of town at this point I hope
01:12it plays because you have a pretty good pitching matchup in the Phillies favor particularly in game
01:15number one going up against Eric Fetty what's Fetty do well he has a decent ERA on the season but
01:20high XFIP numbers which means high walk rates and low K rates and the Philadelphia Phillies over the
01:25past 30 days against right into pitching they don't strike out all that much so the ball will
01:29be in play so if you are looking to back the Philadelphia Phillies game number one is probably
01:33your main advantage today as opposed to game number two with Gray and Nola we'll talk about the O's and
01:39the Twins on the other side but some day baseball on this Wednesday trying to make up some of those
01:46rained out games from yesterday DRS it is interesting both the Phil's and the Cardinals do have a scheduled
01:52off day tomorrow would that allow them to play before they head to their weekend strips we shall
01:58see plenty more around the big next live right here on the early line on sports grid a full Wednesday
02:03slate around major league baseball even extra full because of some double headers the Cardinals will
02:09hope to play two in Philadelphia against the Phil's St. Louis has won nine in a row the twins DRS
02:16have won eight straight their opener of their series against the O's in Baltimore rained out
02:22yesterday a scheduled double header today at Camden Yards and then the third and final game of this
02:29midweek set set for a Thursday tomorrow we'll see how many we get if we do play what do you like today
02:36between Minnesota and Baltimore it's always hard to try to predict like the second game of the double
02:41header header who's actually going to be in the starting lineup who won game number one also rainy
02:45conditions I probably would assume once again down in Baltimore looking at the conditions though right
02:49now doesn't look like it's as opposed to be adverse as it is in Philadelphia 75 degrees at first pitch
02:54for at least game number two that should ball well but game number one 72 degrees not bad same wind
02:59blowing in light from right field at six miles per hour both of these pitchers can be hit Bailey
03:04over just looking at his season so far on his X fit minus numbers sometimes it's harder to find here
03:10on these double headers uh over over there he is 18th on the card out of 31 pitchers a 103 X fit minus
03:16but an ERA of 3.50 now you might be hearing some new terminology like the X flip and the X fit minus
03:22what is the difference now the reason why you roll a lot with X fit is it's just the underlying value
03:26the pitcher doesn't matter what the actual environment is X fit minus now that we have pitchers with
03:32multiple starts and multiple ballparks that they pitched in that says you know what the baseline is 100
03:37for let's just say the American League or the National League depending where you're pitching
03:40at and sort of brings in the styles the reason this is key because one guy might have had two
03:45starts in Colorado and two starts in Los Angeles one guy might have had four starts just in Miami
03:50alone it's pretty unfair to say well his X fit and his ERA is crazy out of bounds this sort of brings
03:55that back into focus and says it does matter where you pitch in and that environment as opposed to just
04:00the team that you play so using those statistics here creeping into the season it's nice once you get
04:05about a month month and a half in you can start to use some of these extra analytical stats to your
04:09advantage Ben yeah DRS the first game of this doubleheader in Baltimore is starting early just
04:16about an hour and a half from now a little bit after noon as they try to squeeze these two in today
04:21between the O's and the Twins Baltimore a disappointing start to this season 15 and 24 disappointing start
04:27for the Twins as well 13 and 20 but they're now back above 500 because of that eight game win streak
04:34let's get out to the Motor City tonight the Tigers and the Red Sox Detroit looking for a three game
04:40series sweep in DRS we've seen a lot of runs so far in these first two games 14 to 2 Detroit wins the
04:47opener last night in the 11th inning courtesy of a Javi Baez three run walk-off home run the Tigers win
04:5410 to 9 but tonight the total just seven why the reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarek Skubel on the bump
05:02for Detroit the Tigers a hefty favorite minus 220 will Detroit in fact pull off the midweek series
05:11sweep over the Red Sox tonight they probably should you get a lot of left-handed batters in the lineup
05:15for Detroit why is that important Hunter Dobbins on the season 39 lefties he's faced a 308 ISO and
05:20weighted on base percentage of 394 if you just take a look at the last 30 days which includes only 28
05:26batters from the left-hand side still hammering them Ben 357 ISO and weighted on base percentage
05:30of 394 why is that important left-handed batters with good numbers against right-handed pitching
05:35this year Kerry Carpenter as well as Colt Keith Riley Green and the other lefties in the lineup
05:40that will play out Zach McKinstry Trey Sweeney and so forth here a lot of left-handed pitchers should
05:45give you the advantage but the biggest advantage is not the left-handed bats going against Hunter
05:49Dobbins it's the left-hander that you have on the mound pitching for you tonight in Tarek Skubel
05:54how about an XFIP minus number of 56 once again I just told you the league average is 100 he's at
06:00a 56 his ERA 2.08 his fifth number which is a 2.12 and XFIP number 2.34 absolutely filthy it's a
06:10heavy price they should win but I do think it might be a lower scoring game today why because Skubel's
06:15probably going to hold it down from maybe two runs four to two victory here possibly for Detroit on tap
06:20yeah DRS it was interesting of course for Tarek Skubel the reigning AL Cy Young winner
06:26in his opening two starts of the year he allowed seven earned runs in total lost both of those games
06:33uh-oh what's happening with Skubel in his next six starts he is one for the six he has allowed a total
06:40of four earned in these six outings and he is the AL Cy Young favorite as we speak the National League or
06:48one of the National League Cy Young front runners is Yoshi Yamamoto for the LA Dodgers he gets the
06:53start tonight out in LA against the Athletics nearly a three dollar money line price in favor of the
07:01Dodgers at the ravine minus 290 total at eight and a half what's the play tonight in this California
07:08clash which is an interesting thing still for the Athletics who play in Sacramento yeah by the way
07:14let's just take a look at the minus 300 price oh that's easy they'll always beat the Athletics did
07:19you watch the game last night yeah it was a smash job by the Sacramento Athletics last night
07:24absolutely putting it to the Dodgers at home now you take a look at the pitching matchup and you might
07:28think it's heavily skewed not so fast though 31 pitchers on the card today Yamamoto's number three
07:34his XFIP minus number 63 his ERA 1.80 his XFIP number 2.51 that's tremendous but check out Gunnar
07:42Hoglund here right behind him number four on the card today with an XFIP minus number of six excuse me
07:4973 and a 2.38 ERA and a 2.99 XFIP number now granted Yamamoto has 156 batters that he's faced on the
07:57season and Hoglund's only got 44 so limited chances here and we always expect that lineup to bounce back
08:03for the Los Angeles Dodgers but this doesn't sound like a price point that's you know measured up to
08:08what I got last night 10 to 1 maybe last night for the Dodgers and the A's aren't showing up no
08:12last night it was an over only because the Athletics put up the amount of runs that they did last night
08:17I'm not paying that price point but I'm not saying the Dodgers can't win and won't win this game but
08:21buyer beware in that one you see that big price here the pitching matchup isn't all that much different
08:26just based on some of the early analytical numbers listen Yoshi Yamamoto has been great this year for the
08:32Dodgers leaking a little bit of oil as of late did you see last night the LA native or the LA area
08:38native out from Thousand Oaks Jacob Wilson in the leadoff spot for the A's the 23 year old four for
08:45five two home runs four RBIs as the A's pasted the Dodgers at the ravine 11 to 1 the homecoming for
08:55Jacob Wilson in that spot DRS a rubber match between NLS foes today this afternoon in San Francisco the
09:04Giants and the D-backs Arizona won the opener on Monday the Giants respond last night in a high
09:10scoring affair basically a pick-em for the series finale and the rubber match this week minus 112 now
09:18though the updated money line price on San Francisco total on the rise ever so slightly at eight and a
09:25half who wins this game who wins this series tonight by the bank the the afternoon game out there Ben 1245
09:32starts so you won't really get those shadows in maybe a little bit warmer temperatures that you
09:35would have normally at night which is a nice thing to have but understand this though Jordan Hicks is
09:3911th on the card today at a 31 pitchers with his X fit minus number at 89 which is really good but
09:45here's the correlation sometimes that people can't wrap their head around wait a minute you tell me
09:48Jordan Hicks having a good season with a 5.82 ERA just means he's getting a little bit unlucky at
09:53this point his metrics are very good waiting on base percentage and ISO power numbers things just
09:57aren't working on his favor but as I said you're lining up right-handed pitching you're going up
10:01against a lineup that can really detonate right-handed pitching with a lot of left-handed bats that's
10:05certainly the Arizona Diamondbacks at this point first six guys in the lineup today all elevated
10:10ISOs against righties we'll see how that one plays out because I just told you you have a very good season
10:14so far for Jordan Hicks not ERA wise but strikeout wise and also not giving a lot of free passes and
10:19keeping the ball on the ground you focus on San Francisco with the water Rodriguez not a great
10:23pitcher last 30 days hammered as a left-handed pitcher both lefty and righty batters however when
10:29you take a look at Eduardo Rodriguez you see his 92 X fit minus look at his ERA 6.86 if you're just
10:36looking ERA and you look at that total like what kids here they probably should get 15 total runs in
10:40this game not so fast these pitchers are now in a true pitching environment and understand this
10:45they're getting a little bit unlucky to start the season maybe that balance is out today in the
10:49afternoon 2-1 the win for the D-backs in game one courtesy of Corbin Carroll two solo home runs
10:5610-6 last night Christian Koss the catcher for the Giants a grand salami Jung-Hoo Lee a three-run
11:03shot late to really extend it for the Giants DRS when you look right now around MLB the Dodgers losing
11:10yesterday to the A's they are now a half game behind both the Mets and the Tigers both teams
11:15losing 28 and 15 for the best records in MLB