- 6/17/2025
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00:00But in the meantime, it's Sonny Wright's out.
00:02It's Joe Ranieri.
00:02We got to talk some Major League Baseball.
00:04That's why we bring in our Major League Baseball insider right here on the
00:08Sports Grid Network.
00:09It's Craig Mesh.
00:10Craig, how you been?
00:12Great to see you guys again.
00:14It's a busy time right now for baseball for sure.
00:17About to take center stage here with the NBA and NHL wrapping up.
00:20It's big time now.
00:21Finally starting to get into them summer months here, ready to go as we have.
00:24But I'm only disappointed, Craig.
00:25You didn't tip me off to this Raphael Devers trade from the Boston Red Sox to
00:30the San Francisco Giants.
00:32Did anybody see this coming?
00:34Sunday night baseball about to begin.
00:36We get a trade.
00:37Oh, my goodness.
00:38The landscape changing in baseball.
00:40Tell me how this happened, Craig.
00:43Yeah.
00:43I mean, it caught everybody by surprise, I guess.
00:46I mean, literally had to change pitchers going into the game.
00:49Look, trades, you know, Donnie, don't just happen.
00:52Like, these things are discussed, and I'm guessing that this is going to go all the
00:56way back to even April or March when everything started happening with Devers.
01:00You know, teams, what happened is they sort of sniff out when things could be
01:03going right or wrong for a player, and then agents get involved, and believe me,
01:08there's a lot of back channel talking here, too.
01:10So nothing comes together immediately.
01:12But my guess is that this had been percolating for a while.
01:16It was very evident that Devers was not happy playing there.
01:19He did not want to play third, then he did not want to play first.
01:22And, you know, obviously when Bregman came in, too, there probably was some
01:25discontent there.
01:26But there's only so much that a player is owed, I think, at this stage.
01:30It kind of feels like both sides may be culpable a little bit for not having the
01:33proper communication for months at a time leading to this moment.
01:37But at least for now, the Giants appear to be a major step forward here.
01:43And the Red Sox are going to rely on a lot of young players.
01:46And I think from their side, hopefully, Donnie, they sign Bregman long-term,
01:49because otherwise it doesn't really make a lot of sense.
01:53I'm fascinated, Craig, from the Giants' perspective.
01:56Buster Posey gets the job, and all of a sudden they're spending money,
02:01and they couldn't get a big name.
02:02They couldn't get a franchise guy.
02:05They tried it, everybody, and swung and miss.
02:07Now they get Devers only a handful of games back here.
02:12What's the ceiling now for this Giants team, and do you think they're done
02:16spending money?
02:18Yeah, Joe, the point you make is fair, and I think that this is not just the
02:22Giants.
02:22If you remember, Joe, going back to the past, you know, the Cardinals had a
02:26really hard time signing guys through free agency, too.
02:28They had to make trades for Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, you know,
02:32and then sign players once they get there.
02:35I think Matt Holiday was also part of that.
02:37For some reason, the Giants are in that same boat.
02:39You're 100% right.
02:40They tried to sign Aaron Judge.
02:41They tried to sign Carlos Correa.
02:43They ended up giving money out to Willie Adamas in the offseason.
02:47They signed Solaire a couple of years ago, too.
02:50It just doesn't seem like players through free agency, at least from the
02:53hitting perspective, really want to sign with the Giants.
02:56So this may be the best way to do it, and hopefully Devers enjoys his time in
03:00San Francisco because he's going to be there a long time.
03:03He's already signed long term for them.
03:05So look, offensively, it's not the best park.
03:08But historically, if you look back, Joe, Barry Bonds is obviously the one name
03:13that comes to mind that had a lot of success there.
03:15And then you struggle, right?
03:16And then you think to yourself, which players have gone to San Francisco
03:20outside of Bonds and really had a lot of offensive success there?
03:24The one that comes to mind for me is Jeff Kent.
03:26He won the MVP, drove it 100 runs six years in a row.
03:28But it's very thin when it comes to offensive production there.
03:32So Devers is going to have to learn to hit in the Bay Area.
03:35Yeah, certainly struggled to start the season now, but also now, Craig, 15 home runs
03:39out of that power punch in the middle of that lineup.
03:41We'll see if they can provide that.
03:42If we just look at the updated outlooks here between both of these franchises to
03:46make the playoffs at the FanDuel Sportsbook, a minus 172 price here for the Giants and
03:50a plus 172 price now for the Boston Red Sox.
03:53We have massive news as well come out this weekend.
03:56The anticipation that Shohei Otani was coming back to the mound sooner than later, and that
04:00sooner than later was last night opened as the opener for the Dodgers.
04:04Wasn't all that impressive.
04:06One inning pitch, two hits, one earned run, didn't record a strikeout, but his velocity
04:10was there.
04:10And also added a couple of base knocks and RBIs.
04:13What can't this guy do?
04:14And also now the outlook for the Dodgers with Otani back on the mound, Craig.
04:18Yeah, look, if Otani can somehow get to five innings over the next couple of months, I mean,
04:24that's a huge weapon that they get back.
04:26I mean, I don't think that's going to happen for a bit here.
04:28I would expect, you know, him going to two and three and four innings.
04:32And then, you know, the all-star break comes maybe sometime after that.
04:35But this is why we've just never seen anybody like him in the history of the game.
04:38And I don't think that we ever will again.
04:41He's just a fantastic player.
04:43And from, you know, betting perspective, it's impossible right now to take a look at
04:46anybody else and think that if he pitches great in the second half, he's probably going
04:49to win the MVP again.
04:50So he's a unicorn, as they say, one of a kind, throwing 100 first time out.
04:58I mean, what is there left to say?
05:02There's nothing.
05:03Just rename the trophy after him, the Otani MVP, because I don't know how it goes.
05:08It's absolutely mind-blowing to me.
05:11Coming up now, we're at middle of June here, getting ready for July.
05:15All right, Craig, when you take a look big picture at some of these World Series odds
05:19that we've got, Dodgers still the favorite, even though they're not running away with
05:22the West just yet.
05:24Yankees are still second favorite here.
05:28Go down the list.
05:29Is there a team here you think we shouldn't be counting out at this point, though?
05:34No, I mean, I don't think counting out is, you know, look, the Braves are the one team
05:38that I thought that we would be looking at there, and they're not there.
05:41So, you know, they're going to have to, you know, very fast turn around in order to get
05:45this going.
05:45I don't think you could be seven, eight games under .500 in August and have it.
05:49I mean, you can win, but, you know, the West is really interesting because the Dodgers,
05:53the Padres, the Giants, and even the Diamondbacks, even without Corbin Burns, I feel like they're
05:58there as well.
05:59And then the great equalizer of all is going to be if Detroit can get through the AL because
06:05they have a guy that can pitch game one, game four, and game seven.
06:09They're the only team like that.
06:11I'm fascinated, Craig.
06:13I really am fascinated about the American League because the Yankees, who all of a sudden
06:16can't hit the baseball, loses a four straight games.
06:19Then you look at the Tigers.
06:20They're four games clear in the win column there of the Yankees and also five games clear
06:24of the Houston Astros.
06:25Are they for real for you?
06:26Like, do they hold up over the summer as, you know what, they're just as good as anybody
06:30else in the American League?
06:31Yeah, just going through a slump.
06:33I don't think there's anything to be concerned about.
06:35But look, everybody's going to freak out every day in sports.
06:38And look, baseball gets more magnified this time of the year, guys.
06:40Let's be honest.
06:41There are not multiple NBA games and NHL games on every night.
06:44We're all watching baseball every day.
06:47Yankees seem to go through offensive slumps every single season.
06:50They can't have judges carry them all year.
06:53But in a week or two, they'll be fine.
06:55Craig Mitch down there in South Beach watching the Philadelphia Phillies, the best team in
06:59baseball.
07:00He will even agree with that as well.
07:01Thank you, Craig Mitch, for joining us today on The Early Line.
07:07Major League Baseball to Tuesday and a full slate.
07:10Game number one starting at 6-10 Eastern here.
07:12Game, or the last game on the schedule, I should say, 10-10 PM out there with Los Angeles and
07:17San Diego.
07:18Joe, why don't we get started right away on that game?
07:21Randy Vasquez on the mound against Sauer.
07:249-0-9-9-10 on the rotation.
07:26A 10-10 start, as we said.
07:27And a monster favorite for the Dodgers, beating the Padres last night, looking to do the same
07:32tonight.
07:32Minus 215s to minus 220s out there in the landscape.
07:36And a total listed at 9.5 at Chavez Ravine.
07:39Randy Vasquez, usually one of my favorite fadable pitchers because his ex-fip is typically high,
07:44has been pitching better over the past 30 to 45 days here.
07:47But the Padres undermanned against the Dodgers.
07:50Can they hang around in this one?
07:51Dylan Cease couldn't last night, Joe.
07:53Yeah, no, he certainly couldn't.
07:56And it just feels like, even as decent as Vasquez has been as of late, like you pointed out there,
08:02Donnie, how are we not getting runs in this game?
08:06I still think runs are coming here.
08:09Nine and a half is the total.
08:11But I still think this is double digits.
08:14I think seven or eight runs wins it here.
08:18I would not at all be shocked if, in fact, the Dodgers run away with it.
08:23Maybe the run line and the over for me in this one.
08:26Yeah, Randy Vasquez, there's 29 pitchers on the card today, Joe.
08:30Over the last 30 days, I have at least five innings pitched.
08:33He's second to last.
08:34That ex-fip is over five and a 5.02.
08:36But his ERA is decent at 3.80.
08:39The one thing we've been liking here about Los Angeles the past couple days is the heat.
08:43Usually at night, what, Joe?
08:44We're talking 73, 74 degrees.
08:45It's been close to 80 at first pitch for these games, which should help those bats.
08:50You take a look at Randy Vasquez on the season as a right-handed pitcher.
08:53He's really struggled with left-handed batters.
08:55You don't want to do that against the Dodgers.
08:58Shohei Ohtani, left-handed batter.
08:59Freddie Freeman, lefty.
09:01Max Muncy, lefty.
09:02They have some power bats in the middle of that lineup that should be able to do damage.
09:05But the only question is, too, like we talk about, yes, Joe, there should be runs.
09:08Like Matt Sauer, I don't know how long he's going to go in this game,
09:11but you look at his last 30 days, only 50 batters he's faced.
09:14How about a 311 ISO against it, a weighted-on-base percentage of 486 and a low strikeout rate?
09:20So, yes, weather conditions here.
09:22It's just a matter of what are we getting out of the Padres?
09:24Can we play three-plus runs tonight again for the Padres?
09:27We're probably looking at a total in that environment, but an interesting game out there in the NL West.
09:32A day removed from Shohei Ohtani getting his first start in Major League Baseball in roughly two years here.
09:38Let's keep it moving, and a pivotal, pivotal series here.
09:42On the East, the NL East, hey, it's the Philadelphia Phillies playing good baseball.
09:45The Mets slipping a little bit.
09:46The Braves can't get out of their own way.
09:48Well, tonight in Atlanta, it's the Mets and it's the Braves.
09:51Peterson versus Schwellenbach, 905-906 on the rotation.
09:557-15 start.
09:56A favorite on the opening number at FanDuel, Joe, at a minus-136 price.
10:00It's dropped slightly live now to minus-134.
10:03You see that graphic was at a minus-130.
10:05The total did open up at 8.5 and still sits at 8.5.
10:09We're live in the Big 8 tonight.
10:11Weather conditions, 79 to 80 degrees at first pitch.
10:14Rain in the forecast, but should be clearing as the game goes on.
10:18How about the Braves?
10:19Need to maybe start a charge here, but the Mets need to end that losing streak.
10:23They need to do something, but, you know, Peterson and Schwellenbach have actually been
10:28steady forces in the rotation for their teams here.
10:32And it's hard for me to look at an over, even though it's at Truist Park, it's going
10:38to be, you mentioned some rain.
10:40There's some humidity, obviously.
10:42The ball tends to fly out of there.
10:44But quite honestly, the bats and the offenses of these two teams that we've seen over the
10:48last 10 days, not that impressive here, Donnie.
10:51I give the edge to the pitchers.
10:53I'm looking at a first five under in this one.
10:57I think the bullpens are going to have to get involved before the runs do.
10:59You'd be right about that, like just the way I grade this one out, because from the
11:04pitching prospects here, number six on the card today in XFIP is David Peterson.
11:07Well, where's Schwellenbach at?
11:08He's number one on the card today, Joe.
11:10280 ERA over the past 30 days and 35 in the third innings pitched.
11:14How about a 2.44 XFIP number, which is fantastic?
11:17Let me ask you this question because it pops up so many times.
11:20Like the analytics are the analytics between the pitchers and the hitters, but the teams
11:24themselves, right?
11:25New York floundering right now.
11:26Losers are three games in a row.
11:28You take a look at the Braves, four and six in their last 10, but they are 13 games behind
11:32the New York Mets.
11:33You cannot afford to lose this series to the New York Mets and say, hey, well, it's still
11:38a long summer.
11:39Like sooner than later, the Braves have to activate their season, which they haven't
11:43been able to do.
11:44How do you play up the battle of, we need to win this game, but the Mets need to break
11:48their losing streak?
11:50Yes, they do.
11:51And again, it's not time to hit the panic button for the Mets in any way, shape, or form.
11:57The Braves, however, the added pressure of what's been going on with them.
12:02And we just talked to Craig Mish and he said, I didn't expect them to be what, seven, eight
12:06games under 500 at this point.
12:08At some, you know, at some point, something has got to change.
12:12It would be a much bigger game for the Braves than for the Mets tonight.
12:15Yeah, David Peterson's been good for the Mets.
12:18The Mets need to stop that streak.
12:19But for me, you can really bury the Braves if you win this series against the Mets.
12:23Let's see what happens.
12:24More Major League Baseball handicaps next, right here on The Early Line.
12:30NL Central, Joe Ranieri.
12:32It's been all Cubs so far this season.
12:34Great lineup, getting good pitching, and away they go.
12:37The favorites to win the Central by a mile, it's still the Chicago Cubs.
12:40They played today against the Milwaukee Brewers, 907, 908 on the rotation at 805 start tonight.
12:46Milwaukee's going to throw Patrick going up against the Cubs Brown.
12:49You take a look at the side in this, opened up at the FanDuel Sportsbook overnight at a
12:52minus 152.
12:54You see the graphics at a minus 148 live.
12:56It's back up to a minus 152 price.
12:59If you look at the total, nine and a half overnight has shifted down to nine, which means you always
13:04want to check the weather conditions, which by the way, are mid 80s with a light wind blowing
13:09out and a drop in the total.
13:12Is that just because you look at that Brewers lineup like, it's Kristen Yellich and a bunch
13:16of bums right now, but that lineup is solid for the Cubs tonight.
13:20Favorite for the Cubs.
13:21They're at home, Joe.
13:22What are some initial thoughts between the Brewers and the Cubs for you?
13:26Well, you're right.
13:27Solid lineup, but let's take a look at the last five games for the Cubs.
13:32Let's see.
13:32They scored two runs against Philadelphia, three runs against Pittsburgh, one run against Pittsburgh,
13:38two runs against Pittsburgh, and three runs against Pittsburgh.
13:41They can't hit right now.
13:42If you think the Yankees are going through it, the Cubs have been doing this for a while
13:47now.
13:48So yeah, I get why the total is dropping.
13:52It would not shock me at all if this thing drops under nine, in fact, here, and it keeps
13:57going south.
13:58You got two pitchers in Brown and Patrick that have been more than capable of limiting
14:04the damage here.
14:06I lean the Cubs, but I like the under more with these two teams.
14:12Can't trust them offensively right now.
14:14I'll tell you what's interesting, too, because when the analytics creep in, right, if I tell
14:17you Ben Brown is number four on my playing card, it's like, wow, he's having a great last
14:2130 days.
14:22ERA is over seven, which is incredible, but his XFIP is 3.27, which means he's getting
14:27just a little bit unlucky.
14:29Chad Patrick, he's fifth on the card today, Joe.
14:31How about a manageable ERA of 3.08 and an XFIP of 3.35?
14:35Something has to give today, and most of the time, you see the favorite as the Cubs, and
14:38rightfully so.
14:39You give the benefit to their one through nine starting lineup, as opposed to the Brewers,
14:42but it's just interesting when you see the analytics angle say, oh, he has his ERA seven,
14:47and he's supposed to be a good pitcher today.
14:49Well, he doesn't give up too many fly balls, which is key, obviously, there in Wrigley.
14:52Number two, he does strike guys out.
14:54We'll see how it plays out today in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.
14:57Let's head up to Toronto for the next game, Joe.
15:00923, 924 on the rotation.
15:02It's Arizona and Toronto fought on the mound here for the Diamondbacks, going up against
15:06Chris Bassett, the right-handed pitcher of the Toronto Blue Jays.
15:09707 start, and how about this?
15:11A favorite of minus 136 overnight for Toronto has dipped down live now to a minus 124 price
15:18at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
15:19A total overnight had opened up at 8.5.
15:21We're now seeing nines.
15:22Brandon Ford has really, Joe, been struggling as of late here for the Diamondbacks.
15:28So first game home for Toronto after a nine-game road trip, which they started out great on,
15:35and then they hit Philadelphia, and they got destroyed.
15:39And really, the bats went cold here.
15:42Now their first game back at home.
15:44I don't tend to like the back teams, their first go-around home after a long road trip.
15:50But Chris Bassett is 5-0 at home with a 2.48 ERA and seven starts for the Blue Jays.
15:56And you mentioned, Fock.
15:58I mean, a guy, what, over an 8 ERA in May.
16:01He had some blow-up starts.
16:03He hasn't pitched more than, I think, six innings in June yet.
16:07So, you know, then you got to get that bullpen involved for Arizona.
16:12I like the price.
16:13I don't normally like teams' first go-around.
16:16But with Chris Bassett and those numbers at home,
16:19kind of feels like it's a good spot for Toronto to bounce back.
16:22Yeah, it looks like the Dome probably going to be open tonight.
16:2471, 72 degrees at first pitch here.
16:26Light wind blowing out to left field.
16:27But take a look at Brandon Ford, 27th out of 29 pitchers today in XFIT numbers.
16:32But look at his last 30 days.
16:34Only 19 and two-thirds innings pitched over five starts.
16:37So, you know, he hasn't been going well for him.
16:39How about an ERA of 10.07?
16:43I like the bats night for the Blue Jays.
16:45Put the Bargers in there, Kirk in there, Springer, Jimenez.
16:48All have high numbers.
16:49But if we just focus on Brandon Ford, his last 94 batters, Joe, that he faced,
16:53how about an ISO against of .326, which is almost double the league average,
16:57and a weighted on base percentage of .435?
16:59Lefty's crushing him.
17:00Righty's crushing him here.
17:02Could it be a big night?
17:02And the one thing I do like about Arizona is, you look at their lineup on a day-to-day basis,
17:06it always projects extremely well.
17:08We'll see what Bassett has.
17:09But the one thing I do know for sure is, I'm not backing Brandon Ford on the money line
17:13to win this game tonight.
17:14He has just been putrid, and they're on the road.
17:16We'll certainly see what happens here.
17:18We'll keep it moving down to Cincinnati we go.
17:20The Minnesota Twins going to take on the Reds.
17:22David Festa on the mound for the Twins.
17:24Going up against Andrew Abbott, the lefty here for the Cincinnati Reds.
17:28925, 926 on the rotation.
17:30A 710 start tonight.
17:32A light favorite overnight for the Reds at a minus 116 price, as you see on the graphic.
17:36We're now up slightly higher to a minus 122.
17:40The total, which opened up overnight at 9, still sits at 9 as well.
17:43The Great American Ballpark is host today.
17:45Twins and the Reds.
17:47What do we think of between Festa and Abbott?
17:49This is just a, this line stinks like nobody's business here, Donnie.
17:56You have a Reds team whose bats are, when they hit, it's great.
18:00When they don't, not so good.
18:02But they've really started to come around.
18:04At the Great American Ballpark, you're talking about Andrew Abbott, who's allowed zero or one run in nine of his 11 starts this season.
18:13It's at, plus he's averaging about nine strikeouts a game.
18:17He's not giving up a ton of home runs.
18:20David Festa, really?
18:23And a bullpen, by the way, for the Twins that has gotten lit up here over the last month right now.
18:29So, to me, this screams Reds, but the market is telling you maybe otherwise.
18:34Yeah, it is.
18:36It's an interesting one, too, because you're right.
18:37It is a cheap price.
18:38And, well, I don't really like the pitcher on the mound, Festa, here.
18:41And it's a home team, 75 degrees at first pitch, light winds blowing in.
18:45So, we should have some pretty good hitting environment.
18:47Also, with Festa, like his last 30 days here, 41 batters he's faced, a .378 ISO against, and a .399 weighted on base percentage.
18:56The guys that you look at in the lineup for the Reds who've been raking right-handed pitching,
19:00how about TJ Friedel, a .469 weighted on base percentage?
19:03How about Ellie De La Cruz, .574, Christian Encarnacion Strand, .497, Tyler Stevenson, .400,
19:10Jake Fraley, .380, even Will Benson with a decent ISO power number to go up against it.
19:15Might we see runs tonight here?
19:17That's probably the way that I would look toward this.
19:19Now, it is a full card in Major League Baseball tonight.
19:22We just had Craig Misch on there.
19:24And, again, the focus of South Florida, certainly, Joe, is not going to be lying with the Miami Marlins who the Phillies beat last night.
19:30Cal Quantrill is one of those pitchers I do like to fade in Major League Baseball.
19:34Jesus Lozardo, no stranger to Lone Depot Park.
19:37The Phillies picked him up here, and he was, or you should say he used to pitch with the Miami Marlins themselves.
19:42The Phillies are a massive favorite.
19:44Did you just continue to ride the Phillies on a hot streak here and say, Miami just can't get it together?
19:48Well, you know, the problem was, Lozardo had a nice bounce-back start last time around.
19:56But prior to that, Donnie, he was getting lit up like a Christmas tree.
19:59He wasn't making it out of the second or third inning, and that's a problem here.
20:05We have seen some over money come in pushing this up to eight and a half from an opening of eight here.
20:12But it's nice to see the Phillies' bats.
20:15I think the only way I would look at this, because I don't trust Lozardo necessarily,
20:20but I do think the bats of Philadelphia can score some runs off of Quantrill.
20:24So I am looking at Philadelphia's team total over two and a half in the first five in this one.
20:30It does make some sense.
20:32I'm always a big fade guy there, certainly for Cal Quantrill.
20:34If you look at another fade pitch from the mound today, don't we always just say,
20:37well, who's pitching for Colorado, and how can we get down and fade the guy?
20:40I think here's the interesting part.
20:42Like, again, Washington is close to a $2 favorite again today going up against the Colorado Rockies.
20:47But Senzatello's on the mound.
20:48He really struggles, Joe, with left-handed batters.
20:52James Wood, C.J. Abrams, Luis Garcia, Josh Bell, Nathaniel Lowe, Kybert Ruiz, Dalen Lyle.
20:59You have estimated eight left-handed batters in the lineup tonight going against Colorado.
21:05I think it's a bounce-back.
21:06And how about this, Joe?
21:0782 degrees at first pitch in the nation's capital, wind blowing out.
21:11I think we get some runs tonight off of Senzatello.
21:14But they're 2-12 in their last 14, and they can't score runs, Donnie.
21:20I mean, even last night, it's a struggle bus.
21:23So on paper, they should dominate, but you can't trust the offense right now.
21:28And it doesn't matter who's pitching.
21:31It would be hard for me to back Colorado, but I like the under instead.
21:35Minus 200 on those Washington Nationals tonight.
21:39How about that?
21:40We're going to talk more.
21:41Game six of the Stanley Cup final.
21:43We got a special guest coming up next.
21:45His name is Joe Ranieri.
21:47We'll be right back on the early line on the Sports Grid Network next.
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