MLB Best Bets: Dodgers vs. Braves Clash Heats Up MLB Playoff Race

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00:00Donnie's favorite segment of the day. We break down some Major League Baseball on this Monday.

00:08Just two weeks remaining in this MLB regular season. About 12-13 games left for every team

00:15around the big. So if you are in the hunt for October, these games are highly, highly

00:21significant. Tonight, the fourth and final game in Atlanta between the Dodgers and the

00:26Braves of this now extended weekend set. Will the Dodgers be able to split? Can Atlanta

00:31take 3-4 against Los Angeles? A good pitching matchup on paper. Yoshi Yamamoto and the Dodgers,

00:38a slight road favorite against Max Freed and the Braves. Total at 7.5. What do you like

00:43tonight in the ATM? Yeah, we take a look at Yamamoto coming back to the mound. Not a lot

00:49of extensive work just yet, so they're trying to sort of stretch him out, Ben, right? You

00:52want to get 3-4 innings in, then 4-5 in, then 5-6. So come playoff time, you'll be

00:57able to be a dominant starter. And maybe we can get that, but if we're looking at season-long

01:01numbers, Yamamoto's been fantastic. The one thing we know about the Atlanta Braves, sometimes

01:05their hitting can be questionable at best. They do line up decently against right-handed

01:09pitching, but really the focus is going to be that lineup for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

01:13Now, by the way, last 30 days against left-handed pitchers, which Max Freed will be on the mound

01:17for, they've been sensational. Outside of Freddie Freeman, who's a lefty, Miguel Rojas,

01:21everybody else been in that lineup for the past month. Positive ISO power number and

01:25positive weighted-on-base percentages here. But if you line up Max Freed, his last 30

01:29days, 128 batters he's faced, how about a 127 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage

01:34of 291? He's been really good. So for my money tonight, I think you take a look at the Dodger

01:39pitcher on the mound, give me 5-6 innings there of quality baseball. I think Freed can

01:44hold down those Dodgers bats, which I told you have been very good against left-handed

01:48pitching. I do think we stay under 7.5. I don't think we get 8-plus runs tonight in

01:52a playoff-type atmosphere.

01:55The Braves, an ever-so-slight underdog at home. They are tied for the third and final

02:00nationally wildcard spot alongside the New York Mets. The Amazons at home, they store

02:05a long homestand for the next seven days. This week, tonight against the Nationals,

02:10Sean Mania on the bump. They're nearly a $2 home favorite. Must win for New York. We'll

02:15see if the Braves can take this extended weekend set over L.A.

02:19The Dodgers now looking up by two games at the Philadelphia Phillies. The Dodgers still

02:24in front of the Brewers, though, for what would be that first-round buy out of the wildcard

02:30round. Milwaukee at home, they host Philadelphia. Philly, first—the best record in the National

02:37League. The Brewers with a double-digit lead for the National League Central. Third-best

02:40mark in the NL. And now, an even pick-em-it, minus .08 on both sides tonight in Wisconsin.

02:47Who wins?

02:48Yeah, Phillies, back-to-back winners here coming back. Now you're going to go on the

02:51road. You got Ranger Suarez in the mound. You're hoping he comes back to the form we

02:55saw over the first couple months of the season. But the focal point's going to be Aaron Ciavalli

02:59on the mound here for the Milwaukee Brewers. You look at his seasonal numbers, about average.

03:02Isopower number 188 against—weighted on base percentage against 333. He said it's

03:07doable. But over the last 60 days, the third—actually, you know what? Forget it's 60 days. Let's

03:11just go 30 days. 86 padders he's faced, Ben. 167 iso, weighted on base percentage of 261.

03:17That's going to be good. Against right-handed padders, he's faced 48 of those over the past

03:21month. A 143 iso and a 269 weighted on base percentage. The Phillies haven't necessarily

03:27been hot over the past couple weeks at the plate. This game, again, I think this one

03:31stays under because you're still looking at the Phillies are going to the playoffs.

03:34The Brewers are going to the playoffs. But as you pointed out, the Phillies want to stay

03:37clear of the Los Angeles Dodgers. You take a look at Milwaukee. They want to chase down

03:41the Los Angeles Dodgers. So I think we get an under here and a pretty competitive game.

03:46We will see tonight in Wisconsin two teams that had a great weekend. San Diego sweeping

03:51San Francisco. The Padres comfortably in that top NL wildcard spot. Houston sweeping the

03:57Angels as one would hope. They now lead the American League West again by four and a half

04:02games over Seattle. They face off tonight in San Diego. The Padres will throw out you

04:07Darvish Spencer Arrighetti on the other side for the Astros. Another pretty low total at

04:12seven and a half. San Diego a home favorite. What do you like?

04:16I'm going to flip the script. Let's go over in this game. The reason I say that is Spencer

04:19Arrighetti is on the mound. He's been much better over the past couple months that he

04:22did the start season, which should help. But if you're looking at that Padres lineup against

04:25right-handed pitching, Ben, six positive batters with iso power numbers and weighted on base

04:30percentages. Let's flip this over to you. Darvish on the mound. You want to see him

04:33be that dominant pitcher that we saw over the past, let's just say five to 10 years.

04:38That could really help San Diego, but his last 30 days back coming off the IL they haven't

04:41been great. Also that Houston lineup for six batters, one 60 iso, two 66, two 14, five

04:4871, one 71 and two 89 respectively against right-handed pitching over the past month.

04:53So typically in a pitcher's ballpark and also in a playoff type atmosphere, I usually lean

04:57towards the under. We're going to go over eight runs tonight. See if we can get some

05:00contrarian action late night, more history for us in MLB today. It's skeins day. X, X,

05:07I that's Paul skeins day. Number 21 in the history of MLB, the pirates, a road favorite

05:13in St. Louis skeins 10 and two with a two one O E R a this year. He's still been darn

05:20good.

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