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00:00A full Wednesday slate around Major League Baseball from your brilliant baseball mind.
00:06Why?
00:07You like baseball?
00:08By the way, let me ask you a question.
00:10Hold on, let me ask you a question because I'm stuck on Bryson DeChambeau.
00:13Went to his wiki page.
00:15It says one of his nicknames is The Bison.
00:17Stop.
00:18Have you ever heard somebody refer to Bryson DeChambeau as The Bison?
00:23That's on his wiki page, man.
00:25Would he add that himself?
00:26That's like I have to stay up there.
00:27The Bison.
00:28That's my name for the guy now.
00:29Come on.
00:30My goodness.
00:31It is just simply not The Bison.
00:33He's never been called The Bison ever in his life.
00:36The scientist, sure, EBITDA, as he likes to say, but The Bison, never.
00:42I thought you said, oh, man.
00:44No, not a chance.
00:46Because we got to break down the Philadelphia Phillies in their day baseball matchup at the bank against the Chicago Cubs.
00:54Jesus Lozardo, DRS, was sensational to start the year, but kind of indicative of how the Phillies are playing as of late.
01:01Yesterday, losing 8-4 against the Cubbies.
01:04Ian Happ, a multi-home run game.
01:06The Phillies have dropped 10 of their last 12.
01:09And Lozardo has been struggling in his last few outings.
01:14Philadelphia, an ever-so-slight favorite.
01:16Today with some afternoon baseball in the city of brotherly love.
01:19What do you expect here between the Cubbies and the Phillies?
01:23I'll tell you what's crazy.
01:24Even if we just date back 30 days, which includes, obviously, Lozardo's past couple starts.
01:28He's got 25 and two-thirds innings pitched.
01:29He's actually sixth on the card today out of 29 pitchers over the past month with five innings pitched here that are on the card today.
01:37How about Ben Brown?
01:38He's number three on the card.
01:39So you got two top six pitchers on the card, Ben.
01:41But how about the ERAs of both of them?
01:43Ben Brown's last 30 days, 5.93.
01:45Jesus Lozardo's last 30 days, 8.77.
01:49But the XFIPs are still low because of the strikeout rates here.
01:53Something has to give.
01:5582 degrees in Philadelphia this afternoon.
01:57We're probably getting it over again.
01:59I got to tell you.
02:00We'll break down more baseball up next on The Early Line.
02:06Live right here on this Wednesday on The Early Line on SportsGrade.
02:10And a full baseball slate to break down for you all 30 clubs in action, 15 games dot the docket, and a ton of afternoon baseball.
02:19DRS, just to drive home your point on Jesus Lozardo as of late, a great note from our producer extraordinaire, Joe Friso.
02:27First 11 starts in his debut year in Philadelphia, 16 total earned runs allowed, three home runs given up, 67 innings of work.
02:37In his last two outings, 20 earned runs, four more earned runs allowed in his last two starts than in his opening 11, three total home runs in five and two thirds.
02:51It's hot today at the bank.
02:53It's hot here on the East Coast.
02:55That total in the rubber match between the Cubs and the Phils is at eight and a half.
03:01Some afternoon baseball out in Southern California as well.
03:05Total is 10.
03:06And we've seen a lot of runs so far between San Diego and L.A.
03:10The Dodgers won the first game of this midweek set against their divisional foes.
03:14First meeting this year between the Padres and the Dodgers in extra innings.
03:19It was San Diego providing basically all the offense yesterday, 11 runs to beat L.A.
03:2511 to one rubber match today.
03:28Dodgers, a road favorite around a dollar and a half price.
03:33Who takes that rubber match in the third and final game of this midweek series?
03:37Yeah, we're expecting runs because Vasquez is out there.
03:40He's usually the ex-fip king in the wrong direction.
03:42He has been decent over his past couple starts, though.
03:44But the fact of the matter is he can't get left-handed batters out and he doesn't strike anybody out.
03:48That's immediately where I go to on that lineup today, which after an embarrassing loss yesterday, afternoon game.
03:53Oh, it's just Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.
03:55He's not doing that today.
03:56So Shohei Ohtani's been hammering right-handed pitching.
03:58I'm taking him for an RBI.
04:00Freddie Freeman, the same deal.
04:01402 weighted on base percentage through his last 76 at-bats against right-handed pitchers.
04:06I like him on there.
04:07And also, Max Muncy, 79 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
04:10How about a 424 ISO and a 513 weighted on-base percentage?
04:1472 degrees out there in San Diego.
04:16Wind's blowing out close to double digits to right field, so they're advantageous.
04:20Lefty's getting around on that.
04:22Yes, I like left-handed batters today for the Dodgers going up against it.
04:25We'll probably get runs.
04:26Robleski, not a lot, Ben.
04:2810 innings pitched over the past month here.
04:29He's got an ERA that's decent, but a lineup coming in hot from last night for the Padres.
04:33We're probably getting runs.
04:34But for me, I want to focus on the left-handed batters for the Los Angeles Dodgers this afternoon.
04:40It's interesting to see Justin Robleski out there get the start for the Dodgers.
04:44And they're a dollar-and-a-half road favorite in San Diego.
04:47But, Donnie, just gave you the reasons why.
04:51Fork watch still firmly on for the Atlanta Braves.
04:54Donnie, we saw both Philadelphia and Atlanta
04:56stat long-losing skids to start off their midweek sets on Monday
05:00and then both squander the opportunity yesterday to start new wind streaks.
05:05We go to Milwaukee.
05:06Some day baseball between the Brew crew and the Braves.
05:09Atlanta with Spencer Schwellenbach on the bump is a favorite at minus 142.
05:15Total is eight.
05:16What do you like here between the Braves and the Brewers?
05:19Roofs and the windows will be open today in Milwaukee.
05:22Milwaukee, 83 degrees with 11-mile-an-hour wind blowing out to left field.
05:25Now, granted, it's a dome stadium.
05:26It opens up how much that wind is going to impact it.
05:28We don't know.
05:29But it's not going to hurt any conditions.
05:31And you should get some of that heat and humidity in the building.
05:34The question for the Atlanta Braves today is not,
05:36can Spencer Schwellenbach be effective on the mound?
05:38He has been effective, Ben.
05:39Last month here, 33-1 innings pitch.
05:42How about an ERA of 2.97 and a fantastic XFIP of 2.81?
05:46You may not have heard of Chad Patrick here.
05:4827-1 innings pitch for him for the Milwaukee Brewers over the past month.
05:51But how about a 2.30 ERA for him with that XFIP number a little bit higher, 3.93?
05:56So if I'm looking at the total at eight, I'm not sure we get the nine runs.
05:59I think Schwellenbach can hold that lineup down from Milwaukee.
06:02And then the Atlanta Braves, who just can't get out of their own way at the plate here,
06:06doing the same things last night that they've done over the past month,
06:09which is not scoring runs.
06:10Give me the under in this game.
06:11Just don't have any faith in that offensive lineup right now.
06:13Yeah, DRS last night, a single run for Atlanta.
06:18They had seven in the opener, but a lot of that was sparked in the fifth inning and later.
06:23The Braves have dropped 15 of their last 19.
06:26It is why they are on fork watch.
06:28They are 10 games sub 500.
06:30Had 28 and 38.
06:32The fork firmly in Atlanta at this moment.
06:35Let's head out to St. Louis, where DRS, one of the hottest teams in baseball,
06:41no longer the Redbirds, but the Toronto Blue Jays.
06:45Toronto looking for the sweep today under the arch against St. Louis,
06:49but the big lib, Matthew Liberatore, out there for St. Louis.
06:53Donnie's favorite MLB picture.
06:55Minus 138 now, that number in favor of the Cardinals.
07:00They're a home favorite, hoping to avoid that sweep against the Jays today.
07:03Total eight and a half.
07:04What do you like in the Lou?
07:06Yeah, I want to do a little bit more research a little, you know,
07:09a little bit earlier in this afternoon to take a look at some of these splits
07:11between Liberatore, because the reason I like that is you're right about this.
07:14Like the Blue Jays lineup, we were waiting like, hey,
07:16it's a decent lineup coming into the season.
07:18Hasn't hit.
07:19Take a look at their last 30 days, though.
07:21Excuse me, specifically against left-handed pitching.
07:23You take a look and say outside of George Springer,
07:25he's got a 252 weighted on base percentage.
07:27You want that number, Ben, 320 or higher in that range.
07:30Every other player, the lowest there after him is 309.
07:33We're talking about players, Ben, 377, 780, 586, 354, 399,
07:38Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 442, and Bo Bichette, 363.
07:42So if I'm getting, let's just say, eight out of the nine batters
07:44absolutely raking against left-handed pitching,
07:47and then throw in winds blowing out to left field at eight miles per hour
07:51and temperatures in the mid-80s,
07:54that's a lineup that I want to certainly try to get down with.
07:56Now, go to the other side here with St. Louis.
07:58Their lineup against Eric Lauer, who's not a great pitcher,
08:00not a big strikeout guy, typically him being a left-handed pitcher,
08:04there's going to be more right-handed batters in the lineup,
08:05and that's true.
08:06In the middle, Mason Wynn, Yvonne Herrera, Wilson Contreras,
08:10as well as Nolan Arenado, maybe opportunities there for hits.
08:13So for me, I see the eight and a half.
08:15I like the over nine, but I really like that lineup for Toronto here,
08:18which if some of those ex-fip splits add up for me with Libertor,
08:21I'm probably looking at a team photo for Toronto this afternoon
08:24and liking it a lot.
08:25Fifteen games today, eight during the afternoon hours
08:29in their specific ballpark, seven during those evening hours.
08:33The Blue Jays have won both of the first two games against the Cards.
08:37We got some afternoon baseball at Bush Stadium on this Wednesday.
08:41The Blue Jays have won both of these first two games by a single run.
08:44Toronto has won 11 of its last 13 as well.
08:4826-28 on May 27th, now 37-30, playing really good baseball as of this moment.
08:56Speaking of winning by a single run, by the way,
08:59Giants beat the Rockies yesterday 6-5 at Coors.
09:02San Francisco on a six-game win streak.
09:04We're all six of the victories in a row, all by just one run.
09:09The Giants a pretty hefty $2 favorite tonight at Coors Field
09:13with Robbie Ray on the bump.
09:15That in the evening hours, as is this one out at Coffman Stadium,
09:20the Royals playing host to the New York Yankees.
09:22Yesterday, the Yanks played in 10.
09:24Austin Wells had five ribbies.
09:26Aaron Judge hit a 469-foot home run for his 24th dinger of this year.
09:33The Yanks a road favorite once again in KC, minus 126.
09:37That price on the pinstripes total is nine.
09:41What do you like tonight in Coffman?
09:42I'll tell you, yesterday, you take a look at Noah Cameron.
09:45Boy, man, he's spinning that baseball left-handed pitcher.
09:48See what he does against the Yankees.
09:49They hammered yesterday in Kansas City.
09:52Now, today, 85-degree temperatures here, wind blowing out to left field.
09:55You absolutely have to love that.
09:56But another pedigree lefty, or should I say even more of a pedigree lefty,
09:59than Chris Bubich.
10:00He's been nothing short of spectacular.
10:02His last month, Ben, 27 in the third innings pitch.
10:04How about an ERA of under one and a sparkling XFIP number of 2.88?
10:09He struggled a slight amount with left-handed batters with weighted on base percentage and ISO.
10:14But that's only through his last 11 batters.
10:16On the season, he's been fine with left-handed pitching.
10:18But also, you're not going to get a ton of lefties in the lineup today,
10:21and the focus will be on the right-handed batters.
10:23If you just take a look at the last 30 days, Bubich has faced 90 right-handed batters.
10:27How about an 0-74 ISO against?
10:29How about a 1-98 weighted on base percentage and a 30% K rate against those right-handed bats?
10:34Which, you know, Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge all have high numbers here
10:38as right-handed batters against left-handed pitching over the past month.
10:41It's hard to say after the Yankees smashing yesterday a decent left-handed pitcher
10:45that why can't they just do it today?
10:47But I got to tell you, ebbs and flows, man.
10:48Probably looking at more of an under today because also, Clark Schmidt on the mound,
10:51his last 28 in the third innings pitched over the past month.
10:54How about a 3.53 XFIP number?
10:55Great hitting conditions, though, sometimes can overwhelm pitchers.
10:59I don't know, man.
11:00I think these pitchers hang around in this game, and maybe we do get an under.
11:02Total is 9, right?
11:05It's up there at least from a pregame standard,
11:07but you've got a pretty good pitching matchup with Clark Schmidt
11:10facing off against Chris Bubich on the other side for the Royals.
11:15Again, 15 games on this Wednesday, 8 during the day, 7 at night.
11:20We'll recap for it, all of it for you on a Thursday.
11:25Game 3 of the NBA Finals.
11:27Next.