- 6/24/2025
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00:00Welcome to our number three, our third and final live right here on the early line on SportsGrid.
00:06He is Donnie. I am Ben. In this third and final hour, we preview a full Tuesday slate.
00:12That's 15 games, all 30 clubs in their midweek sets around Major League Baseball.
00:17We'll have Brian Fonseca join us here later on in this third and final hour for his final reactions
00:23to the end of the NBA season and the Oklahoma City Thunder winning their first championship
00:28and 17 seasons in OKC and some early thoughts on the offseason and the NBA draft as well.
00:36DRS, we start off this third hour, though, from the brilliant baseball mind of Donnie Wright's side
00:42with a ton of baseball breakdowns as we already wrapped up our Fade the Public poll.
00:47Yeah, we'll have a good time here talking about some of these games.
00:50Again, still hot temperatures here in the Northeast.
00:52It's going to be a shame like midweekly. Oh, man, it's only 83 degrees in the ballpark there.
00:56You're still going to get some of those high 90s, some good pitching matchups here as well.
01:00The Philadelphia Phillies, we'll talk about taking on Houston.
01:02That's a great pitching matchup. We'll see if Spencer Strider can continue to get back,
01:05fighting back from his multiple injuries that he's had, whether it's his arm end or hamstring here,
01:10going up against a pivotal matchup with the New York Mets.
01:12And also, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who I used to coin the phrase of team launch angle.
01:16You know where they're at today? They're in Colorado.
01:19So some fun games to bet for with some matchups that we can dig into.
01:22Absolutely so, DRS. And let's start with a game that you already referenced,
01:28the Philadelphia Phillies beginning a midweek set with some interleague intrigue today in H-Town
01:34against the Astros. Two lefties on the bump. Ranger Suarez for the Titans, for the Strohs.
01:39It is from Revaldez. Houston is a home favorite around $1.50, now minus $1.48 on the FanDuel.
01:46Sportsbook, that total working its way up to seven and a hook. A really good pitching matchup, DRS.
01:52But again, warm temperatures. It is summer. We can expect some offense.
01:57The Phillies have lost five straight on June 8th since they have won 10 of their last 13.
02:03The Houston Astros basically in the month of June. 31-27 DRS.
02:08On the final day of May, they are now 45-33. So in this month of June, in the 20 baseball games,
02:15the Strohs have played 14-6. They have opened up a strong advantage atop the American League West.
02:22How does this interleague series in the midweek begin today in Houston?
02:26Yeah, I don't know why that line is actually moving up from seven to seven and a half.
02:30I'm going to tell you why it could be shifting, but why? I don't know if we're going to get too
02:33many runs in this game. But also understand this. I always like the bag on the people of Houston.
02:37It's 86 degrees there. Too hot. Can't have that roof open, Ben, so that'll probably be closed today.
02:41In Houston, understand this. 71 degrees, you're in a jacket, and school is canceled because it's
02:45too cold. 73 degrees, nobody can go outside. So unless it's 72 degrees, that roof cannot be open
02:52in Houston because everybody either freeze and or melt. It's a shame because you're right, Ben.
02:5686 degrees down there in Texas. Heat and humidity in that ballpark. We'd love to see it.
03:01But let's get to the game itself here. Ranger Suarez. You take a look at him coming in.
03:04Look at his last month. 33 to third innings pitch. How about an ERA of 1.09 and an XFIP
03:09number of 3.25? Frambois Valdez going to counter him on the mound. Again, both left-handed pitchers,
03:14as you stated. 27 innings pitch, a 233 ERA, and a 214 XFIP number. But here's the interesting
03:20part. Last 129 batters that Frambois, excuse me, Ranger Suarez, the leftiest face for the
03:26Philadelphia Phillies. How about an 083 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 239?
03:30Absolutely spectacular. But look at this lineup tonight for the Houston Astros.
03:35Remove Christian Walker, who's a right-handed batter. His last 19 at-bats against left-handed
03:39pitching. He's been brutal. Everybody else, I'll just give you the weighted on base percentages
03:43here for those guys. And keep in mind, 320 to 325 is a very good number. Anything above that is elite.
03:50Peña, 590. Paredes, 546. Altuve, 392. Diaz, 329. Smith, 555. Myers, 442. Hummel, 550. Dubon, 474.
04:04Eight extremely high-plus batters going up against Ranger Suarez. You say to yourself,
04:09like, wow, that should be an easy victory. Not so fast at this point, because even if you take a look
04:13at that lineup here for the Philadelphia Phillies that has some good batters, but from the total
04:16perspective, Valdez, last 107 batters he's faced, an 094 ISO and a 262 weighted on base percentage.
04:24Like, you're looking at two pitchers in peak form. And understand this. Yes, Houston could bust out
04:29the bats, but what does that mean? Three runs off Ranger Suarez? He's been absolutely filthy the last
04:34month. And Valdez certainly has been his equal. So I look at this game and say, if we get the eight
04:39runs, it's just because the Houston Astros put up, I don't know, five of those eight runs. I look for
04:45that game to stay under the total. But I do like, though, based on the matchup, just with the plate
04:50appearances here, the Houston Astros to win this game. And I do agree they should be favored, even
04:54if Ranger Suarez has been absolutely lights out. Two divisional leaders facing off this week, DRS
05:01in Houston. The Astros have a four and a half game lead over the Seattle Mariners. A minus 330 favorite
05:07is Houston to win the American League West. The Phillies now a game and a half advantage atop the
05:12National League East because of how great of baseball they have been playing in the last
05:15two and a half weeks or so. Minus 150 to win the division at this time. Part of the reason
05:21the Phillies have that game and a half advantage. New York Mets have been struggling. They have dropped
05:27nine of their last 10 games since June 12th. On that date, the Mets were 45 and 24 with the best
05:34record, not just in the division, but all of Major League Baseball. They continue their four game
05:39midweek set in Queens this week against the Atlanta Braves, who have beaten the Mets four
05:44times in a row in the last week. Yesterday, DRS behind Spencer Schwellenbach. The Braves were a
05:51minus 146 favorite. Tonight, it's the other Spencer for Atlanta, Spencer Strider. And what are the Braves?
05:57A minus 146 road money line favorite. You told us early, basically before we recap the opener of the
06:04four game set yesterday inside Citi Field. The Braves won three to two yesterday. They're going
06:09to win today as well. How come? Spencer gifts, man, not just at your mall, but also on your local
06:16mound here for the Atlanta Braves. And they got to continue tonight. How about 95 degree temperatures?
06:21Would you love to see that? It's great hitting weather. If I told you the first five batters in
06:24the lineup anticipated tonight for the New York Mets against right into pitching 338, 516, 462,
06:30476, and 402 and weighted on base percentage, you'd love to see that. If I would have told you
06:35just a few short weeks ago, Spencer Strider was struggling to regain form at this point. Hey,
06:39you know what? That's probably in line for a victory. Not so fast. Look at the past two starts
06:43for Spencer Strider. One against Colorado, one against the New York Mets. That's 12 total innings
06:48pitched, one earned run, and 21 strikeouts here. He's starting to get back into rhythm, and that is a
06:55terrible sign for the New York Mets. Now, if we flip it over to the Atlanta batters,
06:58do we love them on a day-to-day basis? No. Ronald Acuna has been absolutely spectacular.
07:03Should always be in your lineup every single night regardless of pitching matchup. You want bases,
07:06you want base hits, you want RBI, you want home runs. He gives you those added advantages.
07:11Matt Olsen has been very good, but the questions are, what are we getting out of Frankie Montez tonight?
07:15So, if I keep it simple, the Mets are playing horrendous baseball right now. Strider looks like he's a
07:20Cy Young Award candidate again. I'm just going to take that and say, you know what? The Mets are the
07:24better team once again today because they have the better pitcher. They'll find a way to win.
07:28And I see that price point there around that minus 150. Ooh, yesterday it was a high, you know,
07:32minus 125s, minus 135s, minus 140s. You have an equally good pitcher on the mound today. The
07:38Mets are slumping. I'm going to continue to fade that situation, and I'll take Atlanta again where
07:42Strider, I expect very good things from tonight. Part of that slump, DRS, last Thursday in Atlanta
07:48when Strider started against New York. Six innings of work, only five base knocks, and one earned given up.
07:54Just one walk as well. Some control issues for Strider as he was working his way back. One walk
07:59to 8Ks last Thursday in the A. Not a great sign for the New York Mets to be a home dog against the
08:06Atlanta Braves. The Braves still 36 and 41. We talked about the Mets' struggle earlier, recapping
08:12the opener of the four-game set between these divisional foes. Atlanta, still five games,
08:17sub-500, 36 and 41 as we shared. Plus 290 DRS to be a playoff team around the National League. Still
08:25a lot of work to be done, but we really stuck the fork in those Braves. Maybe it's still in the Braves,
08:32but starting ever so slightly, perhaps, to lift its way out. Another divisional duel continues
08:39under the arch in St. Louis between the Cardinals and the Cubbies. We'll talk about that next here on
08:45the early line. Live right here on the early line on Sports Grid from the brilliant baseball mind of
08:50one Donnie Wright's side. We continue breaking down this full Tuesday slate in the midweek around MLB.
08:57Another divisional rivalry like we saw last night in Queens between the Mets and the Braves started,
09:02but the Atlanta Braves were the road team last night. They won the home team last night under
09:07the arch in St. Louis. The Cardinals victorious to cut into the Cubs gap in the National League Central.
09:14Three and a half game lead still for Chicago over Milwaukee and St. Louis, but the Redbirds
09:19stay in red hot winning yesterday. Eight to two courtesy of four separate two run home runs from
09:25four players for St. Louis. Tonight DRS game number two in the loom. Chicago an ever so slight road
09:32favorite minus 118. Now that updated number on the FanDuel Sportsbook over understands at nine. We got
09:38the double digits last night in St. Louis. Are we going to see more offense tonight under the arch?
09:44Yeah, 90 degree temperatures again at first pitch and keep in mind, it's not even a day game. It's a
09:48night game. 745 Eastern start here. 90 degree temperatures, light winds blowing out to left
09:52center field. You have to like that. You take a look at Michael McGreevy. Not a lot of information
09:55on him on this season. Only 65 total batters, but if you can sort of take a look at those numbers,
10:00he does do very well against right-handed batters, but doesn't do very well against left-handed
10:05batters. And that's a problem. If we look at McGreevy on the season, only 11, excuse me,
10:09the last 30 days, let's just go with that. 11 innings pitch. He's got a 4.09 ERA, which isn't
10:14a total disaster, but a much better XFIP number of 3.27. But how about this? Like if lefty is the
10:20angle you want to play tonight, maybe it's a team total for the Cubs that you might want to check
10:23into, but just RBI hunting, here's where your sense is going to come from. Ian Happ is a switch
10:28hitter. Of course, he's going to bat lefty tonight. His last 79 at bats going up against right-handed
10:32pitching, a 313 ISO and a 394 weighted on base percentage. How about Kyle Tucker? His last 64
10:38played appearances against right-handed pitchers, a 231 ISO and a 429 weighted on base percentage.
10:43He also will back from the left-hand side. Our guy, Pete Crow Armstrong, his last 69 at bats going up
10:48against right-handed pitching, a 297 ISO and a 393 weighted on base percentage. And then also
10:53another guy with a lot of power in that lineup, left-handed batter, Michael Bush. His last 69
10:58appearances against right-handed pitching, a 344 ISO and a 484 weighted on base percentage.
11:03So from a Cubs perspective, do I think there's a legitimate chance they win tonight? Of course they
11:07do. But if I'm just looking from an RBI, I'm probably looking at saying, if you take those four
11:12left-handed batters, two of those guys at least probably going to get RBI looks tonight. And that's all
11:16you can ask for. If you go over to St. Louis, red hot last night at the plate, as Ben, you pointed
11:20out four home runs yesterday. Maybe that continues today. Jamison Tyone, not a great pitcher of the
11:25season, particularly over the past 30 days, 30 innings pitched over those 30 days. He's got a
11:30decent ERA of 3.30, a slightly higher XFIP of 3.91. So I do like the Cubs perspective from pitching
11:36and hitting, but I don't know if I would lay just the money line. I would look at the RBI props from
11:40the left-handed batters tonight for the Chicago Cubs. I think that's the best way to make some money.
11:44Plus 135 DRS for PCA. Pete Crow Armstrong for Chicago, the young star already paying dividends.
11:53He became the fastest player in Cubs history to record 20 home runs in 20 stolen bases in a single
12:00season. Pete did that in 73 games. PCA has continued 21 home runs, 23 stolen bases this year, plus 440
12:10for a dinger tonight in St. Louis. Speaking of young talent, welcome Chase Burns to Major League
12:16Baseball. The Reds starter tonight making his MLB debut against the team he grew up rooting for,
12:23the New York Yankees. The second overall pick in the 2024 MLB draft out of Tennessee
12:28and Wake Forest. Chase Burns, the flamethrower, makes his debut tonight against New York. The Yanks send
12:36out Carlos Rodon, who has been great this year in pinstripes, and because of it, the New York Yankees
12:41are favored in Cincinnati at minus 166. Nine and a half is that total. Burns making his debut. Again,
12:49second pick of last summer's draft in 2024. He becomes the fifth player DRS already taken in last
12:56summer's MLB draft to make their Major League Baseball debut. Young talent quickly to the Major
13:02Leagues. That is Chase Burns tonight as well for Cincinnati. Always hard to bet, and it's hard to
13:07say, well, I'm going to fade the kid coming up. I'm going to back the kid coming up. You just like
13:10to give the young flamethrowers, right? Because there's two different prospects that come up we
13:13talk about. The guy that's looking to make his Major League debut after eight years in the minors and
13:17give him a shot because we don't want to call up the guy who just drafted two years ago. This is a
13:21different one. This kid's ready to go, which means he has electric stuff. You saw Robleski, or was it,
13:26what was it? Miserowski? Miserowski. Yeah. Miserowski, excuse me. Coming up for the Brewers. Flamethrower. Like,
13:32hey, he did really well until you get a book on him. Maybe we get this here from the young
13:35flamethrower here for the Cincinnati Reds. You saw yesterday, hey, look at that. No statistical
13:40information this season coming up on Winans yesterday, and he got torched over his four
13:45and two-thirds, whatever innings pitch he pitched yesterday. But here's the issue. You look at Rodon,
13:49good, solid pitcher here in Major League Baseball. The Reds don't hit lefties all that well. Great
13:53temperatures. Small ballpark. The ball should fly, but you still do need those pitchers here to hold up
13:59their end of the bargain. The Yankees have done very well against right-handed pitching,
14:02particularly over the last month. And no question, Aaron Judge has big-time numbers. But here's the
14:06question. How do you play this out? Because you can say, like, hey, I want to take that plus 140
14:10price here at FanDuel and the dog. But we don't know what's going to happen when the Cincinnati kid
14:14gets up there and says, all right, Chase Burns, start throwing flames at a really good hitting lineup.
14:18I lend the belief to tend to myself to say, let me just watch this one and sit this one out.
14:23It could go either direction. And there's not a lot of angles I want to play on the Reds,
14:26as opposed to, hey, this kid's a really good pitcher and he might be able to hold down the
14:29Yankees. I don't know if I want to do that. Chase Burns is an absolute flamethrower. He was
14:34first in Knoxville and then in Winston-Salem for the Demon Deacs. He has already had six pitches this
14:41year in AAA that have touched 100 plus. When he debuts tonight in the warm weather and some
14:47adrenaline, perhaps in his debut, we would expect to see at least one pitch get to 100 miles per hour.
14:53He will be the fourth rookie hurler, including Jacob Mizorowski, rookie Sasaki for the LA Dodgers
14:59and Chase Dolander for the Colorado Rockies to touch triple digits already. It is a new era of
15:05Major League Baseball. The New York Yankees DRS for most of this season had a very large lead atop
15:11the American League East. Now just two games in front of the Rays. Why? Tampa playing great baseball.
15:18They have won 12 of their last 18. They are on the road today in Kauffman against the Royals.
15:23What do you like today in Kansas City? You know, it's a shame. I like the weather. How about that
15:27to start? 90 degree temperatures, wind blowing out the left field. Love to see that. But also,
15:31you take a look at Chris Bubich on the mound. His last 23 and two-thirds innings pitched over the
15:35month at 380 ERA, which is okay, but a lower 331. The lineup, though, looks really good for
15:40Tampa Bay. Something we never used to say in the past on a day-to-day basis. Diaz,
15:44Camonero here, Morel, Caballero, Jansen, Walls, and Simpson, all really high weighted on base
15:51percentages here. I probably would lean just because I think the batting advantages are on
15:55the side here of Tampa Bay. I would take them in the game today as a slight underdog.
16:00Yeah, slight dog indeed. We go rapid fire to the rest of the slate next.
16:05A couple of more games to preview around this full slate Tuesday in Major League Baseball. So let's go
16:10rapid fire DRS. We turn our attention now to Cleveland. The Blue Jays and the Guardians
16:16facing off tonight in the land. And Toronto, an ever so slight favorite against the Guardians
16:22in Cleveland. Minus 122, that price on the Blue Jays now working in favor of Toronto,
16:27as you see with the updated numbers. Total up by a hook as well at nine. It's warm everywhere.
16:33More offense expected, perhaps, in Cleveland.
16:35Yes, and here's what I like about this too. Eric Lauer's one of those slimy pitchers over the past
16:40couple years, that lefty that doesn't really have great stuff, but somehow gets guys out. He
16:44actually has a pretty good ERA over the past 30 days. 19 innings pitch, 1.42 EXFIP of 3.78. I'm
16:50going to stay away from you. I'm going to focus on Logan Allen, the left-handed pitcher today for
16:53the Guardians. If we look at the card today, 28 total pitchers here, at least five innings pitched
16:58over the past month. He comes in at 26 of 28 pitchers, 22 innings over the past month,
17:04a .491 ERA and a .499 EXFIP number. You take a look at that lineup today for the Toronto Blue
17:09Jays. Their past month against left-handed pitching, it's been spectacular. Springer has
17:14struggled. Myles Straw has struggled. And Klasse, everybody else, so you're looking at six of the
17:19nine batters with elevated numbers. But here's what I like even better. You take a look at a
17:23pitcher like Logan Allen. On the season, 294 batters he's faced, Ben. How about this? Only a strikeout
17:29rate of 17%. If you fast forward that to this month here, it drops to 16% over the past 30 days.
17:35Okay, he's not striking guys out, which means the ball won't play. Well, how do the Toronto Blue Jays
17:39here line up against a pitcher who doesn't strike anybody out? What happens if I told you Davis
17:43Schneider's at 23.8%, which isn't terrible. He's the highest. Everybody else is a green light in that
17:49lineup to put the ball in play. That's usually how good things happen. So you might want to say to
17:54yourself, well, can Toronto win this game? Yes. And maybe there could be a slight favorite here at the
17:58minus 110 price. I look at the eight and a half and say, I don't know if I want to go with that
18:01because it's maddening sometimes taking the Guardians with that offense that should be so
18:05much better. I look at the Toronto Blue Jays knowing 87 degree temperatures. You're going to
18:09minimum get nine at bats automatically because you're the away team. Why not take a team total
18:13on the Toronto Blue Jays here to take a look at? And also maybe with a focus of, even though he's a
18:18left-handed pitcher, he does struggle with both lefties and righties here. Looks like a good
18:22matchup for Toronto to get some base knocks tonight. The Jays five games above 500, 41 and
18:2836. Now just three and a half back of New York for that top spot in the American League East. The
18:33Red Sox were a few games above 500 entering the weekend as well. They had finally done it. They
18:39had gotten above 500. They've dropped three straight in California. They're now 40 and 40, including the
18:45opener last night in Anaheim against the Halos getting beat nine to five. But tonight DRS, a pretty
18:51hefty favorite in Anaheim against the Angels with Garrett Crochet on the mound. Boston minus
18:56176. The updated price, not quite as steep as that number there, but still a strong favorite. Total
19:03is eight. Is the price justified on the Red Sox sending out Garrett Crochet?
19:08It is justified. It's one of those where I take a look at the first five innings ago, maybe a run
19:12line first five innings with Garrett Crochet and the Boston Red Sox. I'm going to tell you why.
19:15You look at Crochet, 34 innings pitched over his last month, a 265 ERA, which is fantastic. But that
19:21was the XFIP. Goes down from a 265 ERA to a 2.10. He's been nothing short of filthy. And then there's
19:27Mr. Anderson on the opposite side, which I always joke with Tom Vecchio on Pro Base, but I'll tell you
19:31on Sundays, how come every pitcher stinks for the Angels and is horrendous with XFIP numbers? No
19:36surprise with Anderson. He struggles with lefty batters, righty batters, doesn't strike anybody out. So
19:40tonight, Reschneider, Gonzalez, and Narvaez, along with Raffaella, will be on my card. But I just figure
19:45this game has all the likings of like three to one at the end of five innings here in the favor
19:50here of the Boston Red Sox. And I want to tempt fate with maybe a bullpen. You should get a good
19:55pitching matchup. Crochet is the much better pitcher. You just have to eke out some runs
19:58here for the Boston Red Sox. Run line first five innings. Boston takes care of business tonight.
20:03It's a heavy favorite. Not exactly getting a discount on that run line, laying the hook in terms of where
20:09that stands at minus 144, but a better price, of course, in the game overall. How about Tarek
20:14Scooble out there tonight for Detroit? He has been sensational. The Tigers have won eight of his
20:20last nine starts. He is eight and two this year. Of course, our reigning AL Cy Young winner with a
20:25206 ERA and the expected Cy Young winner in the American League once again. You thought that might
20:31be a steep price on the Sox? Minus 290 has evaporated DRS against the A's. It's minus 320. And
20:38Luis Severino is on the other side for the Athletics. Minus 320 on the Tigers. How do you
20:44approach the game? You're probably getting value on that, too. You take a look at Tarek
20:48Scooble on the mound. A .74 ERA over the past month here. You take a look at the ERA for
20:53Severino over the past month. It's a five. You take a look at the XFIP numbers. Scooble,
20:572.82. Very good. Severino, dead last on the card at 5.12. This is a massive mismatch here.
21:0388 degree temperatures, wind blowing out. Hello, Detroit lineup on a pitcher that doesn't
21:09strike out a lot of guys. We might get some yard work from Detroit, but that price is justified.
21:14This is a mismatch. Four and a half the team total for the Tigers. Two and a half the team total
21:21for the A's are the ways to slice it. Brian Fonseca joins us next.
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