Exploring World Series Odds and MLB Team Performances

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00:00Yesterday, a full Major League Baseball card on a Tuesday, the same thing on this Wednesday.

00:05That's 15 games, all 30 clubs in action. And a rarity this week, 11 of the 15 sets in the midweek

00:13are an interleague matchup, a team from the AL versus a team from the NL. So here we are DRS

00:20approaching the middle of June, the dog days of summer when a ton of focus is on Major League

00:25Baseball. So we use these interleague affairs across all of the league to take a look at the

00:31World Series prices as of right now in some World Series specials. Winning lead of the Fall Classic,

00:39the National League is a hefty favorite in this match bet at minus 142. The American League,

00:45the underdog, has that side of MLB at plus 116. A first-time winner of the World Series,

00:53that's minus 1500 to the no, the yes is plus 790. According to our great producer Joe Frizzo,

00:59the first-time winners of the Fall Classic would be the Rockies, Brewers, Padres, Mariners,

01:06or Rays. Those are your five clubs around the 30 in Major League Baseball that would fit that

01:11distinction. Let's start with winning lead because that's a very interesting conversation at this

01:16point. Do you believe the National League should have that minus money price at minus 142?

01:22I do, but maybe a little bit inflated. Can that be fair to be said? Because I do think there's

01:26two teams in the American League and two teams in the National League with legitimate chances,

01:29each one of them, to win a World Series, be the Philadelphia Phillies and the Dodgers here

01:33in the NL. And then you take a look at just the ALEs, basically, of the Baltimore Orioles and

01:37the New York Yankees. I like both of those sides at this point here. So I look at the minus 142

01:42and I say it makes sense that the NL is favored here, but I wouldn't have them favored close to

01:47that minus 150 threshold. I think it'll be a little bit less because I do believe you can make

01:52a great case for either one of those four teams. And also keep in mind, we are not seeing these

01:56complete teams just yet post All-Star break, you know, post trade deadline. We'll see what actually

02:02shakes out here. But if you're going to tell me, hey, Donnie, I think the Yankees will win it.

02:05I'll say, okay. I think the Orioles, same thing. And also the two National League teams with the

02:09Dodgers and the Phillies. There's great arguments to be made. I just think the National League

02:13should be favored. Maybe not that high, Ben. Yeah, I think it's pretty clear as to why. When

02:18you look at the World Series odds at the moment, the Dodgers have been the short favorites all

02:23year long in the preseason plus 250. Yankees second best price, $2 back at plus 450. The

02:30Phillies now at six to one in the Braves plus 850. There are four teams with a three-digit price

02:36below 10 to 1, even below 12 to 1, where the Orioles stand at this moment. And three of those

02:42four teams with a triple-digit number hail from the National League. I'm not sure the Braves

02:47deserve that short of a number at this moment. Oh, they did it with Ronald Acuna Jr. a couple

02:52of years ago. It's a very different story now without your reigning National League MVP and

02:57the ace of the staff in Spencer Strider. But still two of the three best prices to win the World

03:02Series hail from the National League. That's why the minus 142 price favors the NL. But we had this

03:08conversation with Craig Misch yesterday, and I think it's a really fair point, Donny. There are

03:13five teams right now in the National League, only five out of 15 that are above 500. And one of the

03:20five just got there yesterday. The Padres with a victory over the A's. They're a game above 500.

03:26There are four teams in the National League that are two games above 500 or better. The Phillies,

03:32Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. That's it. There's only six teams in the AL that have a winning record

03:39at this moment. All six, at least two games above 500 or better. It's the Yankees and the Orioles

03:45in the American League East. It's three teams from the AL Central, the Guardians, the Royals,

03:50and the Twins. And only the Mariners, the only team above 500 in the American League West. That

03:56includes the Astros, who have reached seven consecutive ALCSs, and the reigning World Series

04:02champions, the Texas Rangers. There's a lot of teams right now playing mediocre, or frankly,

04:08less than mediocre baseball around MLB, which will be fascinating to follow as that postseason

04:14picture becomes clearer and clearer and a little bit more realistic come late August into early

04:19September. Yeah, no, and you bring up a good point here, because typically, like in the NFL,

04:24we talk about like parody is really good for the sport, but the parody of Major League Baseball is

04:27a parody of bad teams here. And somebody's going to have to rise up and claim some of those wild

04:31card spots and maybe get hot at the right time, like my Philadelphia Phillies have been doing

04:35for the past couple years. But that's why each and every time we talk about who can win the World

04:39Series and what league can do it, I only bring up four teams here. And rightfully so, like the

04:43Atlanta Braves still are a quality team. I just don't think they have enough to get over the hump.

04:47The Milwaukee Brewers are a quality team. I just don't think they can get over the hump at this

04:50point. So no shame in their game overall. I just think there's four clear-cut favorites, two in

04:55each league here with the best chances to win the World Series. But again, we're still talking about

04:59a long summer. And as we talk about some of these teams trying to get it together, you'll see some

05:03teams again, 15 and two over the last 17 games, 20 of 25, they have won here. We're waiting for some

05:08of those teams to step up with all that talent here. We've already seen it from the top four

05:12contenders, but somebody is going to get that, you know, apple of the eye from the public in late

05:17August. Like, oh, if this team does a couple of things, it gets hot, they could be dangerous in

05:20the playoffs. It happens every single year. Yeah, it really does. And listen, there is a lot of

05:26baseball left. Teams hovering around 70 games, a little bit less than that for most around Major

05:32League Baseball. In 162, we're not even at the midway point of this 2024 MLB campaign. Which

05:40division has the best shot of the six around the major leagues to win a World Series? Do not bet

05:46the National League West at plus 230. Although the Dodgers are in that division and the front

05:51runners to win a World Series, the Dodgers price individually is plus 250. But the Padres, Ben,

05:57the Giants, no, it's not worth the bet. It is bad value. I think the bets, the RS in the American

06:02League East, the two front runners in the AL, that would be the Yankees and the Orioles plus 280.

06:08That price, not terrible, although shorter than New York's number at a plus 450 price to win a

06:13World Series and the National League East at plus 330 because of the fills and the Braves. But it's

06:20an interesting market because again, there's not many teams with a winning record. So it's not like

06:24you have the strongholds of a division where you're going to have three of the six teams in that league

06:30reach the postseason bracket. Yeah. And again, it's easy for me when you take a look at those

06:34numbers, like the NOS obviously is there because the Dodgers are the favorite, but you want more

06:38bang for your buck. It's certainly going to come from the AL East two teams that I said, I think

06:42the two best teams in the American League reside in that same division. So obviously going through

06:47the playoffs, one of those teams is going to get knocked out. Obviously you don't get two of those

06:50teams to show up in the World Series to take on the Dodgers, right? That's not, that's not going

06:54to happen in the betting landscape and in the scape of major league baseball. But for me, I'm betting

06:58on the AL East. I would take that plus 280 price. And it's a shame you go down that list. And we've

07:03always talked about this. Nobody ever gives any love to the central divisions in either league

07:07because they're always figured inferior. Meanwhile, one of those teams has to win the division. One of

07:13those teams will have a first round advantage being at home here. And also you take a look at

07:17the guardians who have a very good record, but again, you take a look at the AL central at a plus

07:22nine 50 price. And you're just talking about that NL central, which is the brewers. That's a 15 to

07:27one price right now. I do agree. They should be the lowest on the landscape, but at the same time,

07:32there is going to be value because it's not as if, so why pick the AL central bang? It's a shame.

07:36None of those guys make the playoffs. No, one of those teams has to get in and you're going to get

07:40a good price on it. You're going to get the division winner. There's a chance of Milwaukee

07:44continues to be the only team with a winning Mark in that national league central division.

07:50They could bolster their overall record to maybe get one of the two buys through that wild card

07:54round and into the division series in the major league baseball playoff bracket with how the

07:59expanded postseason works now with six teams in either league. And of course we've seen some

08:05rarities. We've seen some weirdness the last two years with this expanded bracket teams that we

08:10would not expect making deeper runs, getting hot at the right time in late October into early

08:15November. But can I convince you to maybe sprinkle on the American league central of the six divisions

08:22around major league baseball? Only one has three teams with a winning record. That is the AL central,

08:28the guardians, the Royals, and the twins. If the season ended today, of course it does not

08:33two of the three wild card spots in the AL would be from the AL central. Donnie,

08:38they could have three of the six teams in the American league and yet the second

08:42longest price to win a world series as a division. Yeah, nobody's trusting them because that front

08:48end starting pitching talent is what gets everybody's attention. Once you get to the playoffs,

08:53we don't technically have that between those three teams, but they're fun. And also Ben,

08:56we're not talking about April 15th. What a nice story. The Royals are with a winning record.

09:00We're in the middle of June. Now these ball clubs are for real and you could get two to three teams

09:05in the playoffs out of that division alone. It's good stuff. Listen, I've got the Royals team win

09:10total over 73 and a half. I have some affinity for Casey. I really want to believe that Kansas

09:16city can make a playoff run.

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