- 6/20/2025
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00:00Major League Baseball in full swing, certainly here on a Friday.
00:03It is a full slate.
00:04Game number one will start in the windy city of Chicago at 2.20 p.m.
00:08The late night action tonight.
00:10There are three games in the 10 o'clock hour.
00:11Cleveland versus the Athletics.
00:13You take a look at Washington and Los Angeles, and that's the Dodgers,
00:16and Boston and San Francisco.
00:18So why don't we start there?
00:19Why is this a big deal?
00:20Like, wait a minute, just interleague play.
00:22It's Boston and San Francisco.
00:23They meet up every once in a while, just the way it is.
00:26But we got some added intrigue in this series.
00:28Why?
00:29Boston heads to town to take on the Giants.
00:32Raphael Devers used to be on the Boston Red Sox,
00:34was traded to the San Francisco Giants, and they meet up right away.
00:38The only shame of this show is that it's not actually in Fenway,
00:41and we've been a little bit more intriguing.
00:42But how do we feel about a new-look San Francisco Giants team still struggling
00:47to score some runs with Raphael Devers going up against his former team?
00:52Yeah, it's intriguing also because you've got two pitchers here in Dobbins
00:56and Birdsong that have never faced the other teams.
01:00So both of these lineups are going to go in blind without a whole lot of history
01:04against these two pitchers.
01:06And Dobbins has actually pitched pretty well as of late here.
01:10The big question is, do we think we're getting runs in this game
01:14and in this ballpark?
01:16Because even Devers in a lineup, they won yesterday to Giants,
01:20but it was 2-1 against the Guardians.
01:23I'm not sure we're going to get a ton of runs in this one.
01:26It feels like another under is coming in this game,
01:30despite Devers playing his former team.
01:34By the way, if I bought the San Francisco Giants
01:36and moved the fences in in that ballpark,
01:39would people get upset?
01:39You've got to get a splashdown.
01:41You've got to go over that big wall in right field.
01:42How about we lower that wall to eight feet, Joe?
01:44Sound better?
01:45Get some runs in that ballpark.
01:46Would you back me in buying the Giants to move that fence in?
01:49I would love that, but that's just not going to happen, Donnie.
01:55And quite honestly, I like it this way
01:57because it kind of gives us from a betting perspective,
01:59if we got some quality pitchers on the mound, then guess what?
02:03We can look for some unders across the board in these games.
02:07Yeah, how about this?
02:08The line opened up at 7.5 on the total,
02:10and it still sits at 7.5 across the board, which rightfully so.
02:13You take a look at the side itself,
02:14it was around a minus 150 price overnight here
02:16at the FanDuel Sportsbook towards the San Francisco Giants.
02:19That number's dropping, though.
02:20We've got the 132s now on the live numbers.
02:23Other outlets as low as a minus 127.
02:26If we look at Dobbins and Birdsong,
02:27the interesting part is, you know,
02:28two younger pitchers per se, right?
02:30How about this in the last 30 days?
02:32One pitcher in Dobbins, 23 innings pitched.
02:34The other pitcher in Birdsong, 20 innings pitched.
02:37Look at their ERA, 3.91 and 4.05.
02:40Very similar.
02:41How about their XFIP numbers over the past month, Joe?
02:43So, identical, both at a 3.89.
02:46So, tell me, these pitchers are in good form in a ballpark
02:49that certainly doesn't allow a lot of runs.
02:52Two offenses not exactly lighting it on fire.
02:54I'm with you, Joe.
02:55I don't think we get to eight runs tonight.
02:57But here's the bigger question, though.
02:59The FanDuel Sportsbook talking about Raphael Devers.
03:02How do we play him this weekend?
03:03Would you like him hit one home run?
03:05That's a plus 132.
03:06Two home runs, six to one price.
03:08Three home runs at 17 to one.
03:10Now, he does have 15 home runs on the season.
03:11And hasn't hit one yet for the San Francisco Giants.
03:14But I got to tell you, one home run over three games at plus 132,
03:18I don't think that's too bad here.
03:20Am I crazy?
03:22I'm with you.
03:23But again, one of the things we had mentioned when we talked about this
03:27for him going to this ballpark and the dimensions and the wind,
03:32and this is not Fenway.
03:34He's going to lose some home runs over the course of the season.
03:39But I do think pretty good opportunity here over the next couple of games.
03:42He gets one against his former team.
03:45Maybe, Donnie, even two or more against his favorite team.
03:50Ooh, see, I like that.
03:51Now you're talking.
03:51Look at that.
03:51Six to one prices.
03:53Three bombs.
03:5317 to one.
03:54Like, the way sometimes we're seeing some of these home run props,
03:57it's like, oh, that plus 132 is just for one game.
03:59And that will be tonight.
04:00So, at least you get three games out of that.
04:01And probably what?
04:02Maybe 15 at bats hit one home run.
04:04And you know the way the baseball gods work, right?
04:07Either he's going to strike out 10 times in the series,
04:10or he's going to be like, hey, this is what you missed right now.
04:12And you'll be overexcited at the plate.
04:14We'll certainly see how that plays out.
04:15But, again, not looking for a lot of fireworks tonight,
04:18as that total is only listed at 7.5.
04:21Let's get the game number one on the card today.
04:23That's the Seattle Mariners taking on the Chicago Cubs.
04:26It's Kirby versus Boyd.
04:28971, 972 on the rotation.
04:30This game, again, is an afternoon game in Wrigley, as they do on Fridays.
04:33This line opened up as around a minus 135 price as a favorite towards Chicago.
04:38You see the graphic on the screen right there, minus 130.
04:41That number is gone.
04:41It's actually minus 142 and higher at some other outlets here.
04:45But a total, we love it at Wrigley.
04:47It's nine and a half.
04:49Now, you might say, like, hey, Kirby's decent.
04:50Boyd's decent.
04:51But so are the temperatures.
04:53And the wind being decent today in Wrigley, Joe, 76 degrees at first pitch.
04:57This game will be in the 80s by the time it finishes.
05:00And a double-digit wind blowing out the center field.
05:03We always get high numbers there.
05:04The question, though, is will we see double-digit runs combined here?
05:09Yeah.
05:10Well, you can tell where the wind's blowing, right, with this number done?
05:14Because we've seen lesser in the former series here with the Cubs.
05:18But listen, Seattle bats hit or miss.
05:21They were quiet over the three-game series against the Red Sox, which is why they lost
05:26two of three.
05:27Boyd has some history against these hitters from his time when he was with Detroit.
05:34But Kirby, I don't think, has ever faced anybody here with the Cubs.
05:37He's never seen them before.
05:39Not exactly a great ballpark for him, as he does give up a lot of fly balls.
05:44And if that wind's going out, I get it.
05:46But I tend to think that the Cubs will handle business.
05:51Anything under 150, I think, is a pretty good value here for the Cubs in this spot.
05:56Like they say, Joe, opposites attract in Major League Baseball.
05:5927 pitchers on the card today.
06:01Minimum of five innings pitched over the past month.
06:03Take a look at their XFIP numbers.
06:05George Kirby's fifth on the card today at a 3.14.
06:08That's very good.
06:09You take a look at the 20th-ranked pitcher on the card today with XFIP.
06:12That is Matthew Boyd.
06:13He's at a 4.30.
06:15So then if we roll reverse here, you say, wait a second.
06:18George Kirby's a top-five pitcher on the card today, Donnie.
06:20What's his ERA?
06:21How about his ERA over his last 25 and two-thirds innings?
06:24Six.
06:24It's a six.
06:26Take a look at Matthew Boyd, who I just told you, 20th on the card in XFIP.
06:29His ERA over the past month, 2.45.
06:32So is the analytics going to win?
06:33Or is the eye test and basically ERA going to win out today?
06:36The one thing that we do know is the temperatures are high, 80 degrees with the wind blowing out.
06:40Some of those batters that you might like.
06:42And again, Matthew Boyd's been decent.
06:44His last 113 batters that he's faced.
06:46How about a 1.14 ISO against in a 275, waiting on base percentage?
06:50However, the Seattle Mariners, Joe, they've hit left-handed pitching pretty well over the past 30 days.
06:55Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Jorge Polanco, Randy Rosarana, Donovan Solano,
07:00all high, weighted on base percentages here and high ISO power numbers.
07:03And also a key part here, if you like hitter's props, this team does not walk at all.
07:08So if Matthew Boyd's not a high strikeout guy and they don't take walks, the ball should be in play today.
07:13Maybe some runs in the friendly confines.
07:16More Major League Baseball talk next on this Friday morning show right here on the Early Line.
07:22Let's get to it here.
07:23NLE's talk because just a few short weeks ago, I should have said days ago, like the New York Mets,
07:28oh look, they already clinched the NLEs.
07:30The Phillies absolutely stink.
07:31The Braves, they're never going to recover.
07:33And the Mets playing some of their best baseball of the season with the best record in the majors.
07:37A losing streak combined with another team's winning streak gets you to the New York Mets
07:41and the Philadelphia Phillies in a virtual tie in the NLEs for first place.
07:45Now they're going to meet up for a three-game set this weekend in Philadelphia.
07:49But if you're looking to be a streak, like what is your likely, hey, our ace is on the mound.
07:53We're going to break this streak.
07:54So the Mets have shown up looking to break streaks against like Chris Sale.
07:59Throw Blackburn out there.
08:00That doesn't work out very well.
08:01That's an easy victory for the Atlanta Braves and you give them life.
08:04Now they come to Philadelphia.
08:05Let's throw our ace out there.
08:08It's Tidwell versus Wheeler.
08:10And the Phillies favored by about $2 in this game.
08:12Actually, Joe, they opened up as a $2.35 favorite overnight.
08:15You see that graphic at $2.30.
08:16People buying in a little bit to the Mets, though.
08:18It's a minus $1.88 on good old show me the money, Mr. Tidwell in Philadelphia.
08:24Before we get to the game itself, coming into this again, the Mets on a slide.
08:27How do you approach Major League Baseball teams where they're not playing great baseball?
08:32Do they have to show you something?
08:34Or is it just so simple if they have a good pitcher, you take them and eventually they'll bounce back.
08:38But again, Tidwell's on the mound today.
08:41Why the love for the Mets?
08:43Doesn't he own the Arizona Cardinals?
08:46Or that might be a different Tidwell.
08:48But that's a blade, not blade, blade Tidwell is on the mound.
08:53And listen, why not?
08:55I mean, when you look at his numbers at AAA, he's got nearly a five ERA.
09:00He had close to a six last year.
09:02So, yeah, let's throw him right into a National League East rivalry game and put him up against Zach Wheeler.
09:11I don't understand what this is all about.
09:14The bullpen, by the way, of the Mets got used pretty much here against, they've had to waste a lot of arms here against that Braves series.
09:23So, to me, are we not laying the run and a half with Philadelphia?
09:28You know, show me something here.
09:30Mets on the road still and they have not been good on the road.
09:34Feels like the Phillies and the run line is in play tonight.
09:37Yeah, maybe get that dog price, a little bit of extra money there if you take the run line on the Philadelphia Phillies.
09:42Don't have much to work with on Tidwell, but you're right about that.
09:45We usually go back and say, okay, is this the flamethrower coming up like Mizorowski there for the Brewers, right?
09:51It's like, hey, this kid's coming up touching a hundred.
09:53Like, we're not getting those vibes here from Tidwell.
09:55Hasn't had a very good season so far in AAA.
09:57The Phillies lineup projects itself very well against right-handed pitching, particularly Joe over the past 30 days.
10:02And in Philadelphia today, muggy temperatures, 80 degrees at first pitch here tonight.
10:06Wind blowing out to right field, Turner, Schwarber, Boehm, Castellanos, Kepler, and Real Mucho all have really good weighted on base percentages here.
10:13Here's the interesting part.
10:15Zach Wheeler did used to pitch for the New York Mets and maybe files that away from time to time.
10:19But he's been good this season just like he is every time.
10:22But the Mets also, against right-handed pitching over the past month, have hit very well against right-handed pitchers.
10:27Nimmo, Soto, Alonso, Marte, McNeil, and also Mauricio have really good statistics, both with ISO power numbers and weighted on base percentages.
10:35Could this be a sneaky total over tonight, even though we have an ace in Wheeler on the mound?
10:42Kind of feels like, I'd even take it further, right?
10:45Take advantage of Blade Tidwell and give me the Phillies team total over in the first five.
10:51It's probably two and a half, Donnie, somewhere in that ballpark.
10:54They are at a decent price.
10:56I would look for the Schwarmers of the world to take advantage of Blade Tidwell early and often here.
11:04Yeah, and also you take a look here at Zach Wheeler, number two on that card.
11:07No surprise today.
11:08His last 30 days, four starts, 24 innings pitch, a three ERA, which is actually a little bit high for him technically.
11:14But that XFIP at a 2.59.
11:16The Phillies can take sole possession of first place with a victory.
11:18Or the Mets can salvage back sole first place tonight if they can knock off Wheeler with Tidwell on the mound.
11:25Another game we'll take a look at down at Tampa.
11:27We love the heat and humidity, but that game did stay under yesterday.
11:31963-964.
11:32Detroit Tigers taking on the Tampa Bay Rays.
11:34Flaherty versus Basel on the mound.
11:36A 7.05 start.
11:37The total opened up at 8.5.
11:39Still sits at 8.5, but a de facto pick-em here.
11:41Look at that.
11:42Minus 108 on both sides between the Tigers and the Rays.
11:45Now, the Tigers did play a doubleheader yesterday, got on a plane, flying down to Tampa.
11:50So maybe that bullpen a little bit exhausted at this point, and even playing in extra innings.
11:53Any bounce for Tampa tonight down there in George Steinbrenner Stadium?
11:59Well, it would be, it's kind of hard when you consider what we've gotten from Tampa over the last, in the month of June, right?
12:06We talked about some of their numbers, and they've been absolutely crushing the ball here.
12:10But, you know, they got one run yesterday against Baltimore.
12:14They ended up getting one of their relievers hit with a ball in the dugout.
12:18He had to get stretchered off the field.
12:21It was just a rough scene.
12:23And I'm not seeing any money to be over, Donnie, in this one.
12:27To me, it's, they're telling us, bet the under here, 8.5.
12:32Could have some tired legs here and tired swing speeds.
12:36Hey, is there any surprise?
12:3785-plus degree temperatures today down at Steinbrenner Field.
12:40Let's get the runs, more baseball, up next on The Horizons.
12:43Stay with us.
12:45More Major League Baseball.
12:46Who says no?
12:47We love baseball on a Friday as we get ready for game number seven in the NBA, which will take place on Sunday night.
12:53But on the early line, we got business to attend to.
12:55And that business also includes the Minnesota Twins.
12:58We're going to take on the Milwaukee Brewers today.
13:00Mizorowski on the mound for another start.
13:02Going up against Ryan, 975-976 on the rotation.
13:058-10 p.m. start.
13:07How about this line dip here, which we saw with Zach Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies?
13:11Overnight, around a minus 190 price at the Fan Blue Sportsbook.
13:13Now sits at a minus 158.
13:16Money coming in on the Young Miz here for the Brewers.
13:19A total that opened up at 8, still sits at 8.
13:21These are always the interesting ones for me because you saw Mizorowski with a good start.
13:25And until you get a book at the Major League Baseball level, and until you face certain teams the second and third time,
13:30maybe they don't know quite what they're going to get.
13:32Do we get a surprise in store where Milwaukee money coming in, and that's the right side tonight?
13:38Yeah, well, I got news here.
13:39The kid looked phenomenal, right?
13:41There's been a lot of hype around him leading into that first start.
13:46I believe it was against the Cardinals.
13:48And he has been, you know, he's lived up to the hype.
13:52Now, the bats finally awoke yesterday for the Twins, who have been basically a 500 team now going on about a month here after that really hot streak that they had.
14:03And Joe Ryan is the guy, is their ace at home.
14:06Feels like runs might be hard to come by here.
14:09Both bullpens, we know, are more than capable of limiting damage.
14:14I like the under in this one.
14:16A good old-fashioned pitcher's duel could be coming our way here.
14:19Yeah, pitcher's ballpark, too.
14:21It is warm in Minnesota today, Joe.
14:2385 degrees, but a double-digit wind blowing in from right field certainly never helps.
14:27If you look at Joe Ryan, he's had a decent season as well.
14:30But if we're looking at where he's struggled over the past 30 days, it's the left-handed batters.
14:34The last 38 batters he faced from the left side, Joe, low strikeout rate, high walk rate, high ISO, and high weighted on base percentage.
14:40Now, you look at the Milwaukee lineup, there's never really a lot to love there.
14:43But Christian Yelich has continued to have a very, very good past month here.
14:4762 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
14:49How about a .364 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of .466?
14:54We'll see what happens.
14:54But I sort of agree.
14:55Like, it's warm temperatures, but a wind blowing in.
14:57Not a lot of great batters here.
14:59Maybe the Miz can turn in another good performance, and he can hold the bats down here for Ryan.
15:03Maybe that does stay under the total.
15:05Let's go out to San Diego, which, hey, maybe it's a decompression series against Kansas City,
15:09because that's not really a rival as opposed to coming off a series with the Dodgers.
15:13You steal the final game.
15:14A lot of people getting hitting by pitches.
15:15We'll see what happens in this game tonight.
15:17But one thing we don't expect are runs here.
15:19It's Lorenzen versus Pavetta.
15:21977, 978 on the rotation.
15:23940 start tonight.
15:25How about the total open up at 8, as you see on the graphic.
15:27We're now down to 7.5s across the board.
15:30For San Diego as the favorite, they opened up as a minus 190 price.
15:33They now sit at a minus 162, much less than the graphic on the screen, at minus 184.
15:39A lot of big bites of the apples so far in a couple of these games, Joe, with the underdog teams,
15:44which includes Kansas City coming to town to take on the Padres.
15:48Yeah, and again, the Tatis getting hit yesterday, not really knowing what his condition is.
15:55I would guess he's probably not going to be in the lineup here tonight for San Diego.
16:00Not to mention, they're already without Jackson Merrill, who's in a concussion protocol.
16:04He won't be available until Sunday.
16:07So, those are two pretty important pieces for the Padres here.
16:13And Pavetta's on a mound for him, though.
16:15So, that should make Padre backers feel a little bit better in this spot at home.
16:21Listen, if Tatis is not going, you'd be hard-pressed for me to want to back an over or expect runs here,
16:29although Kansas City's done a pretty good job against Texas lately in scoring runs.
16:33Feels like a first five under for me.
16:37That's a lot of bats and a lot of power in that Padre lineup that won't be available to him.
16:41Yeah, that's the key ingredient, too.
16:44But we're also taking a look at, like, Nick Pavetta had had some struggles here over the past month,
16:47but looked very good in his last start.
16:49But then I take a look at Michael Lorenzen.
16:50Like, again, Joe, 27 pitchers on the card rated.
16:53He's 27th on the card.
16:54And it's like, oh, well, maybe things aren't matching up.
16:56He's getting unlucky.
16:57Like, he has had 19 to two-thirds innings pitch.
16:59How about an ERA of 8.24?
17:01And then you look at his exit.
17:02It's 5.50.
17:03So the fact that he's taking on money is kind of interesting to me outside of not just looking at statistics.
17:09Tatis probably won't be in the lineup tonight.
17:11We could probably agree.
17:12And also, you had a heated series with the Dodgers where now it's not the Dodgers and it's Kansas City.
17:17Jack Caggs with a couple home runs yesterday.
17:19We'll see what happens.
17:20But it's kind of interesting that that big precipitous drop, even though I think you have the better pitcher on the mound
17:25and maybe by a wide margin at this point.
17:27We'll see how that one plays out.
17:28Cincinnati and St. Louis in the National League is going to be a central battle.
17:329.55, 9.56, a 7.15 start tonight.
17:36And a favorite here for St. Louis overnight.
17:38Minus 136, as you see the graphic.
17:40Live, we're up as high as minus 142.
17:42And across the betting landscape, some 150s are starting to appear.
17:46Singer versus Palante on the mound.
17:48A nine total, which was the opening number, still sitting at nine.
17:51Let me just do a quick check here for you, Joe, on the weather conditions today.
17:54Here we go.
17:5589 degrees at first pitch.
17:57Double-digit wins blowing out to left field.
17:59Questionable pitching out there.
18:01Ooh, do we see some runs at Busch Stadium?
18:04Yeah.
18:05You know, the problem with the Reds is that they aren't very good against their own division.
18:10They've only won one series.
18:13They've only won 10 of 23 games against the competition in their division here.
18:19And really, most of the wins get against the Pirates, which I don't think really counts.
18:24So, St. Louis at home here.
18:27Bats are getting going again.
18:28I like Palante because he doesn't miss a ton of bats, but he doesn't give up a ton of home runs either.
18:36Keeps the ball on the ground.
18:37Busch Stadium in a hot, humid night.
18:39Always tough to look towards and under.
18:42But I kind of like the Cardinals in this spot here.
18:46Can't trust the Reds on the road coming off of that beatdown by Minnesota yesterday.
18:50So, yeah, I'm leaning towards the cards in this one.
18:54It's interesting, too.
18:55You look at the lineup today for the Reds that we anticipate.
18:58It has some pretty good numbers here against right-handed pitching over the past month,
19:00but also over the past month for Palante.
19:02Knocked around a little bit by right-handed batters, but not by left-handed batters.
19:06And you're going to get quite a few left-handed batters in that lineup tonight for the Cincinnati Reds.
19:10If we flip it over to St. Louis, like Brady Singer, here's one of those things where it's, again,
19:14eye test versus actually what the analytics are telling us.
19:17Singer, I have 26 out of 27 pitchers in XFIP today.
19:20His last month, 28 innings pitched.
19:22A 3.21 ERA, which is very good, but that XFIP at a 5.27.
19:27Here's the issue.
19:28Brandon Donovan's got a good weighted on-base percentage.
19:30Wilson Contreras does as well.
19:31And Alec Burleson, out of everybody else, just not good here.
19:35A lot of question marks in this game that say, yes, you have a bad pitcher on the mound
19:38or the chance to have a bad pitcher on the mound.
19:40You still need a pretty good hitting lineup to do some damage.
19:42I don't know if we have that here.
19:44Now, the New York Yankees woke up yesterday, Joe Ranieri.
19:47Seven runs for them.
19:49They're going to take on the Baltimore Orioles today, live in the Bronx from Yankee Stadium.
19:54Max Freed, maybe the de facto ace there of the New York Yankees roster, going up against
19:58Sugano, 961-962 on the rotation.
20:01A 7.05 start in the Bronx and a heavy, heavy favorite.
20:04Overnight, minus 220.
20:06You see the graphic on the screen, minus 225.
20:09It now sits, minus 255 at the FanDuel Sportsbook here for the New York Yankees as a heavy favorite.
20:15Nine as the total overnight, Joe.
20:17Still sitting at nine now.
20:19Weather conditions in the Bronx tonight.
20:20Muggy conditions.
20:2181 degrees at first pitch.
20:23And a close to double-digit wind blowing out to right center field.
20:27Can the Yankees repeat and put some numbers up on Sugano in this one?
20:31Yeah, I kind of hope so.
20:33Because he's a guy, Sugano, that is a regression candidate.
20:37He's got, you know, a decent ERA at 3.38, but he's got a 4.70 FIP.
20:44So he's gotten lucky.
20:47He doesn't exactly miss a ton of barrels.
20:49He gets guys to chase pitches out of the zone.
20:53And that's kind of what has sustained him.
20:55But I think the Yankees, they got off the schneid yesterday.
20:59The guys that were struggling got back hitting the ball.
21:02I think that's a good sign.
21:03You mentioned the wind blowing out.
21:05If you're not striking guys out and you're going to pitch the contact,
21:09I like the Yankees' chances in this one of scoring runs.
21:13I like the over as well.
21:15Yeah, it's such a key ingredient, too, because you're right about this.
21:18Oh, this guy's got a good ERA or whatever he has.
21:20If you don't strike out batters at Major League Baseball
21:22and you strike them out at only 14% over your past 30 days,
21:26that's balls in play.
21:27And if you're talking about the Bronx in a smaller stadium,
21:29you know, hot temperatures there, muggy, wind blowing out,
21:31you're eventually going to get touched up.
21:33And also, he's 22nd on the card today with his XFIP number.
21:36ERA close to four, XFIP number 4.40.
21:39But also, he's facing Max Free, number one pitcher on the card today.
21:43How about a 2.53 XFIP over the past 30 days,
21:46which includes 32 and a third innings pitch and an ERA of right around three.
21:50The Yankees probably should be a heavy favorite.
21:52It'll be interesting to see if the good vibes can be rolled over today.
21:55Seven runs and a win yesterday.
21:57Can we get another seven runs in the Bronx today?
21:59Maybe Aaron Judge getting back into that home run out.
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14:36
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