- 7/2/2025
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00:00A very full slate around Major League Baseball on this Wednesday was supposed to be the case
00:06yesterday, but we had three rainouts due to some bad weather here in the Northeast in a game that
00:11started in Boston between the Red Sox and the Reds that was suspended after only three frames.
00:18A lot to get you caught up on. We'll do that in just a moment. But last night, DRS, the LA Dodgers,
00:24as we expected, greater than a $3 favorite, got a great start from Yoshi Yamamoto. Shohei Otani
00:30hit his 30th home run for a fifth consecutive season, and the Dodgers beat the White Sox
00:356-1. Understandable. That's what we expected. Best record in baseball now, LA at 54-32. They have won
00:4514 of their last 17. But today, a matchup against the White Sox might come with some history. The
00:54Dodgers, once again, greater than a $3 favorite. The total is nine and a half against the White
01:00Sox. And who gets the start? Clayton Kershaw on Clay Day. Clayton Kershaw, just three strikeouts
01:07away from becoming the 20th ever pitcher to reach 20,000 career strikeouts, if I am not mistaken.
01:16His K-prop today, by the way, is for a 3,000 career strikeouts, not 20,000. 20th ever pitcher
01:22to reach 3,000 career strikeouts. Still history at stake today, though, for Kersh. His K-prop is
01:30four and a half. Do you think he gets there and makes some history tonight, DRS? And will it result
01:36in a large LA win once again? Yeah, LA's going to win again tonight. Why? Because you just look at
01:41that White Sox sign-up. Woeful, one through nine for the most part. Starting pitchers questionable
01:46tonight. They are going to have a opener here in Brandon Isert, and then he's going to give way
01:50to Burke, who's not a great pitcher here. And the Dodgers should be on their merry way. Hit their
01:54team total last night, scoring six runs. They're probably going to do that once again tonight.
01:58Otani, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Tesco Hernandez, Pajes, Edmond, all really good weighted on base
02:03percentages against lefty and righty pitchers here. So that shouldn't stop. But the focus, you're
02:08right, is going to be on Clayton Kershaw. It's not really winning this game. I think they win it
02:11going away. And that price point tells you, as being such a heavy favorite, they should be able
02:15to do that. Sometimes, you know, you have the stars, right? Like, do you want this to wait
02:20another star? Like, this is right in your grasp. Like, hey, Ben, if he gets 13 strikeouts tonight,
02:24he hits that level. Like, no. Very manageable. He'll get this here. Celebration. And where would
02:29you like to do this? Oh, you know, it'd be awesome if I did it in Milwaukee. No! Dodger Stadium,
02:34Chavez Ravine. Celebrate it tonight. Kershaw should be able to get those Ks. And maybe even from a
02:39management position, let's just say this game is close into the fifth or sixth inning. Hey,
02:44Kershaw's getting up there. He's one strikeout away. Are they taking him out of this lineup?
02:48No, they're not. They win against an underhanded Chicago White Sox team. And they'll try to get
02:53that statistic here for Clayton Kershaw. He'll get the strikeout tonight. Because why? He might get an
02:57extra two or three batters to get it done, whereas he might get pulled out previously.
03:01One of the greats to ever do it in the last two decades in Major League Baseball. It is year
03:06number 18 for Clayton Kershaw. Each and every one of them spent in Los Angeles at Chavez Ravine.
03:13And as of late, DRS, even as that vet in year number 18, he has won his last four outings in
03:20which he has allowed just a total of four earned in those last four starts. Now, a 4-0 record with
03:27a 3-0-3 ERA. You can bet on Clayton Kershaw in this start in his chase of 3K. Again, that K prop is
03:36four and a half. To get them all in the opening inning, three plus strikeouts in the first inning.
03:42I like three plus because technically a drop strike could lead to a fourth batter. Anyway,
03:4612-1 to go three up, three down. And even money plus 100 price against the Southsiders
03:52tonight. I do believe we see history that K prop four and a half and Kersh can even go under and
03:59just need three strikeouts to get to 3,000 career Ks to become the 20th ever pitcher in Major League
04:06Baseball history to pull that off. DRS, plenty of double headers on this Wednesday slate around the
04:14bigs. We had rainouts in Philadelphia, rainouts in New York for the Mets in their opening part of
04:21their series against those Brewers. And elsewhere yesterday, let me just make sure, in Washington
04:28as well between the Nats and the Tigers. And of course, the Sox and the Reds suspended after three
04:34innings. The second part of that game, the resumption comes our way at 2.30 p.m. Eastern time.
04:40Plenty more to break down on the other side of the break. But when it comes to betting double
04:45headers, DRS, what's your philosophy? Usually stay away from game number two early in the day
04:52and depending on what happens, because you can also see if a team uses some key closers, maybe a
04:56setup guy in the eighth and the 19 to win game number one, you know they won't be active for game
05:00number two. Those are the meaningful tidbits of information that you can have. By the way, 19 games
05:05on the card today. Is that what I'm saying? Like imagine a professional sports league with 19 total
05:10games on the card. That's unbelievable, man. A smorgasbord of baseball today. And from the brilliant
05:17baseball mind, we keep breaking it down. Next, we have 18 and two thirds. I think you could say games
05:25on the MLB slate on this Wednesday because we are three innings into a game that was suspended last
05:32night in Fenway between the Red Sox and the Reds. But technically, it will be a resumed double
05:37header. So a double header in four spots in Boston, in DC between the Nationals and the Tigers at
05:44Citi Field between the Mets and the Brewers to start that midweek set as we'll break down in the
05:49final two games on this Wednesday of our three game midweek set between the Padres and the Phils.
05:56Way back on Monday night now, Zach Wheeler yet another gem. The Phillies blanked San Diego for
06:02zip. Yesterday, the RS, we thought it was going to be Christopher Sanchez against Nick Pavetta today
06:07in the opening game of the double header. It is still pitching Pavetta for San Diego, but now against
06:13the Rook, Mick Abel on the other side for the fight in San Diego, an ever so slight favorite in the
06:19updated odds from that pick-em price here on Fandle. And in the second game, it's still in Cease
06:25and Christopher Sanchez, where Philadelphia is a favorite at home. What do you expect in the two games
06:32to be played today at the bank? Yeah, Mick Abel, that's going to be an interesting one because we're
06:37going to have heat and humidity in those in the conditions here at one o'clock, mid-80s, light wind
06:40blowing out to right field. But understand this, like Nick Pavetta is a pretty good pitcher. We've taken a look
06:44at him a few times this season already, but just looking over the numbers per se, it's not just
06:50like, you know, hey, this guy's better than the other one. Here's the interesting part about Mick
06:53Abel. Had a couple of really good starts to his career, sort of flatlined, but then also you had
06:59one of those games in Atlanta where he warmed up before the game. The rain delay came in and didn't
07:03play in that game. That was the 13 to nothing Phillies victory over the Atlanta Braves. So skipped a
07:08couple of starts. Now he's back in the trustability, right? I always like to use that word. 96 batters he's
07:13faced on the season, which isn't a lot, Ben. Lefties have absolutely blown him away. A 385
07:20ISO and a 409 weighted on base percentage. If you just zeroed that into his last 44 batters,
07:25it ups to a 488 ISO and a 471 weighted on base percentage. Arise, Merrill, Sheets, Cronenworth,
07:32Johnson, probably really good looks. Game number two different because again, we talked about what
07:37do you like to see out of double headers? The second game is always so tough because you don't have
07:40the first game plays out. Two different separate entities that you have to look at, but I got to
07:44tell you, like the Phillies are playing better baseball. The Padres don't have a great offense,
07:48but there's a chance that the Padres can kick this in, in game number one. And I think there's
07:52a good chance that happens. Do I want to take the Padres basically as a pick them or a slight
07:56favorite? Not necessarily, but as I told you, look for those left-handed batters to be able to do
08:00damage in this afternoon game against Mick Abel. That's the way I'd play this one out.
08:04It's one of the interesting things, DRS, to even see a line posted for the second game of a double
08:10header because you have no idea what that lineup is going to look like after starting that game.
08:15Sure, you might have the pitching matchup set, but so many other factors could contribute to what
08:20happens later in the day. One of our three spots for a double header, technically one of our four
08:25around MLB today, also up at Citi Field. We were saying how the Mets were so excited to flip the
08:33calendar to July after losing 13 of their last 16 games for a once proud organization in the month
08:40of June in that month. Maybe time to bring Grimace back for the Amazons. Today, they're hoping to get
08:47off to a good start in July with a double header set against the Milwaukee Brewers. It's Clay Holmes
08:52against Freddie Peralta in the opener. The New York Mets around a minus 132 favorite. In game number
08:59two, though, we don't expect to see New York favored as Jacob Mizorowski gets the start for
09:05the Brew Crew. Milwaukee great in June 16 and nine. The Mets not great in the month of June.
09:13How does July start for both of these teams in the double header today?
09:17You know, usually when you're like a hot baseball team, you see the double header. It's like,
09:21I don't know about that because usually we have the better pitcher on the mound, the better lineup.
09:24We'll let it play out. We're playing good baseball. But so many times that you take a look at
09:27even really good baseball teams, really bad baseball teams, the expectations of a double
09:31header is a split. And the New York Mets, if you tell them before these games are going to start,
09:35Ben, they're getting a split. Boy, that feels like a big win for them. Like, okay,
09:39we've got one of these. We move on to tomorrow and away we go. The worst case scenario would be
09:43in game number one if Freddie Peralta out those homes and that would say, oh no, because now you
09:48have Mizorowski in the second game, who again is a young starter, but he's been really good in his
09:53limited innings in Major League Baseball. And then the Mets are like, all right,
09:57we lost game one, bullpen game number two. You lose both of those. Then it's like panic is
10:01falling in the streets once again in New York. But you have to feel good about a double header at
10:04home. You should get at least one, but I got to tell you, it feels like the Mets better get
10:09game number one in this one, Ben, to have success and say, well, at least we got the first game and
10:13we'll see what happens in game number two. Yeah. You really better hope that DRS to try to turn this
10:19momentum around right away with what feels like a fresh start. Yesterday rained out, supposed to be
10:25pretty nice, albeit humid here in the New York City area on this Wednesday. Our other double header
10:32of two full games in DC, the Nationals and the Tigers, because Detroit did not play yesterday and
10:39the Dodgers did and picked up a win. Technically, the Tigers a half game behind LA now for what is that
10:44best mark in MLB. The Tigers favored ever so slightly in both, including what should be a great
10:49pitching matchup in the second of two games tonight in DC. Jack Flaherty for Detroit against
10:55Washington's Mackenzie Gore. The Red Sox up to one after three innings suspended yesterday in their
11:02second game of their midweek set against the Reds. And there will be another one tonight between Boston
11:07and Cincy as well. DRS, the Atlanta Braves still trying to make up some ground around the National
11:13League. Now the fourth best record in the NL East out of five teams because the Marlins have won eight
11:20straight in the Braves have dropped two in a row. They're eight games sub 500, but some good news
11:25for Atlanta. Jerickson profile on his way back. Is this his Braves debut after starting his career
11:32in San Diego serving that 80 game suspension for Pete? It's not. It is not. He started this year in
11:39Atlanta. Yeah. Yeah. I guess that makes sense. We are past the midway point and Atlanta has played
11:4484 games this season so far. Last night, the RS, they got blanked at home in the A by the Angels.
11:51It was tied zip zip entering the top of the eighth. The Halo scored all four of the runs in the game
11:57in the top half of that inning. What are we going to see today in Atlanta between the Braves and the
12:03Angels? Ah, you know, it's my favorite game of the day because why we had one Diddy guilty early
12:10in the morning. Another Diddy is going to be guilty later tonight. And that's Diddy Fuentes after on the
12:15mound. My man is not cut out from major league baseball at this point. The eight. Yes, you can.
12:19The Angels are going to win this game. Look at the current season right now of what they've
12:24damaged. They've been able to do. We're talking about the Angels. We have got six and seven guys
12:27positive ISO and waited on base percentages going against Diddy. Going to be a party in Atlanta
12:34tonight, baby. Let's go. Let's go. Oh, man. Nine and a half is that total. Again, the guy's name
12:44is Diddy A. Fuentes, who is the starter today for Atlanta. Last week was bad enough when you said it's
12:51a Diddy party against, was it the Braves and the Mets at that time when you predicted New York to snap
12:57their five-game skid against the Braves. It was bad enough to call it a Diddy party. To implicate
13:03the guy is guilty after what is happening now in the legal system in the Diddy trial is crazy work,
13:10man. Crazy wording out of you. The only way you can go, though. Look, sometimes the sport,
13:15the sporting gods and karma is like, you know what? What a perfect day. Diddy's on trial. Diddy's on
13:20the mound. Same day. It can all happen. The big A is the place to be tonight. Come on now. Let's go.
13:25Again, just so we know, DRS might be the only guy that calls him Diddy. Diddy A. Fuentes.
13:32Yeah. Come on. What? Like, what? You know, we all get names. Like, this guy with Diddy A. Fuentes,
13:38like, come on, man. I can't say that guy's name. That's Diddy. Diddy Fuentes is out there on the
13:42mound tonight. Come on. Don't be confused. Don't get caught up here. Don't bet on the wrong guy. Make
13:47sure you're betting Diddy A. Fuentes, not other guys. So. Listen, for the young 20-year-old in his two
13:53starts this year for Atlanta, it has not been great, right? He is 0-2 with a 10-8 ERA. He
13:59is allowed 10 total earned runs. Slippery slope. Just saying, man. Slippery slope. Look, this game
14:10will be over before midnight where the two demons come out. You know what I mean? We can go right
14:14there. Let's go. Let's go. That's a good sign. Again, we'll see how much offense happens tonight.
14:21I might have partaken in the joke in the bit last week as I believe who had multiple home
14:27runs. Was it Juan Soto calling him the Punisher? We'll see if anybody can step up to that for the
14:33Halos tonight. Tom Becchio, save us, man. He's here next. All right, Becchio. Let's go around
14:39Major League Baseball. We've got a full slate on this Wednesday. 15 games at 18 and two thirds.
14:47We've got four doubleheaders today. Three innings yesterday in Boston between the Red Sox and the
14:52Reds. That game suspended. It will be resumed today at 2.30 p.m. Eastern time. And then a doubleheader
14:58after it. Doubleheaders in Queens at Citi Field between the Mets and the Brewers. In the nation's
15:04capital between the Nats and the Tigers. And in Philadelphia between the Phils and the Padres
15:11as well. Of those doubleheader sites, which intrigues you the most?
15:16Really comes down to, I would say, the Brewers and the Mets to start. Generally, my approach to
15:21doubleheaders is if Team A wins, you know, the game one, I'll probably just be on Team B to win
15:27Game 2. And obviously, this is said with, like, we have to take everything with a great, so like,
15:32I'm not betting on if the White Sox are on a doubleheader or the Rockies. I'm not just simply
15:36betting on them blindly to win the second game. So the Brewers are a good team. The Mets are also
15:39struggling. So we get a decent price on the, what is it, for the Brewers for Game 1. They're
15:44sitting at, you know, plus 116. We'll probably have some plus 112, whatever it is now. We'll
15:48have some good odds on them in the second game as well. And we also deal with a depleted bullpen
15:52and or a depleted lineup. And Mizorowski is starting Game 2 for the Brewers. So you give me him against
15:58a struggling Mets lineup at minus 120 right now. That's where I'll be in on that.
16:04Yeah, Jacob Mizorowski has been great in this rookie season. Is the odds on favorite to win
16:09rookie of the year in the National League? Yeah, Big Miz could be taken down the Mets who are hopeful
16:15now that in July, that calendar brings some optimism. They ended out June 3 and 13. The
16:22Brewers in the entirety of the month, really solid 16 and nine. Let's go to another NL Central matchup
16:28today, Becky O with all these doubleheaders and then just some scheduled day baseball before travel
16:34days on Thursday. We've got the Pirates and the Cardinals inside PNC Park minus 126. The price
16:41in favor of the Redbirds total at seven and a half. What's your play today in Pittsburgh?
16:47Yeah, let's keep it really simple with Sonny Gray over five and a half strikeouts. And I know he's coming
16:52off of this massive performance with 11 strikeouts and more impressive of that is 89 total pitches
16:58is crazy to have that few pitches, 11 strikeouts. He obviously went to nine innings, the one
17:03header against the Guardians at the end of last week. But I like him over five and a half
17:07strikeouts. The Pirates coming to the 22.2% strikeout rate versus righties. That's the ninth
17:11worst in the league. And Sonny Gray, I don't want to have recency bias in a positive sense
17:15considering what he just did, but he still has a nearly 27% strikeout rate on the season. So
17:20even if he had five strikeouts, six strikeouts, went four innings, five innings against the
17:23Guardians last week, this is still objectively a good spot against the lineup that has been all over the
17:28place. They scored a million runs against the Mets. Oh, the scheme starts yesterday. Surprise,
17:32surprise. They can't score again. It's just a good spot for Sonny Gray today.
17:37They did win that being the buck goes their fifth consecutive Henry Davis, a sack fly in the eighth,
17:43the only run of the game, Pittsburgh victorious one zip schemes, five innings of shutout baseball,
17:48but did only record a no decision. Tom Vecchio. Thank you. As always,
17:54the early line returns tomorrow, 8 a.m. Eastern here on Sportsbook.
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