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00:00let's talk the national league drs the dodgers yeah they had lost their last three series but
00:04they'll get some relief playing the rockies this week we still expect the dodgers to be there at
00:09the end of the road it's still a very short favorite to win the nl have plus 135 the fills
00:15in the mets contenders out of the national league east no doubt six to one their numbers the braves
00:21off to the terrible start although an 8-4 victory yesterday in toronto atlanta still in the bottom
00:27of the national league east standings at 5 and 11 plus 750 the braves entered this year with the
00:33second best price to win the national league donnie i think the conversation though based on
00:37market movement early is those teams over performing expectation in the national league west not name
00:44the dodgers the padres of course best record in major league baseball 14 and 3 and a 12 to 1 price
00:50to win the pennant and the giants who you got to go even further down at 25 to 1 how do you make
00:57sense on those numbers from the pair for the national league west yeah some people would look
01:01at this odds board here at the fandle sports book and not understand what they're looking at they go
01:05okay the dodgers we know was good they took a lot of bets they're still going to be good they'll be
01:08fine they won yesterday plus 135 makes sense then you go wait a second how would the mets phillies and
01:12the braves at 6 to 1 6 to 1 and 750 be so much in front of the san diego padres who just might be the
01:18best team in major league baseball right now well the thought process behind that ben as you know
01:22mets phillies and braves expectations is all three of those teams can win the nl east which gives you
01:27the advantage once you get to the playoffs you take a look at the dodgers they're just expected
01:31to walk away with that division no matter what the lead is for anybody else therefore the dodgers are
01:36heavily favored over the padres and the padres are blocked behind the mets phillies and the braves for
01:40those statistics here it's early in the season games will bounce back they'll be fine i'm mad at my
01:44philadelphia phillies at this point right now because they're getting typically good pitching but nobody can hit
01:49at the plate they're still sitting at a 6 to 1 price if we overreact phillies should be 12 to 1
01:53and the padres should be plus 135 that's not the way it works it's a long season things will play
01:58itself out that's why even you see the braves like how could the braves be ahead of the padres
02:02understand what i just explained that's why although atlanta does not have the right side of history
02:08backing the braves this year no team of course has started oh and seven and made the major league
02:13baseball postseason that was the start this year for atlanta you saw the arizona diamondbacks
02:19as well at 13 to 1 they're above 500 but they're losing ground by the day in the national league
02:24west they are nine and seven american league odds up next just one final point by the way on the
02:31national league pennant odds before we turn our attention to the al donnie it's about two and a
02:37half weeks into this major league baseball season and one thing is becoming rather crystal clear around
02:42the national league five of the six playoff spots of course the expanded postseason in the bigs in
02:48the national league more than likely going to hail from the two divisions the national league west
02:53and the national league east that was the expectation entering this year by the way but outside of the
02:59divisional winner in the nl central the cubbies the only team above 500 you really got to think that
03:05the two divisional winners in all three wild card spots coming from the nl east and the nl west
03:11yeah you would figure that right because again we always forget about the central divisions even in
03:16the american league same thing as the national league they're not the heavy hitters usually
03:19they're on the coastlines there that you pay attention to and again the money typically dictates
03:23that as well and also at the trade deadline if you want to acquire more bats and more pitching
03:27what's that usually cost you been not only prospects but expanding your payroll which you might
03:31already be up against let's just say that luxury tax threshold at that point so no complaints for
03:35me at that point and you're right so it looks like it's probably going to be that as well yeah that
03:39probably is where things stand right now around mlb let's turn our attention over to the american
03:45league the yankees remain the favorites to win the al pennant at plus 350 the rangers three dollars
03:52behind it plus 650 the socks despite being sub 500 plus 750 but donnie it was the orioles who entered this
04:00year with the second best price to win the al pennant only behind the pinstripes baltimore off
04:05to a miserable start a six and nine record to begin this year they have dropped seven of their last
04:11ten what do you make so far those top four prices to win the american league pennant you know it's kind
04:17of funny because you look at the roster right and even coming into the season it was like boy the
04:21yankees uh stanton's gonna sit this one out you lost your best pitcher at garrett cole there's no way
04:24they can win the american league but somebody has to take it from you if you're still the favorite
04:29and i look at the american league ben and it's early you're gonna have times that are changing
04:33and baseball teams are gonna step up i understand that does this look like the worst version of the
04:37american league that we've seen in 25 years i'm just being honest like yes the yankees are good
04:41ball club but this iteration let's just say of the yankees four or five years ago we're not talking
04:46about them as the best team in the american league and now you take a look as best by far and even with
04:50injuries here and they're not playing that great of baseball and still plus 350 price for the rangers
04:55at plus 650 there is talent in the american league but that's my takeaway like i want to look at the
04:59yankees like they can't be the favorite but then go line by line and team by team and go who's worthy
05:04of being the favorite over the yankees nobody is so the the market is corrected the fan's little
05:08sports book but it's just like your mind is playing tricks like oh the yankees aren't that good okay
05:12we'll pick another team oh you love the mariners like oh i don't know about that oh you love the
05:16i don't know about that either oh the red sox will get it will they get it together like that's what
05:20the buying tricks are playing in my head right now donnie i think it's a great point and i think
05:25when you look at a lot of those teams considered a pennant contender either now or before the year
05:30it's been a story of disappointing starts and can they turn things around again the red sox are eight
05:36and ten following giving up 16 runs to divisional foe the rays in tampa yesterday the orioles are six
05:43and nine it has not been a great start and donnie there was a reason that people were optimistic
05:48about the teams from the american league east or maybe the rangers out of the american league west
05:53being a pennant contender because the yankees took a huge blow before this baseball season even started
05:59losing garrett cole for the entirety of this season now the yanks have a half game advantage for the
06:05top spot in the al east but new york's just nine and seven they only allowed bobby witt and the royals
06:11to have two hits yesterday with compiling both for kc including a solo shot inside yankee stadium
06:19but the best record right now in the american league is the detroit tigers at a 10 and 6 mark
06:26that's the best record in all of the al at 10 and 6 drs based on win percentage that's 0.625
06:35for detroit there are four records right now in the national league three of them from the nl west
06:42padres giants dodgers and the mets atop the nl east better than that of the tigers so yes in comparison
06:48the al is off to a down start to this season a lot of times to figure things out but to your point
06:55yeah the american league looks like the much weaker side right now in major league baseball
06:59yeah maybe the yankees will be the benefit can you imagine if the yankees started healthy this season
07:03john carlo stanton was in that lineup with a lot of these young kids batting around him and aaron judge
07:07having a good season and garrett cole being dominant on the mound to push the other starters
07:10down another peg that would be fantastic to watch but again the yankees will make some moves here but
07:15it's just interesting where i had no inclination to say i just want to bet the yankees this year like
07:21i didn't like them coming out of spring training because they were injured but again it just gets
07:24back to that hey well who else are you going to pick i like the rangers and i pick them preseason and
07:28say you know what they have the talent on that roster to win a pennant in the al and they still might do
07:32that in the second at the price point here at the fan blue sports book the boston red sox i think
07:36they have a talented roster once it starts to heat up and those bats come around i think they'll be
07:40just fine same thing with the orioles but nobody there's like oh bury that team right away and say
07:44you know what i think the blue jays can come back it looks like it's everybody and then there's the
07:49yankees this early in the season and donnie the debate for us prior to this year getting started with
07:54the injuries to the new york yankees was the idea does that present value on other teams around the
08:00bigs around the american league as the yanks prices move back i think you could argue now
08:05new york's kind of been steady right there so maybe there is some buyback in the pinstripes which is a
08:11crazy thing to say again these are postseason prices you win a pennant come october and early
08:17november but you have to be in those positions and yes a lot can change over the long summer
08:23in 162 games but based on the beginning of course you are trying to put yourself in those prime spots
08:31my pick to win the american league this year the detroit tigers at 11 to 1 that price down by a
08:36buck and a half based on this strong start tarik skuble looking like the reigning al cy young winner
08:41in his last two outings for detroit best record in the american league at 10 and 6 but donnie we could
08:47see a little bit of a changing of the guard the astros sub 500 red sox orioles sub 500 the rangers
08:54still two games above 500 at 9 and 7 but the team with the best record right now in the al west
08:59it's the los angeles angels of anaheim at a 9 and 6 start the rangers by the way swept over the
09:05weekend by their divisional foes in the mariners who are back to an even 500 8 and 8 yeah if i guess if
09:11there was one team that you should be able to trust but you can never trust isn't it the seattle
09:15mariners on a year-to-year basis they have the pitching to beat anybody in major league baseball
09:20on a day-to-day but then it's like well they keep losing games three to one because their offense
09:25can't wake up i just wish like the seattle mariners as an organization go we're just going to pay the
09:29best five bats on the free agent market in the next year and say let's just give us an opportunity
09:34to actually win something here so that's one of those teams you do want to watch out for because
09:37pitching does win we're not going to get around that yep and they've got a great starting staff there
09:42in seattle let's get you set for a full tuesday slate around major league baseball we have all 30
09:50clubs in action 15 total games it is jackie robinson day in mlb to honor one of the greats who of course
09:58what 42 yeah indeed to break the racial barrier of course in major league baseball does that mean
10:05everybody's wearing 42 today on the jerseys right yeah that's how everybody gets 42 out there yep
10:11jackie robinson day in major league baseball donnie we start with the best team in the bigs to begin
10:17this year 14 and 3 a perfect 11 and 0 at home tied for the fourth best home winning streak to begin a
10:25major league baseball season in history that would be the padres who have been favored by the way in nine
10:31of those 11 home victories not the case today at petco park as the padres host the cubs for the
10:39second game of this mid-week set shoda imenaga gets the start for the cubbies and thus the updated
10:46numbers minus 152 in favor of the cubs over understands at eight early on drs you said we should expect some
10:55offense today in san diego if we see offense who does that favor could san diego's home win streak
11:03be snapped at 11 analytics sometimes tough to use this early in the season particularly with pitchers
11:09we understand that once you get around till june you have enough on every one of these pitchers to
11:13make really good decisions the rest of the summer major league baseball statistics or statistics on
11:18hitters usually right about a month in 50 to 60 to 70 at bats you'll be good to go and you get a good
11:22feel on these guys whether they were hot cold to start it usually levels out the reason i bring
11:26this up is you take a look at tonight in the padres lineup tonight going up against a lefty doesn't
11:30look that great fernando tatis terrible numbers against lefties bogarts gonzalez guriel joe and diaz
11:37there's only about two or three batters in that lineup that you can trust okay how are you going to get
11:41runs out of this and show to imenaga you take a look at his first couple starts here 23 and a third
11:45innings pitch a 2.7 era absolutely fantastic let's flip it over to the chicago cubs on this side going up
11:51against randy vasquez we'll get to the pitchers in just a moment here from a side by side lineup
11:56looks decent here against right-handed pitching they've done very well tucker's been great bush
11:59has been great p crow armstrong's been great amaya's been great everybody else right in that little
12:04holding pattern but hear me out on this you see the seven and a half and you might say well donnie
12:07give me the eras of both of these pitchers look at vasquez 15 and two-thirds innings pitch not a lot
12:121.72 we just told you imenaga was a 2.70 stone cold under petko park hear me out on this and
12:19again limited innings that are pitched you take a look here on the options with imenaga
12:232.70 era that turns into a 4.97 x fit number which is a disaster which means he's getting lucky
12:31and giving up way too many fly balls not striking out enough guys and putting too many runners on
12:35base let's get the randy vasquez 15 and two-thirds inning pitch a stellar 1.72 era but look at the x fit
12:42number 6.32 two of the worst analytical pitchers on the mound tonight based on early season statistics
12:48at petko tonight so again it's very early to use these judgments but you can see the era is there
12:54which people go oh they're really good form but they're getting a little bit lucky early in the
12:58season two lineups i think can do some damage and by damage ben what are we talking about three runs
13:03for the padres three runs over here for the cubs and you're right in that ballpark you head off to
13:08extras in style at that point i do think we get a total in this game over the seven and a half as
13:13opposed to taking a side in this one analytically drs as you mentioned shorty imenaga two and one
13:19this year with a sub three era at a 2.70 only gave up two total earned runs in his first three starts
13:26of this year including against the padres at home in early april just over a week and a half ago at
13:33wrigley he won seven and a third he only allowed a single earned run on four hits cubs won that game
13:41against san diego but in the most recent start for imenaga against the rangers did allow five at
13:47wrigley in five innings of work in multiple long balls total work at its way up it was seven and a
13:53half earlier this morning the over under now stands at eight drs yeah your philadelphia phillies on a
13:59little bit of a slump right now the phil's at home today as a minus 162 home favorite against yep
14:07justin verlander and the san francisco giants jesus lazardo gets the start for philadelphia
14:13over understands at eight the phil's won the weekend series against the dodgers now two weekends ago
14:20first team to beat la this year they took two two of three they were seven and two they have now dropped
14:26five of their last seven including yesterday's opener against sf who played it 10 in that 10-4 win
14:34as you look at this game how important is it for the philies to get back on track
14:39it's very important but also understand this like yesterday i'm like you know what i thought the
14:43better pitcher on the mound was on the opposite side with the giants yesterday in taiwan walker as we
14:47said had he given up an earned run after the first day i'm like i'm an idiot man these numbers are too
14:52early in the season only to wait just another three or four batters here and tattooed was taiwan
14:57walker yesterday and again that zero era and that x flip in the mid fours that really paid attention to
15:02it yesterday because they clocked him around fast forward to today you take a look at jesus lazardo
15:07who's been fantastic and the pitcher on the card today that you probably could trust the most
15:10might be him and lazardo you take a look at 18 innings pitch this season a 150 era which you said
15:17donnie well why are you looking at era it's just a comparative to what that xfip number is which is
15:21a 2.46 which is really really good he should hold the ballpark here tonight which means balls won't be
15:27flying out high strike rates he looks good flip it over to verlander on the opposite side
15:31here's where sometimes your mind does play tricks on you as well verlander lining up in this game
15:35with an era of 6.92 through 13 innings phillies should have an easy one but hold the horses here
15:41a 3.74 xfip number on him against a struggling lineup but if i were to put my money on the team
15:48tonight it's probably going to be the philadelphia phillies do i want to pay a minus 150 or higher not
15:52necessarily but they have the better pitching matchup and also at least the numbers early season
15:57coming back the phillies have done very well against right-handed pitchers and maybe verlander
16:01struggling just a bit the phillies should bounce back but that doesn't mean bounce back with like
16:05seven runs on the board with an easy victory bounce back might be four to two tonight philadelphia
16:10phillies verlander has not recorded a decision in three outings this year has a 6.92 era still a very
16:18notable name but at 42 years old in major league baseball season number 20 not exactly the justin
16:25verlander that we know san francisco off to a great start this year a 12 and 5 record at the
16:32moment the braves trying to turn things around win number five last night on the road up in the great
16:38white north eight to four the victory over the blue jays today it's basically a pick-em spencer
16:44schwellenbach looking to continue his sensational start to 2025 against kevin gosman and toronto total
16:51seven and a half donnie will give you a pick and we'll break down a few more mlb games on this full
16:57tuesday slate up next year on the early run we continue to go all around mlb 15 games all 30 teams
17:04in action a full tuesday slate in the bigs the rs the atlanta braves continuing and needing to to stack
17:11up wins after the oh and seven start they've won five of their last nine including the opener in the
17:17six yesterday over the blue jays eight to four one of the bright spots for a struggling season to
17:23begin for atlanta spencer schwellenbach he is on the bump today against the jays with the braves an
17:29ever so slight favorite but basically a pick-em what is your prediction for what we see in toronto
17:3438 degrees up in the sixth tonight good thing they got a dome there so that's not going to factor in
17:39neither will the windy conditions at about 17 to 18 miles an hour if that roof was open but it's not
17:44but understand this spencer schwellenbach on the early season of major league baseball has been
17:48nothing short of fantastic take a look at his walk rate 2.9 k rate 28 iso power number against 060 and
17:56a weighted on base percentage of 180 ground ball percentage 58 absolutely spectacular now let's
18:02take a look at some of those analytical numbers 20 innings pitched so far in this early season for
18:06schwellenbach you look at the era which again isn't an analytical number it's just a baseline for people
18:11that say you know what can you mix that analytics in with some regular numbers we understand 0.45 era
18:16how does that translate to his xfif number 2.46 spectacular take a look at that lineup tonight
18:22for the toronto blue jays and just the iso power numbers they say what's what's isolated power mean
18:26extra base hits that these guys can hit 165 170 is the normal average number in major league baseball
18:33against right-handed pitching to start this major league baseball season for toronto bichette 091
18:39vladi jr 062 santander 087 kirk 028 wagner 027 clement zero 048 for nathan luke's rodent 059 the
18:50only guy positive in the middle of that lineup is andres jimenez at a 275 number so you're telling
18:55me one guy is positive with iso power number out of nine at bats against a kid that's absolutely
19:01cruising early season i don't even need to see the opposite side with with uh gaussman i'm not
19:05looking towards the toronto blue jays only towards the braves for me vladi jr yesterday 0 for the dish
19:120 for 4 his average before that though at the end of the weekend was 302 but of course for vladimir
19:18guerrero jr after getting the stellar 14-year 500 million dollar contract he still hasn't hit a home
19:24run this year goose egg zero it's dinger tuesday probably not going to happen against spencer schwellenbach
19:32at least as we would think 20 innings of work this year 10 base knocks one total earned run a 1-0 record
19:41a 0.45 era for schwelly drs in the american league east to our american league west excuse me two teams
19:49have a winning record the texas rangers nine and seven your pick to win the american league pennant
19:54before the year and who the angels at nine and six the best record atop the division right now a
20:02divisional duel today in arlington tyler malley gets the start for the rangers you say kikuchi on the
20:08other side for the halos texas a home favorite at minus 120 what happens tonight in the lone star state
20:15i'm gonna get some good runs in the lone star state and also maybe a stack is available because you just
20:20look at the angels and typically it's like hey man they're like the white socks let's look at the
20:24line of everybody stinks outside of one player here but based on their performance against right-handed
20:28pitchers early in the season everybody is really good except tim manderson in the nine hole so you
20:33have eight straight batters with plus iso power number and weighted on base percentage against right
20:37into pitching that's where you should start to look first last year tyler molly 56 batters he's faced
20:42not a lot to look at so fast forward to this year he almost has as many batters faced this year
20:46than he did entirety of last year so if you focus on this current season right now 53 batters faced
20:52he said boy look at this an iso power number against 065 but weighted on base percentage of 196 that's
20:57fantastic but his k rate is low and his walk rate is a little bit high so take a look at some of those
21:02numbers through 13 and two-thirds innings again not a lot to work with here but a 1.32 era that you
21:07might be like boy that's spectacular that xfip number which factors everything else in 4.51 so you're
21:13looking at the angels that should have a pretty good night at the dish flip it over to the other
21:16side with you say kikuchi not a great start so far to the season for him a 5 era but a 4.44 xfip
21:22number which is still elevated to 18 innings pitched a left-handed pitcher struggling with
21:27right-handed batters and what are you going to face most times here ben cory seager the middle of
21:31that lineup a lefty everybody else will be right-handed batters why can't we get runs down the low star
21:37state tonight between these two eight and a half is that total drs a big one for luis castillo
21:43tonight in cincinnati his first start against the reds in his career spent the first five and a half
21:50years of his career in the bigs of course as the ace for the reds it's basically a pick-em tonight
21:55in a great american ballpark between the mariners and the reds what do you like
21:58yeah interesting one is you find out because lodolo does have really good statistics on the season again
22:04he's going up against the mirrors who tend not to hit anybody lefty or righty at this point
22:08i don't have a great feel for this one but also 50 degrees which is cooler temperature
22:12but how about 12 mile an hour winds blind dead center field that's at least a good thing