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00:00Live right here on the early line on this Friday before we get to Memorial Day weekend where we
00:05will have a lot of great Major League Baseball on the diamond. Here's a quick snapshot of the
00:11World Series odds at this juncture. Most teams have played nearly 50 games of their 162 during
00:17this 2025 MLB season. Not much really has changed at this moment. We had the World Series odds and
00:25I guess they have been moved ever so slightly. There they are on your screen. The LA Dodgers plus
00:30250 as those short favorites still DRS four bucks in front of the New York Yankees. The big move
00:36despite getting blank yesterday at home and losing seven zip against the Cleveland Guardians is the
00:42Detroit Tigers still with the best record in Major League Baseball at 10 to one. Who's the team with
00:47the best record in the NL? That would be the Philadelphia Phillies also at a 10 to one price
00:5311 to one for the New York Mets. We have that fifth best number rounding out the top five.
00:59Yep. Well, I thought we had those odds on the screen, but I guess we apparently don't as well
01:02here, but I do like the Phillies at a 10 to one price as it sits right now. The Dodgers at a plus
01:07250. They're always going to be there. People just get used to it right now. It's just the way it's
01:11going to be. The Dodgers will be there in the end with a superpower team when it's all said and done,
01:15but you're all right about this. When you look at the Yankees plus 650, maybe the best team in the
01:19American League, the Phillies have been flip-flopping around with the Mets and the Braves, and that's going to
01:23happen. When the Phillies are playing a string of really bad teams, which could continue today
01:27when they head out to Sacramento, you got to pile up those victories. And if you are a team like the
01:31Atlanta Braves, just trying to tread water, you can't be losing to teams like the Washington
01:35Nationals, like they did the night before. That's going to be one to watch because the Phillies,
01:39the Mets, and the Braves, they will be bouncing back and forth between each other all summer long,
01:43but just get used to the Dodgers. No matter what that record is, they will be ultra low and
01:48always be the favorite the entire way through. And it's not like the Dodgers, although the
01:53Phillies have that best record or much farther off 31 and 19 through 50 games, a full game behind
02:00Philadelphia, who is now 32 and 18. Again, the best mark at least by a half a game right now and
02:06one full win. That's the Detroit Tigers in the American League at 33 and 18. A ton of action throughout
02:14this Memorial Day weekend in Major League Baseball in plenty of more key matchups dot the weekend
02:20slate, including this full Friday around the bigs. We are hoping certainly here on the East Coast in
02:27the Midwest DRS that throughout this weekend, Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial kickoff to
02:32summer this holiday weekend, we get warmer and warmer temperatures through and through Friday into
02:38Saturday, Saturday into Sunday, Sunday into that holiday Monday as well. That is our
02:44hope. I don't think we're in any danger of bad weather or at least cold weather in Atlanta this
02:49weekend. And of course, tonight is a big, big game for the Braves. They take on a reeling San
02:55Diego team that is riding a six game losing skid. But one of the main reasons DRS this game specifically
03:01on a Friday night in the A is so important is because because Ronald Acuna Jr. is set to make his
03:08season debut on May 26th last year tore his ACL missed the remainder of the season for the reigning
03:152023 NL MVP. He is back tonight for his first game of 2025. Chris Sale on the bump for Atlanta minus 178
03:24pitching Pavetta on the other side for San Diego as the Padres try to snap this six game slide. And Donnie,
03:31what can we expect out of Ronald Acuna Jr. in his return? I don't know. Hopefully good things here
03:37because that's what they're expecting. But the issue yesterday in their loss wasn't on offense. It was
03:41their pitching performance, which should be corrected tonight and also lost a wager yesterday.
03:45Olsen had a big night, which was great for me, but it needed Baldwin to get a base hit or at least a
03:49hit run and or an RBI wasn't able to do that last night, even in the game where they scored
03:54north of five runs. Those are always tough pills to swallow. But we, as you said, we are looking at better
03:58weather conditions. Why in Atlanta, it's a Southern city. Here's 75 degrees opening pitch
04:03with a seven mile an hour wind blowing out to left field. That should help. Also, we talk about
04:07Nick Pavetta coming into the season. Decent pitcher had a very good start to the season,
04:11but starting to leak a little bit of oil. If we take a look at his performances over the past 20
04:16innings pitched, he's got an ERA north of five, but he does have an exit still manageable at 3.84
04:21because he's a pretty good strikeout pitcher. His last 87 batters in the past month that he's faced,
04:26he's actually struck out 30% of those, but coming into this game, not a lot of high K rate guys in
04:31the lineup tonight for the Atlanta Braves against right-handed pitching. That should help. And also
04:35from Pavetta's start to the season, let's just say a 127 ISO and a 259 weighted on base percentage.
04:41If we combine his entire season into 199 batters, that's great, Ben, but let's focus on the last
04:4630 days for Pavetta. His last 87 batters he's faced, that 127 ISO goes up to a 218. That's above average.
04:53That weighted on base percentage, which was stellar at 259, that now sits at a 343 and also lefty and
04:59righties getting the best of them here. But the problem is that Atlanta Braves lineup hasn't showed
05:03out all that well to right-handed pitching over the past 30 days. Riley, Olsen, Ozuna, pretty good
05:08numbers. The rest of the guys, not a lot of power here, but let's flip it over to San Diego, which we
05:12told you on the program yesterday. If you did not hit yesterday, you weren't going to hit at all. And quite
05:17frankly, they had two runs on the board by the end of the second inning. They didn't score another two runs
05:21until the ninth inning of the fourth extras and then still lost that game. They don't hit left
05:25into pitching all that well. Chris Sale is going to be on the mound today. Sale's been great against
05:29right-handed batters, but leaky a little bit against lefties. We look in the lineup tonight,
05:33Cronenworth and Arise, both guys struggling against left-handed pitching over the past 30 days.
05:39I don't see a lot of hope here again for the Padres. Great ballpark to hit, great temperatures,
05:44wind blowing out. I got to tell you, still plays two and under for me.
05:47Yeah. DRS, I think it's really important what you said there. You see the six runs scored by San
05:53Diego, albeit in the extra innings loss yesterday in Toronto. You're like, all right, at least the
05:58bats woke up a little bit. They only had two until the top of the ninth in Gavin Sheets in a two-run
06:04bomb to tie the game in regulation. Of course, they added on a few in both the 10th and the 11th
06:09innings because the Padres in their previous five losses consecutively had scored a total of three
06:15runs. Again, I really do think this dates back to last weekend for the Padres in the devastating
06:21series sweep at home against the Mariners in the first ever Vetter Cup. We could look at it as a
06:27linchpin of this season and how it has changed the tide for San Diego. I guess we'll see if they bounce
06:33back this weekend in Atlanta. Huge matchup up in Flushing in Queens this weekend between the New York
06:41Mets and the LA Dodgers. Two of the best teams so far in the National League and of course a rematch
06:47between the two best teams last year in the National League, that NLCS rematch. The Dodgers
06:52and Clayton Kershaw, an ever so slight favorite tonight in Citi Field. Griffin Canning gets the
06:58start on the other side for the Amazons. A total of eight and a half. The weather this week, the
07:02RS in New York City, awful. A little bit better on this Friday and through the rest of the weekend.
07:08What will it mean for this series? Yeah, hopefully no rain there and that's what we're looking for
07:13tonight around 60 degrees at first pitch, which again, you say that's not bad temperatures. It
07:16is bad for late May at this point. We should be at least 65 plus degrees at a minimum right now.
07:21Here's the issue that we're going to look at. Like the Dodgers are always going to be a favorite. I
07:25don't think they actually should be favored tonight. Clayton Kershaw returning back to 2025. He got
07:29lit up and only faced 20 batters and was pulled quickly. You're also looking at a lineup against
07:34left-handed pitching over the past month in the Mets that doesn't strike out a lot because sometimes
07:37you look at the power numbers, which again, Marte, Soto, Alonzo, Vientos, and Nimmo have those power
07:42numbers and weighted on base percentage. But against a pitcher, that's not really a strikeout
07:46pitcher anymore. The ball's in play that usually good things happen for the offense. That's an
07:50advantage. You take a look at the Los Angeles Dodgers at the plate. They wreck lefty and righty
07:54handy right-handed pitching. It seems like, but more so right-handed pitching. The estimated starting
07:59line of tonight, which includes Michael Conforto, who's bad against right-handed pitching over the past
08:03month. Everybody else, man, high ISOs, high weighted on base percentages and low K rates.
08:08Like, wow, are we set for an over tonight? Not so fast because Griffin Canning, not really a household
08:13name. He's been really good to start the season here and particularly over the past 30 days, 21 and
08:18the third innings pitched. How about an ERA of 1.69 and a matching XFIP around 3.20? The question is
08:24that type of pitching, which has been a little bit leaky against lefties. And you know, the lefties in the
08:28lineup, Otani, Freeman, Muncy, Conforto, which is told you he's having a bad season, but also
08:33Edmond, who's a switch hitter, who will be batting lefty here. It's hard to bet against the Dodgers
08:37knowing what that lineup can do, but I got to tell you, it's hard to say. Like, Griffin Canning is a
08:41better pitcher than Clayton Kershaw. Not something that you would have said over the past 15 years in
08:45Major League Baseball, but this year it is a fact here. I'm actually going to go with that slight dog
08:49price here on the New York Mets. They should be able to hit Kershaw. They should be able to win this game.
08:53Kersh made his season debut, of course, last Saturday at home against the LA Angels. Only
08:59went four innings, about 83 pitches. Gave up five earned runs. It was a game for the Angels that
09:05they won. The Angels, by the way, have won seven straight, including sweeping the Dodgers last
09:10weekend in the rivalry set. The first time the Angels have swept the Dodgers in a decade and a
09:18half. The Mets and the Dodgers, two of the four teams around the National League that have won at
09:22least 30 games. The team will talk about next, the Chicago Cubs, also in that category. And a big
09:28one tonight, Incense, we'll break it down next. We continue breaking down the baseball slate in MLB
09:34on this full slate Friday here on the early line on Sports Grid. Tonight, at the Great American
09:40Ballpark, an NL Central duel between the Reds and the Cubs. Really good news on the injury front in a
09:47couple of spots today, DRS, including in Cincinnati. Hunter Green off the IL now for the Reds, the ace of the
09:54staff, who is having a tremendous start to this year before a groin injury placed him on the IL. His first start
10:01since early May, a 4-2 record, a 2-3-6 ERA, and an NL Cy Young contender at full health. Hunter Green back to face the
10:10Chicago Cubs. One of those four teams around the National League with at least 30 wins. Of course, the best record so far
10:16within this division. How do you break down the matchup today between the Cubbies and the Reds?
10:21Yeah, hopefully if we can see the same sort of picture Hunter Green was before the injury, that would be fantastic. 65 degree
10:27temperatures here at Great American Ballpark. Wind blowing out really to left center field around eight miles per hour. So
10:32decent hitting conditions tonight. But again, Hunter Green, do you trust the guy coming back off? Is that groin, you know,
10:38fully rehabilitated, which means that maybe you weren't going all out in your rehab starts or getting
10:43back to Major League Baseball? I usually tend to shy away from those type of situations, even though
10:47the expectations are he's healthy, he should pitch fine. You take a look at Matthew Boyd over the past
10:5129 innings over the last month at 372 ERA and a 322 XFIP number, which really checks out well. Now, over
10:58those last 30 days, 95 batters, he really does well against lefties, which he's only faced 24 of those. He's
11:04handled those, but the right-handed batters have gotten to him. However, though, it's one of those
11:07things where left-handed pitchers are quirky. Outside of very select teams here, most teams
11:12don't handle them all that well. Espinal's got a high weighted on-base percentage. Austin Hayes and
11:16Tyler Stevenson, but everybody else, limited at-bats and not a lot of success. And that includes
11:21Eli Dela Cruz. He has had 33 at-bats, and he's not even a lefty. He's a switcher. So we're batting
11:25from the right-hand side, an 032 ISO and a weighted on-base percentage of 242 and a K rate of close to 25%.
11:32If we look again at that Cubs lineup, it does present itself much better. But again,
11:37what are we getting out of Hunter Green in this game to try to focus? I can see where it's roughly
11:42a pick-em. That does make some sense. And where the eight and a half is to me, too many questions,
11:46too many variables here to me give an honest answer about this game tonight with the Cincinnati Reds.
11:50I get it, DRS. We'll see what Hunter Green has. You hope that he is healthy for my Cincinnati Reds,
11:57who I need to get to 80 wins this year. Right now, the Reds are 25-26, a game below .500 against
12:04Chicago. The best record in this division, 30-20. Skeens Day, number 34 in the history of Major
12:12League Baseball in start number 11 this year for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Don't worry,
12:17Buccos fans. Skeens isn't going anywhere just yet. Pittsburgh at home in the Steel City,
12:25a slight home favorite at minus 124, which is often only the case, DRS, when Skeens is on the bump.
12:31Really hasn't meant much. Ten outings for Paul Skeens this year. Pittsburgh as a team overall in those
12:37games, three and seven, including four consecutive losses when Skeens makes a start. Well, is he not
12:44as good as we expect? I know he's got a 2-4-4 ERA this season. How do you break down the matchup
12:49today inside PNC Park? Wait Skeens out. I mean, that's what most Major League Baseball teams do.
12:54Like, hey, Pittsburgh will get a run. Okay, well, maybe score a run against Skeens, and once you get
12:57to the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning, attack that bullpen here, because the lineup isn't great for
13:01the Milwaukee Brewers. You take the Terang, Contreras, and Hoskins, above average weighted on base
13:06percentages against right-handed pitching over the past month, which, again, is three out of your
13:10nine batters, and Skeens is an above-average pitcher, not just your run-of-the-mill right-handed
13:14pitcher. He should have a lot of success. 53-degree temperatures today in Pittsburgh. There is a nine-mile
13:20on-hour wind blowing out, but again, that's a true pitcher's ballpark, and with cooler temperatures,
13:24I don't know how much that ball is going to travel. Now, here's where Freddy Peralta's like,
13:27thank goodness I get to start against Pittsburgh, because that should be a walk in the park.
13:30His last 113 batters he's faced, how about a one-on-one iso power number against him,
13:35and a 265 weighted on base percentage. He's been really good, and outside of like O'Neal
13:39Cruz, everybody stinks in that lineup for Pittsburgh. So, for me, if you're betting Paul
13:45Skeens, I don't even know if you go with a K-prop at this point. It's almost like unbettable,
13:49like, hey, bet him to win the game. Good luck with that. Hey, bet him to get a lot of strikeouts.
13:52Well, it's cooler temperatures. Pitchers don't like that necessarily, and how long is he going
13:56to actually be out there? So, for me, it probably trends more to an under, and that's just because
14:00the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup absolutely stinks. The Buccos finally scored five runs yesterday for
14:07the first time in their last 27 games and still lost 8-5 at home against the Brew Crew. The New
14:14York Yankees swept the Rangers inside Yankee Stadium this week. They now head out to Colorado
14:19to take on the worst team in MLB history through 50 games. The Rockies are 8-42. We would expect
14:25DRS. The Yankees have a fun weekend out there in Denver. Look at that price. Yeah, exactly,
14:31and it's Tanner Gordon on the mound. Yeah, Captain America out here going up a lot of that smashes
14:37right-handed pitching. Let me see the temperatures out here. 80 degrees, light wind blowing in.
14:42Hey, by the way, Phillies yesterday, 7-1-1 team total didn't get anywhere near that and still
14:46won. That shows you how big Colorado is. Aaron Judge's first game in Coors Field, plus 138
14:52for a home. Wow. We're next.