- 6/5/2025
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00:00A lot of baseball on this Thursday around the major leagues.
00:05Oftentimes a Monday or a Thursday can be a little bit quiet.
00:09Getaway day on a Thursday, travel day on a Thursday to set the stage for those weekend sets.
00:15Donnie Wright side, with your beautiful baseball mind, what a great day to handicap the diamond.
00:21We've got 24 teams in action in 12 spots, making even a 13th game though,
00:27with a doubleheader set today in St. Louis after a postponement yesterday due to some gnarly weather
00:34between those I-70 rivals, the Redbirds and the Royals.
00:38We've got a series finale today in Atlanta as well.
00:41And of those 13 games, eight during the afternoon hours.
00:46Grant Holmes on the bump for the Braves, DRS, as Atlanta looks to get back to winning ways.
00:52And Atlanta looks to avoid a sweep during this homestand in the home set against the Arizona
00:59Diamondbacks.
01:00Now, they have been a favorite in each of the first two games of this series.
01:04They have lost both.
01:06They are a favorite today, despite Brandon Fott being on the other side for the Snakes.
01:12Total is nine.
01:13Atlanta nearly a dollar and a half favorite.
01:16That line even working on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
01:18As we speak, what's the play with some day baseball in the end?
01:23You can't lose this game today if you're Atlanta Brave.
01:2577 degree temperatures.
01:27You'd like to see that light wind blowing in.
01:28Not going to have any effect here on the two teams.
01:31But if we are understanding Brandon Fott, he's been a decent pitcher throughout his Major
01:34League Baseball career.
01:35But over the last 30 days, he's been an abomination on the mound at this point.
01:39You take a look here at 22 innings pitched over the past month.
01:42A 7.36 ERA and a 5.25 XFIP number.
01:46You take a look at two right-handed batters, who has faced 41 over the past month.
01:49That's a 3.33 ISO and a 3.81 weighted on base percentage.
01:53To lefties, a 1.70 ISO, which is okay.
01:55But a 3.57 elevated weighted on base percentage there.
01:58Doesn't strike a lot of batters out.
02:00And that's what should get him in trouble.
02:01Ronald Acuna, Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Marcel Ozuna.
02:05All elevated weighted on base percentages and ISO power numbers against right-handed pitching
02:09over the past month.
02:10If we flip it over and take a look at Grant Holmes, he's been decent here, especially against
02:14right-handed pitching.
02:15But here's the problem that we might run into today.
02:17If you look at just his overall statistics, Ben, over the past month, 30 and a third innings
02:21pitch.
02:22A 3.26 ERA, you like that.
02:243.47 XFIP number, you really like that.
02:26But where he has struggled and been a little bit leaky over the past 30 days has been against
02:30left-handed batters.
02:31Only a 17% strikeout rate and ISO power number of 257 against and a weighted on base percentage
02:36of 355.
02:38You know the lefties in that lineup today.
02:40Carroll, Marte, Perdomo, Naylor, Pavin Smith, Alec Thomas, and also Jose Herrera.
02:45You have a ton of lefties in that lineup.
02:47So we're probably looking at scoring runs.
02:49Two to one yesterday.
02:50Get out of town.
02:50We should see the exact opposite of that today, to be honest.
02:54And you see that total is up there.
02:56The Arizona Diamondbacks entered this series in Atlanta, dropping nine of their last 11.
03:01The Braves, as we shared at the end of rivalry weekend against the Red Sox, winning that series,
03:07were a game above .500, finally, for the first time this season.
03:11Since, with the two losses so far in this midweek set, the Braves have lost 10 of their
03:17last 13.
03:18There is not a lot of wiggle room.
03:20It might sound crazy with more than 100 games remaining.
03:23But Atlanta is already six games below .500.
03:27DRS at 27-33.
03:30A series continues this week in Toronto between the Blue Jays and the Phillies.
03:36Yesterday, Alejandro Kirk, the game-winning RBI in the home half of the ninth, walking
03:40it off for the Jays against the Fightins today.
03:43With Jesus Lizardo on the bump, Philadelphia, a slight road favorite up in the sixth.
03:49Chris Bassett on the other side.
03:51Total stands at eight.
03:52What's your baseball breakdown today in Toronto?
03:55Ah, it should be a good one today.
03:57By the way, us here in the United States, we say, what, Toronto?
04:01North of the border, they say Toronto, Ben.
04:03Toronto.
04:03How about that?
04:04Let's get on board and pronunciate it correctly here, as we love pronunciations.
04:07Never hit the second T, DRS.
04:09Never hit the second T.
04:12Toronto.
04:13That's what we like to say.
04:14Toronto.
04:15Tron.
04:15T-R-O-N.
04:16Toronto.
04:16Just leave it out at this point.
04:17But by the way, Jesus Lizardo on the mound.
04:20Revelation for the Philadelphia Phillies, Ben, to start the season, not a revelation right
04:24now.
04:24You take a look at his last 30 days.
04:25How about this?
04:26This is the interesting point.
04:27An ERA, Ben, close to six.
04:29Ooh, that's terrible, right?
04:30Through 28 and two-thirds innings pitch.
04:32But his XFIP number is only 3.26.
04:34This is a strikeout pitcher.
04:35You don't put the ball in play.
04:37You can't have bad things happen.
04:38However, left-handed pitcher, Jose Lizardo on the mound.
04:41Let's just take a look at the lineup today that we anticipate for Toronto.
04:44It's Bo Bichette in that leadoff spot.
04:47Not very good.
04:47After that, Guerrero.
04:49Good.
04:49Springer.
04:49Good.
04:50Kirk.
04:50Good.
04:50Barger.
04:51Good.
04:51Clement.
04:52Good.
04:52Schneider.
04:53Good.
04:53Straw.
04:53Good.
04:54Jimenez.
04:54Good.
04:54How about eight out of the nine batters with elevated weighted on base percentages against
04:58left-handed pitching over the past month?
05:01Flip it over to Philadelphia.
05:02You take a look at Chris Bassett.
05:03His numbers right now, not bad.
05:05Ninth overall in my card today, 26 and two-thirds innings pitch.
05:09He also has a high ERA like Lizardo, 5.06, but also a low XFIP number of 3.43.
05:16But Bryson Stott leading off, much like the roster I just talked about for Toronto here.
05:20Trey Turner elevated.
05:21Harper elevated.
05:22Schwerber elevated.
05:23Boehm elevated.
05:24Castellanos elevated.
05:25Marshawn elevated.
05:26And Brandon Marsh elevated here against right-handed pitching over the past month.
05:29So seven out of the nine batters with elevated weighted on base percentages here.
05:33Weather conditions not as warm as they were yesterday.
05:35Toronto.
05:36But again, Toronto only had three total runs in that game.
05:3968 degrees.
05:39Roof will probably be open.
05:41Maybe looking at runs here.
05:42If we take a look at the XFIP numbers, it tells you that batters might struggle a little
05:45bit.
05:46But those ERA numbers and the way the batters have presented themselves against lefty and
05:50righties comparative to these two teams, we'll probably get some runs today in Toronto.
05:55In where?
05:57Toronto.
05:59No.
06:00Toronto.
06:00Toronto.
06:01I thought we just went over there.
06:02Toronto.
06:02Anyway, the rubber match today in the Bronx.
06:05Yeah.
06:06No, you like Canada, but you don't like Canada?
06:09One of those two.
06:10I don't know.
06:11By the way, real quick, though.
06:12I tuned in to the Stanley Cup game, Ben, and I saw the Canadian national anthem.
06:17Were there boos for the U.S. anthem?
06:21I didn't see it.
06:21I tuned in right at puck drop.
06:23I did not see the pregame festivities.
06:25Yeah.
06:26I do not know.
06:27We'll confirm, though, during our commercial break.
06:29DRS, the rubber match today up in the Bronx between the Yankees and the Guardians.
06:34And with Max Fried on the hill, New York is a strong favorite.
06:37I mean, nearly a $3 minus money favorite at minus 275.
06:42The updated number, total eight and a half.
06:45Quickly, what's the play for the rubber match between the Yanks and the Guardians?
06:4881 degrees.
06:49The Bronx is burning tonight.
06:51Over five and a half at a plus money number.
06:53I think the Yanks get six runs tonight.
06:55Oh, for our guy Slade Ciccone.
06:56How about that for a quick handicap for you there?
06:59Perfect.
06:59We got to see some runs.
07:01At most, five total runs between these two teams in this series.
07:05The Yanks were blank last night.
07:07Somebody tell him New York is hot.
07:09I'm not even wearing my jacket.
07:11We'll continue breaking down the rest of this MLB slate on a Thursday.
07:15Up next.
07:17A couple of four-game finales today on the West Coast.
07:21First, inside Dodger Stadium.
07:22We've got some day baseball.
07:24A little bit after 1 p.m.
07:26Local there in L.A.
07:27The Dodgers and the Mets conclude their four-game set.
07:31The second and final NLCS rematch scheduled through this regular season
07:36between L.A. and New York.
07:38The Mets winning yesterday 6-1, courtesy of a couple of long home runs from Pete Alonzo.
07:43Two-run shot in the first.
07:45Three-run shot for some insurance in the eighth.
07:47The Mets have won two of three this week.
07:50The Mets won two of three DRS a few weekends ago against the Dodgers inside Citi Field.
07:56The Mets trying to win their second consecutive series in the NLCS rematch.
08:01As we get ready for some day baseball at the Ravine, it's the Dodgers and the Mets.
08:06Landon Knack gets the start for L.A.
08:09They're a minus-132 home money line favorite.
08:12Total nine and a half.
08:13The over has the juice.
08:15Will we see some offense this afternoon in Los Angeles?
08:19If we just look at, like, on paper at the two pitchers, like, it's hard to get 10 runs in Major League Baseball.
08:23It doesn't even matter if the pitchers are bad at that point, but also understand this.
08:26No marine layer typically in the afternoon in L.A.
08:28and 76-degree temperatures at first pitch with almost a double-digit wind blowing out to right center field.
08:34Great hitting conditions tonight.
08:35Yesterday, it took a couple home runs there from the Polar Bear to get that game at least to six runs from a Mets perspective.
08:41What happens if it doesn't hit home runs?
08:42Where are we at in that game?
08:43Is it one-to-one in extra innings?
08:45I think the game trends to the under.
08:47If you take a look at David Peterson, over the past 30 days, 131 batters he's faced,
08:51a 123 ISO against and a weighted-on-base percentage of 283, that's really good.
08:56Flip it over to the other side.
08:57Here's where some of the trouble might come in.
08:59Landon Knack on the season, 64 batters from the right-hand side he's faced.
09:03How about a 339 weighted-on, excuse me, a 339 ISO power number and a weighted-on-base percentage of 416?
09:08If we just go over the last 111 batters he's faced, and we include left-handed batters and right-handed batters,
09:14it's still a 233 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of 344.
09:17If we take a look at Knack on the card today, 27 pitchers that are listed.
09:21He's actually 13th on the card.
09:23Decent ERA, 3.71, 3.78 XF number.
09:26So the guys that are catching up are doing damage.
09:29Maybe he's getting just a little bit unlucky and also not a big strikeout pitcher particularly to right-handed bats.
09:35I look at it again today and say, you know what?
09:37The Mets are the better team today.
09:39Do I love them as much as I did last night?
09:40Not necessarily, but I'm not going to take the Dodgers at a favorite price point of minus 136.
09:45I'd lean towards the Mets at a plus-116 price, but even though it's good weather,
09:49sometimes you just look at that ballpark and say it's a pitcher's paradise typically here at night.
09:54That's not going to be the case today, but I still think we see under 10 runs in this game,
09:58and I give a nice little lean there to the New York Mets again.
10:01The RSS, we know, the odds always evaluate the Dodgers very optimistically.
10:06They have been booked as a favorite in all four games of this series if you include today's finale.
10:11So the Mets winning outright in two of the first three that has come as an underdog.
10:16The finale of another four games set in California, this one between divisional foes up by the bay in San Francisco.
10:23The Giants and the Padres, all three games so far this week have been decided by just a single run.
10:30The first two go to San Diego in 10 innings in each.
10:34Last night, the Giants returned the favor, dropping down 5-zip, rallying to score six straight to win 6-5.
10:42And the winner in the home half of the seventh, Jung-Hoo Lee, an RBI sack fly.
10:47Today, in that finale, will we see a split in favor of the Giants or a big series win in a four-game set for San Diego?
10:56The Giants a slight favorite at minus 118.
10:59Total stands now at 7.5.
11:02How does this series come to a close today in San Francisco?
11:05Look, if it's not broke, don't fix it here.
11:08Now, yesterday, they did get a lot of runs.
11:10The night before, not a lot of runs.
11:11I'm still going to sit with that trend where we're not going to see a lot of runs here.
11:14As I said, 27 total pitchers on the card today, a minimum of five innings pitched over the last 30 days.
11:19Take a look at this.
11:19Dylan Cease, number two on the card today.
11:22Now, he's 0-2 through 30 innings pitched over the past month with a 360 ERA, which is manageable.
11:26But how about his exit number?
11:282.22.
11:29That is astoundingly good.
11:30And then if you take a look at Robbie Ray, open up the season, like, this guy wasn't going to be long for Major League Baseball in 2025.
11:36It's really turned that corner.
11:3732 innings pitched for him over the past 30 days.
11:40How about a 169 ERA and a very manageable XFIP number of 3.13?
11:44Not a lot of love in those two lineups.
11:46Now, it is the afternoon, so the ball does travel a little bit further there in San Francisco.
11:49But not enough for me to take it over.
11:51More likely that we see eight runs or less?
11:53Absolutely.
11:54That's the way I go in this game between these two.
11:56Coin flip on the game.
11:57Two good pitchers out there, two lineups that I don't love so much.
12:00Why not just take the under again?
12:02Basically, a pick-em today by the Bay between the Giants and the Padres.
12:07Of course, San Francisco scoring six runs straight yesterday.
12:10First game for the Giants, snapping a 16-game skid of not scoring more than four runs.
12:17So the idea of offense at a premium is not anything new for SF.
12:23The Padres trail the Dodgers by a game.
12:25The Giants three games back in the National League West.
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