- 6/23/2025
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00:00After a full weekend around Major League Baseball on this very hot and humid Monday, I think all around the states, but certainly here in the Northeast, we've got a nine game slate to start off a new week on a Monday in MLB DRS.
00:16We start with a central focus tonight under the arch in St. Louis between two divisional foes in the National League Central.
00:23The Cubbies did not win the weekend at home against the Seattle Mariners, but still hold a three and a half game lead in the division over the Milwaukee Brewers, who are the only team to pull off a sweep this weekend, four and a half in front still of the Redbirds, who have not quite been as red hot as they were to start off this season.
00:43But today, under the arch, Donnie's favorite MLB pitcher, the Big Lib, Matthew Libertor, gets the start for St. Louis on the other side for the Cubs.
00:53It's Ben Brown, right? Ben Brown for Chicago? That's their starter? Yeah, just making sure of that.
00:58Nearly a pick-em price tonight, DRS, in the loo. Minus 110 for the Cardinals.
01:03Now the updated numbers on FanDuel. Minus 106 on the other side. Total still stands at nine.
01:09How does this series in St. Louis start on a Monday evening?
01:13Yeah, yesterday, afternoon temperatures, they're soaring into the 90s.
01:16This game's estimated they're going to start at 745, and how about still 90 degrees at first pitch for this one?
01:20So you love to see that hitting environment, eight to nine mile an hour winds blowing out to left heel.
01:24That's fantastic stuff. Take a look at these two pitchers here, because it is interesting.
01:27If we have 17 pitchers on the card today with a minimum of five innings pitched over the last 30 days,
01:32XFIP-wise, Ben Brown's at 3.84, which isn't terrible.
01:35His ERA, though, 5.79. You take a look at Matthew Libertor, 6.33 ERA, which, again, is very elevated.
01:434.23 XFIP number, which is lower.
01:46So, namely, these pitchers getting just a little bit unlucky so far on the season.
01:50The one issue with Ben Brown over the past 30 days, he can't get out left-handed batters
01:53to the tune of a .357 weighted on base percentage and a .188 ISO power number.
01:58Lefties in the lineup tonight that could do damage.
02:00Brendan Donovan has got a .322 weighted on base percentage going up against right-handed pitching over the past month.
02:05Alec Burleson, a .368 weighted on base percentage.
02:08And then Nolan Gorman might be the best hitter in the lineup right now based on his last 30-day statistics versus right-handed pitchers.
02:14He's a .262 ISO power number and a .430 weighted on base percentage.
02:18If we flip it over to the other side, again, take a look at Libertor.
02:21Difference here is he's been very good against left-handed batters because he is a left-handed pitcher.
02:26But also understand this, you take a look at the right side here, they've been pounding him here.
02:31A .242 ISO power number and a weighted on base percentage of .389 against.
02:35If you're just looking to say these two pitchers with high ERAs and I'm just going to take that hitting environment,
02:40we probably should be getting a total in this one.
02:42We really should.
02:44Yeah, nine is that total.
02:46DRS, this is a rivalry, of course, within the National League Central.
02:49Neither fan base in St. Louis nor on the north side of Chicago really cares for the other team.
02:54The first meeting this year between these two divisional foes and rivals starting a four-game set this week under the arch in the loo.
03:03I said the Redbirds not quite nearly as red-hot as they were to start off the year.
03:08They started June DRS just 3-9.
03:10They have won six of their last eight, nearly pulled off the sweep against the Reds this weekend.
03:16The Cubbies, pretty mediocre.
03:18.500, in fact, in their last ten games, 5-5.
03:22Again, a nine-game slate on this Monday, including a return to the Citi Field for the New York Mets,
03:28who were swept by the Braves during the midweek this past week, Tuesday through Thursday.
03:34And despite being at home and the Mets have not been playing great baseball,
03:38they snapped that seven-game slide against the Phillies on Saturday but did drop the finale to lose the weekend in Philadelphia.
03:44The Mets are a home dog today against Spencer Schwellenbach and the Atlanta Braves.
03:49Minus 136, that updated price in favor of the Braves on the road tonight in Queens.
03:54Eight-and-a-half is that total.
03:56Add it once again, these two divisional foes.
03:59How does this game on Monday play out?
04:02Could the Braves' dominance continue here over the New York Mets?
04:04Maybe so.
04:05The best pitcher on the card today is Spencer Schwellenbach.
04:07His last five starts over the past month accumulated 35-and-a-third innings pitched.
04:11How about an ERA of 2.80?
04:13Very rare that you see a 2.80 and have an even less XFIP, which is 2.02.
04:18The last 136 batters that Spencer Schwellenbach has faced.
04:22A 162 ISO, which is about average, but that weighted-on-base percentage at 271 and a strikeout rate of close to 32% really helps out.
04:29Now, the one thing you have to like if you are the Mets tonight, well, you're playing in Citi Field.
04:32It is a pitcher's ballpark, but 85 degrees at first temperature and an eight-mile-an-hour wind blowing up to left center field.
04:38That's good for the hitters.
04:39The first six batters in the lineup over the past month against right-handed pitching for the Mets have all excelled.
04:44That's Lindor, Nimmo, Soto, Alonzo, McNeil, and also Jared Young.
04:48High ISO power numbers.
04:50But here's the issue.
04:51On the other side, it's Paul Blackburn.
04:52These are the pitchers that we look at and say, like, you have nothing left in your minor league system to have Paul Blackburn with another start here.
04:58You look at his past couple weeks here, only 13 innings pitched, close to a 7 ERA.
05:03Now, the XFIP number is a little bit lower, but still dangerously high at 4.69.
05:08Now, you look at Ozuna, Albies, Verdugo, Murphy, Harrison, Allen.
05:11Those guys really haven't shown up much at all against right-handed pitching over the past month, which is up to the first three guys, Acuna, Olsa, and Riley, to do the damage.
05:18But once again, looking at Blackburn, he's only had 60 batters that he's faced in Major League Baseball this season.
05:23What about a K percentage of only 13%?
05:26An ISO against, if we include lefty and righty batters, at 200, and a weighted on-base percentage of 383.
05:31If you just focus on the right-handed batters, which presumably will be the majority of the lineup tonight for the Atlanta Braves,
05:37a 292 ISO against, and a 415 weighted on-base percentage.
05:42It's one thing that I look at and say the Mets lineup is better, 1 through 9, but I'm not backing Paul Blackburn in this game.
05:47You've got to be kidding me.
05:48I think the Braves win it again.
05:49DRS, the Mets, are hoping to stop this regression.
05:52A once-proud organization in the month of June, trying to find their way back.
05:57They now trail Philadelphia, losing the weekend by a full game in the National League East.
06:02Our final game of 9 tonight on this Monday out in San Diego in Southern California.
06:07The Padres scored a series against the Washington Nationals.
06:11Now, the Padres got off to a great start this year, but they have cooled off ever so slightly.
06:15Still well above .500, but they've dropped seven of their last 11.
06:19A home favorite tonight, minus .172.
06:22Now that updated number.
06:23What do the Padres do inside Petco against the Nationals?
06:27Look, you've got to look at the Nationals.
06:28Like, playing games where they're scoring runs in high-scoring environments.
06:31You even got one yesterday.
06:32They even played at a lot of runs on Saturday.
06:34But if you look at Mitchell Parker on the mound, he's a left-handed pitcher.
06:37Average at best.
06:38If you could just be kind here.
06:39You take a look at a 5 ERA over the past 30 days.
06:41But he does have a slightly lower XFIP of 3.91.
06:44But here's where it'll get you in trouble.
06:46You look at the lineup tonight.
06:47Louie Arise, left-handed batter.
06:48Jackson Merrill, left-handed batter.
06:49Sheets, left-handed batter.
06:50And Cronin, left-handed batter.
06:51Why does that help out?
06:52Well, that's where Mitchell Parker is good.
06:54Against right-handed batters, he's been devastatingly bad over the past 30 days.
06:58So if you just line up these right-handed bats, which aren't that good for the Padres,
07:02we're sort of bending the rules on what we like to look and bet.
07:04It seems like they're going to get, at least in the mix for a team total.
07:07And Kulik on the other side, a super high XFIP number with a lineup that's hitting the baseball.
07:11Even though it is a pitcher's ballpark in San Diego, this game should go over at West.
07:15It really should.
07:16Six more games to preview around the Bigs.
07:19We'll do all of that next.
07:21We've got nine games on this Monday around Major League Baseball.
07:24We previewed three in our first segment,
07:26breaking down from the brilliant baseball mind of one Donnie Wright.
07:29We've got three in this segment and three to come in our next segment on the other side of the break.
07:34That would be a preview of all nine games.
07:37Let's head out to Cincinnati, DRS.
07:39For today, the Yankees headed to the Great American Ballpark to take on the Reds.
07:43And the Pinstripes, of course, a road favorite.
07:46But maybe you're looking at the pitching matchup and you're like,
07:48who's Winans for the Yankees?
07:50Alan Winans to start today for the Yanks.
07:53His first start in a Yankees uniform this year, 7-0 with a .90 ERA.
08:00And AAA this season did start eight games over the previous two years,
08:04but in that Braves organization with Atlanta.
08:08Alan Winans and his Yanks, a road favorite today in Cincinnati.
08:11What do you like?
08:13Yeah, it's interesting, too, right?
08:14Because you've got that AAA pitcher coming up.
08:16He's had a lot of success here.
08:17Maybe that carries over.
08:1888-degree temperatures here in a small ballpark in Cincinnati, which you love to see.
08:22Wind's only blowing at three miles per hour, slightly out to left field.
08:25So it should be great hitting conditions for this one.
08:27Nick Lodolo, if we take a look at his statistics here,
08:30and we have him coming in ninth out of 17 pitchers on the card today with XFIP of a 4.04.
08:35Not terrible at that point.
08:37ERA is about a 4.78.
08:39That's through 26 and a third innings pitched here.
08:42Lodolo is a left-handed pitcher over the last 30 days, though,
08:45has struggled a little bit with right-handed batters.
08:47211 ISO power number weighted on base percentage of 350,
08:50but a decent K rate of around 25%.
08:52If you look at the lineup today for the Yankees
08:54and how it presents itself over the past month against left-handed starters,
08:58Paul Goldschmidt, very good.
08:59Bellinger average, judge, very good.
09:01Chisholm with a high weighted on base percentage.
09:03Volpe, decent weights on base percentage.
09:05Dominguez and also Austin Wells and DJ LeMahieu.
09:07So really, if you're looking at this lineup, the only guy,
09:10and it's only four at-bats, that's the left-handed, right-handed batter.
09:12Excuse me, excuse me, jeez.
09:14The DH in Carlos Stanton here at only four at-bats, he struggled.
09:19Everybody else, though, eight-plus batters with weighted on base percentage
09:23going up against Lodolo.
09:25It's hard, though.
09:25Like, the favorite on the road is the Yankees.
09:28I don't know what I'm getting out of that picture.
09:29That's the only thing that sort of, like, holds me back a little bit.
09:32But the Yankees should be able to put enough good-bats together here
09:35to score four to five runs in this game.
09:37Yeah, maybe so.
09:38We'll see how they do in Cincinnati against Lodolo.
09:41The Reds, for me, my Cincinnati Reds, 40 and 38,
09:45nearly at the halfway mark of their MLB season,
09:48and halfway to cashing a ticket for me.
09:50I need 80 wins out of the Reds.
09:53They are halfway there, basically on track with about, what,
09:57they've got 78, 78 minus one, once you do minus 78,
10:00there'll be 84 more games to go for Cincinnati,
10:04who did snap a three-game losing skid,
10:06avoiding a sweep against St. Louis yesterday in their weekend set.
10:10They had won nine of the previous 11 before that.
10:14The Mariners won the weekend at Wrigley.
10:16The only team swept over the weekend,
10:18that would be the Minnesota Twins,
10:20who have not been looking good, DRS, as of late.
10:23They have dropped nine of their last ten.
10:25The Twins back at home in the Twin Cities,
10:28hosting the Mariners.
10:29Can Big Dump keep it going?
10:31Four home runs in three games in Chicago this weekend.
10:35Seattle, a road favorite, minus 122.
10:37Of course, Big Dumper is Cal Raleigh.
10:39Eight and a half the total today in Minneapolis.
10:42What's the play?
10:42Sure, probably a big dumper to go yard again.
10:45I mean, why not?
10:4679-degree temperatures tonight in Minnesota
10:48with the wind blowing out to right field.
10:50That means Cal Raleigh, who is a switch hitter,
10:51will be batting from the left side,
10:52the wind helping him,
10:54and also his last 69 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
10:57How about a 460 ISO when a weighted on-base percentage of 449?
11:01And if you're just going to blind here,
11:02Bailey Ober is the worst pitcher on the Major League Baseball card today.
11:06A 6'11 ERA.
11:09And how about this?
11:10A 5.62 XFIP number.
11:11You take a look at Bailey Ober's last 127 batters.
11:15Equal opportunity.
11:17Both sides of the plate smashing him to a 278 ISO
11:20and a weighted on-base percentage of 392.
11:23So low K rate, hard contact rate, good hitting conditions in a pitcher's ballpark.
11:28We should be able to get runs there.
11:29But let's go to the other side.
11:30Brian Wu was on the mound.
11:31You take a look at him.
11:3231 and two-thirds innings pitched here.
11:34A 4 ERA and a 4 XFIP number.
11:36But you got a good-looking lineup here today for the Minnesota Twins with a lot of plus bats.
11:41You have seven out of the nine batters estimated here,
11:44plus weighted on-base percentages against right-handed pitching.
11:46And if you just wanted to pick out one side of the plate,
11:48Wu struggles with lefties here.
11:50Lefties like Mitch Wallner.
11:51Take a look at Trevor Larnock in this equation.
11:53Brooks Lee's a switcher.
11:54He'll be from the left side.
11:54And also Cody Clemens sporting a 245 ISO power number for his last month going up against right-handed pitching.
12:01Hey, look at this, man.
12:02Maybe it isn't overnight tonight, just fading some of these pitchers in some good hitting environments.
12:06Eight and a half that total.
12:08The Twins trying to turn things around.
12:09They're now three games sub 500, 37 and 40.
12:13Seattle trying to catch the Houston Astros, who have been great in the month of June,
12:17now leading the American League West by, let me get the check here,
12:20five games over the M's at this moment.
12:25DRS, I said we would preview three games in this segment.
12:28We came up a little bit short, but we've got a long segment on the other side
12:31for the final four games on this MLB Monday, including the Boston Red Sox,
12:37who go from Northern California to Anaheim next.
12:42So the Red Sox lost their last two games of their weekend series against the San Francisco Giants.
12:47A lot of eyeballs, attention, and notoriety on that set up in San Francisco.
12:52Why?
12:52Raphael Devers, who was dealt in the blockbuster deal eight days ago,
12:56playing his former team almost immediately in the week after that head-scratching trade,
13:02depending on what side you support.
13:05One of the reasons, DRS, it was so crazy.
13:07Boston's starting to play better baseball.
13:09They lost the final two games against the Giants,
13:11but before those last two on Saturday and Sunday,
13:14the Red Sox had won 10 of their last 12.
13:17They're above .500 finally once again, trying to continue those winning ways.
13:22Now in Southern California in Anaheim against the Halos.
13:26Walker Buehler back in a city he knows well, not quite Anaheim,
13:29but of course started his career with the Dodgers in Los Angeles.
13:33So at least Southern California and Buehler and Boston, a slight road favorite tonight.
13:37Minus 118 is that number.
13:40Total is nine out against the Angels.
13:43What's the play on this Monday between the Halos and the Sox?
13:47Yeah, out there.
13:48Decent temperatures, high 60s.
13:50That L.A. weather at night should be decent.
13:51Wind blowing out the center field as it usually does in Anaheim.
13:54But Walker Buehler pitching more like Ferris Buehler, Ben.
13:56How do you like that as of late?
13:58I mean, the guy's been terrible.
13:5923 innings pitched here.
14:01How about a nine ERA and a 475 XFIP number?
14:05Left-handed batters, 215 ISO.
14:07Right-handed batters, 371 ISO against.
14:10Now, granted, you take a look at the Angels lineup today over the last 30 days.
14:13They haven't hit all that well against right-handed pitching.
14:15Mike Trout's got some pretty good numbers here.
14:17Joe Adele's got some good numbers here.
14:18But everybody else, really pedestrian.
14:20But sometimes it just takes a bad pitcher to come to town and sort of right that ship
14:23and say, okay, let's start to hit some of these home runs and get some of these deep fly balls.
14:27Because again, Walker Buehler certainly hasn't been that good.
14:30And the pitcher that they were hoping for that they will be getting in Boston.
14:33Jack O'Honowitz, he's an interesting one to me.
14:35You take a look at him.
14:36Guys, I love to fade for a couple of starts because his XFIP numbers were outrageously high.
14:41But look at this.
14:42A 6.17 ERA.
14:44But I have him ranked as the third best pitcher on the card today because his XFIP number
14:47has shrunk to 3.84 over the past 30 days.
14:51Now, here's the interesting part.
14:52You take a look at some of these ISO power numbers that are ultra high.
14:55Duran, Anthony, Toro, Abreu, Story, Mayer, and also Raffaella.
15:00All of those guys here saying, you know what, they've hit right-handed pitching extremely well
15:05over the past 30 days.
15:06So once again, I look at this and say, okay, Walker Buehler is bad against a bad lineup.
15:09Well, by theory, hopefully LA can scratch out a few runs.
15:13You take a look at the lineup for Boston.
15:14They should be able to hit at Kochanowitz.
15:15But he has really improved those XFIP numbers, increasing his strikeouts here from the season
15:20to the last 30 days.
15:21But for me again, why don't we lean on the over?
15:23Like, I just don't, I don't see the power pitchers on the card.
15:26Like, Trollenbach's the best.
15:27Everybody else seems like it's up for grabs.
15:29And if you have good hitting environments with decent weather, why not go to the overs
15:33on those?
15:34We've got some pretty good hitting environments on this Monday for sure, DRS, as we trend
15:39to the end of June.
15:40Maybe some offense around the bigs.
15:43The hottest team right now, the only team that pulled off a sweep over the weekend, that's
15:47the Milwaukee Brewers.
15:48They won four consecutive games.
15:50And DRS were a few games below .500 on May 25th, 25 and 28.
15:56They have won 18 of their next 25.
15:59Can the Brew Crew continue this win streak, making it five in a row at home tonight in
16:04Milwaukee against the Pirates?
16:05The odds makers expect it.
16:07Minus 180 is that money line number now on FanDuel.
16:10The over-under at eight and a half.
16:12So not as strong of a favorite as earlier this morning, but still a pretty strong favorite
16:17on that money line price.
16:18Will Milwaukee make it five straight wins tonight at home?
16:22Ashcraft has pretty good numbers.
16:23But once again, keep in mind, it's only been 11 innings that he's pitched on this season
16:27so far.
16:27And here's the interesting part, too.
16:28Like Milwaukee, we know is the retractable dome.
16:31Maybe a little bit of rain chance in the forecast.
16:33I hope the roof is open.
16:34Why?
16:35It's 88 degrees tonight in Milwaukee.
16:37It's one of those days you'd like to capture.
16:38Get that heat and humidity in the ballpark, certainly to try to heat up those bats.
16:41It's hard to judge, again, Axcraft, because you look at his ISO against only a 116, weighted
16:46on base percentage, 278.
16:48Not a huge strikeout guy, but not a huge track record that we can go off of here.
16:52You take a look at that Brewers lineup.
16:53Some good batters in here against right into pitching over the past month.
16:56Freilich's got good numbers here.
16:57Churio, Christian Yellich.
16:58Take a look at Collins as well as Durbin.
17:00But on the other side for Pittsburgh, sometimes you get what you get.
17:03Like yesterday, my sneaky sell me something was the team total over four and a half runs for
17:07Pittsburgh at a plus money price because the pitcher was bad, but the lineup really stinks.
17:11They really came to play yesterday, scoring north of seven runs, easily hitting that place
17:15room.
17:15But Chad Patrick, number two on the card today with XFIP of only a 3.64.
17:19So I do think it's a great spot here for the Milwaukee Brewers with a pitcher going up
17:23against a bad lineup, even though it had some success yesterday.
17:25I think they go back to being a bad lineup today, and I'd give that nod once again to the
17:29Brewers.
17:30But it's not as if I'm saying anything generational here.
17:33They're a minus 196 favorite.
17:34They should win this.
17:35So you're telling me, DRS, you guys do sell me something on pro baseball today as well?
17:42Exactly.
17:43Sell me something.
17:43Give me like a thing that the people should be looking at that maybe you have to sell yourself
17:47on.
17:47It's really designed to lose, but I did win yesterday.
17:50So there you go.
17:51Sold me, baby.
17:52I just meant more so the segment has been incorporated on other shows.
17:56It's like doing a big six on PBT.
17:59But you know, hey, listen, if I go back to the well, you never know, DRS.
18:04All right.
18:05Tonight in Baltimore, two teams in the American League and everybody in the preseason expected
18:09to potentially contend around the AL for a pennant.
18:13The Rangers and the Orioles, who have both been, frankly, disappointing this year.
18:17Baltimore much more than Texas.
18:19Texas just a few games below 538 and 40.
18:23Can the offense pick it up?
18:25The Orioles have flat out stunk.
18:27There are 11 games sub 533 and 44.
18:30Baltimore, a slight home favorite tonight in Camden Yards, minus 130.
18:34That price totaled nine and a half.
18:37Well, we see some offense in the Charm City as well.
18:40Like the lineups don't really match up to the nine and a half.
18:43But again, sometimes you throw that out.
18:45First pitch in Baltimore tonight, 95 degrees.
18:48Yeah, that game's going to start at six o'clock, 635.
18:51It's 95 degrees.
18:52That's how hot it is.
18:53And that's a hitter's ballpark here.
18:55So it's one where you say, okay, well, Patrick Corbin on the season, he's been okay.
18:58Let's just take a look at the last 30 days on Corbin.
19:0028 and two-thirds innings pitched a 440 ERA.
19:03Not a total disaster.
19:05And an XFIP number, that's not a disaster, at 4.03.
19:08There are some decent batters in the lineup here for Baltimore.
19:10But you take a look at lefties is where Corbin does really well.
19:13Lefty is Holiday.
19:14Lefty is Henderson.
19:15Lefty is Kalser.
19:16So you got three of those hitters right off the bat that you're looking to have that power surge
19:20that might not be there.
19:21But right-handed batters get the best here of Patrick Corbin.
19:23But again, looking at the situation from the lineup, I don't like it that much.
19:27Look at Texas.
19:28It's just like, hey, every year, every day, it was like the last two years.
19:31Like, hey, man, Corey Seager has got to be on your card.
19:33He stinks every day.
19:34Like, I haven't had Corey Seager on my card for basically the entire season.
19:38Roger's not a great pitcher, but limited innings here.
19:40It's one of those that you take a look at.
19:42And Tom and I talked yesterday.
19:43The weather is so crazy.
19:45Just by default, you can't take an under.
19:47Like, I know the price is pumped up, probably an extra run because of the temperature.
19:51But who's taking unders in 95 degrees?
19:53Like, just get a hold of one.
19:55It's leaving the yard.
19:56The Rangers have been great at limiting the opposition this year.
20:00They have only allowed, as a team, 266 total runs.
20:04That is the fewest in all of Major League Baseball.
20:07If they've been that good, then they should be above 500, right?
20:10Wrong.
20:10They're 38 and 40.
20:12Why?
20:12They've only scored 282 runs.
20:16So, Donnie is correct.
20:17The offense should maybe not be there on paper tonight at Camden Yards.
20:22But it's going to be so hot in Baltimore, that ball should fly off the bat.
20:27Let's go to the south side of Chicago.
20:29The White Sox and their opening day starter, Sean Smith.
20:32No, no, it wasn't Sean Smith.
20:33It was Sean Burke.
20:34I believe it was.
20:35Anyway, the White Sox at home hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks.
20:39Is the D-Bats a road favorite tonight against the White Sox?
20:43Over, under is nine.
20:45I yelled go Sox at the Vatican about a week ago.
20:49What happens tonight for the White Sox?
20:52Now, the one thing that we didn't see is too many people running around in Nebraska hats in Rome.
20:55I thought that was definitely going to happen here with people yelling out that,
20:58hey, Nebraska looks good this year.
20:59They love the spring game at this point.
21:01But by the way, again, Ben, 90-degree temperatures in the Windy City.
21:04More of a crosswind, though, from right foul pole to left foul pole.
21:06But you look at the Arizona batters.
21:08We had the B-team out there yesterday who I needed three runs from.
21:11Had two runs by the end of the fourth.
21:13And finished with two runs in Colorado in 95-degree temperatures.
21:16I'm angry, but they should hit tonight going up against Shane Smith.
21:18And then the other side, Chicago.
21:20This might be the best-looking presentation of a lineup that we've seen for the Chicago White Sox all season long.
21:26What if I told you seven of nine batters are plus over the past 30 days against left-handed pitchers?
21:30Which Rodriguez is a decent pitcher, has a decent number for the past 30 days at about a 2.81 ERA.
21:36But that X-flip, close to five here.
21:38Maybe sneaky Chicago White Sox team total today.
21:41Looks good.
21:42They look good.
21:43Just telling you.
21:4425-53 DRS.
21:47That is the record for Chicago through 78 games.
21:51I'm trying to do it very quickly here.
21:53They were 21-57 a year ago in a historically bad season.
21:59What's that great in Chicago?
22:01Tom Becchio here next.
22:02A nine-game Major League Baseball slate on this Monday.
22:05My co-host on the early line is one of the two co-hosts, of course, of pro baseball today.
22:10That's Donnie Wrightside.
22:11Joined by the other for this final segment to look around all nine games on the Major League Baseball diamond.
22:16That would be TV Tom Becchio.
22:19So, Becchio, let's spin around the diamond.
22:21NBA season came to a close last night.
22:23No WNBA games on this Monday.
22:26We are completely done with the collegiate athletic slate in the 2024-25 academic year
22:32as it came to a close at the College World Series in Omaha on a Sunday afternoon.
22:36So, what does that mean?
22:38Baseball, baby.
22:39Nine games on this Monday.
22:41Becchio, very warm outside, basically across the entire country here to end out June.
22:47That could lead to some good hitting environments.
22:49That could lead to some offense.
22:51Might it lead to some overs?
22:53If you were to pick a game where you think we see some runs, what do you highlight first and foremost?
22:58Yeah, it is boiling hot.
23:00Donnie and I talked about this extensively yesterday.
23:02Basically, every game yesterday was extremely hot.
23:04And that's what we're going to see for the next few days.
23:06Let's start off with the Texas Rangers visiting Baltimore Orioles.
23:10Like, we are seeing the temperature push towards 100.
23:12Now, there's not going to be a ton of wind, but when we see warm hitting weather like this,
23:16it just screams over, over, over.
23:18So, I like over 9.5 for this game.
23:20It is juiced a little bit at minus 120.
23:23We'll certainly be starting there.
23:24The combination of Trevor Rogers and Patrick Corbin, like, these are two veteran pitchers,
23:29and they're both simply terrible.
23:31So, when we see fly ball rates, low strikeout rates from pitchers,
23:36it's like we are working with a recipe for disaster, if you're talking about it from the pitching perspective.
23:40But this is, like, the juice that we want when it comes to the hitting and prop perspective.
23:44So, I do like the over.
23:45I also want to turn to Gunnar Henderson from the Orioles for a home run.
23:48He's sitting at plus 400.
23:49I understand it's a lefty-lefty matchup to start with Corbin versus Gunnar Henderson.
23:54But Corbin still allows 1.4 home runs per nine to lefties.
23:57The fly ball rate's up at 35%.
23:59And I'm also not expecting Corbin to stay in there for a super long time.
24:02So, eventually, we will see Gunnar Henderson facing some righties.
24:05Also, I'm making a play at the number.
24:06If you're going to hang a 4-1 number on a player like Gunnar Henderson in this type of hitting environment, I'll take it.
24:13Yeah, I love it, Becchio.
24:14And listen, Tom has done many things now, of course, working for SportsGrid as well.
24:19But, originally, he was the home run prop king first and foremost.
24:23So, when he finds those good numbers on a Monday, that 4-1 price on Gunnar makes a lot of sense.
24:30And the Rangers need to—what? Go ahead.
24:32I just want to say, yesterday, Donnie and I, we had six home run picks.
24:35We hit three of them.
24:36He hit one—I please—Mickey Moniak, it was 425 or 475.
24:40Cal Raleigh was like plus 136.
24:42I hit no one's shadow well at plus 800.
24:44So, we got the juice right now.
24:46Yeah, you certainly do, Becchio.
24:48And one of my favorite Donnie right-side caps is what I'll discuss in just a moment.
24:52The Rangers, by the way, most unders this year.
24:55Highest under percentage in the bigs.
24:57The only team at more than 60—at more than 66% of their games.
25:01That's been the story for Texas.
25:04They have only allowed 266 runs as a team.
25:08The fewest in the bigs.
25:10They just can't really hit.
25:11Got to start taking advantage of those hitting environments.
25:13That was going to be my next question, Becchio.
25:15What about big dumper today?
25:16Cal Raleigh, MLB best, 31 home runs, four over the weekend in Chicago.
25:21And my favorite Donnie right-side cap, how is this guy not going to do this?
25:26Seeing Cal Raleigh in a plus 185 price yesterday, he did, in fact, go yard.
25:32Today, the price for Cal Raleigh, plus 172.
25:36Is that too short of a number to bet on MLB's home run leader at the moment?
25:41I don't bet that.
25:43I understand that there will always be people that bet Cal Raleigh or Judge yesterday, I believe, is plus 167, which I think is an insane number, where there are times we are getting three-plus total bases or two RBIs for Judge Cal Raleigh-esque player at a plus 150 price, plus 175.
25:58So, home runs are crazy to bet at that low over number.
26:02I wouldn't do that.
26:03I understand there are people that would.
26:04I would simply say, why not just ladder him up on the HRR market and go in for four plus five plus HRR, which you can do on some books.
26:11We get a much better number rather than just a solo home run, whatever it might be.
26:16Cal Raleigh today is going against Bailey Ober.
26:17I don't think he's a very good pitcher.
26:19I think he's due for some serious regression.
26:20I don't like his underlying metrics.
26:22We had nice hitting weather out in Minnesota, some wind blowing out.
26:25It is the spot for Cal Raleigh.
26:26Basically three months, Vecchio, into this MLB season.
26:30Quickly here, let's update those World Series prices.
26:33The Dodgers still a short favorite, second-best record now around the bigs, only behind the Tigers, who have the third-best price.
26:39The Yankees sandwiched in between at 6-1.
26:42If you were right here right now near the end of June to betting a team to win a World Series, where's the value on the board?
26:48I like the Cubs because if the Cubs were to get there, you know, we're lopping off three options ahead of them, the Dodgers, the Phillies, and the Mets.
26:55So, if the Cubs go out and make a move, they're getting Iminaga back, I believe, this week or next week.
26:59Get another pitcher out there.
27:00That is some really nice value at 13-1.
27:03The offense is there for the Cubbies, there is no doubt, but losing Justin Steele, Shura Iminaga on his way back.
27:09They need more arms in that starting staff in Wrigley.
27:12What questions did you guys say?
27:30Okay.
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