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00:00:00As we saw yesterday, tweets coming out, Aaron Judge has a flexor strain and his UCL is intact,
00:00:05which is great news, Aaron Boone said. He's going to be on the injured list, but the Yankees
00:00:09avoid the worst, which it's coming at a bad time. The Yankees are losing out right now to the
00:00:14Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees are fighting for the playoffs here. The MVP of the American League
00:00:19and probably not getting hurt this year would be the MVP once again. The Yankees season thrown
00:00:24into now a little bit of turmoil. So let's start here. The news coming down with Aaron Judge for
00:00:29you, Joe Ranieri. How did that hit? Yeah, it wasn't great. And as usual, you felt like
00:00:35you weren't getting the whole story, though, once we learned that he, you know, Saturday
00:00:39he wasn't in the lineup and we were originally told, oh, it was a rest day. They were giving
00:00:43him like rest. I'm like, why is he resting now? Like, what are we? He just got the all-star
00:00:48break. Like what rest? So, yeah, no. And then, of course, we learned later that, oh, there
00:00:53might be an arm issue. Listen, the good news is that the worst case scenario is not a
00:00:59reality here. So, which means you're going to have to, you know, you're going to have
00:01:03to make do without him for a little while. And even when he comes back, playing the field
00:01:08is likely not an option. That's fine. If you look at his Yankees lineup top to bottom
00:01:13here, and they showed it again yesterday, there is more than enough power and talent here to
00:01:18be able to hold the fork down with Aaron Judge for a couple of weeks. I mean, it's not the
00:01:23end of the world. It's the pitching that worries me more, Donnie, than Aaron Judge being
00:01:28on EIL. And then the question is, what are they going to do? They're not bringing up
00:01:31Seth Jones. They're not going to bring up this young guy who's bigger than Aaron, you
00:01:35know, than Judge. So, you know, it is what it is. Find some pitching at the break if you
00:01:42can do it and make a run and wait for him to come back. They got more than enough talent
00:01:46to be able to make a run and hold it down here.
00:01:49Yeah, we'll see also, because sometimes it's good to get those injuries before the trade deadline.
00:01:54We can sort of fortify the lineup just in case he's out a little bit more of an extended
00:01:57period of time. But the season ended today. The Yankees are in the playoff as the first
00:02:01wild card here ahead of the Boston Red Sox, as well as the Seattle Mariners and the Texas
00:02:05Rangers. Now, if they'll get heat, there's quality ball clubs behind them. So they can't certainly
00:02:08fall in the tank and expect to have a great season. But if you were asking what sort of
00:02:12injury you wouldn't mind Aaron Judge having right now, one that he can come back within 10
00:02:16days and be okay once he gets back into the lineup. Because you look at those statistics
00:02:19right there, 342 on the season, 37 bombs, 85 RBI, and an OPS of 1.160. Absolutely fantastic on
00:02:27this season. So outlook for you, Joe, and the Yankees. Not panic mode yet until we get
00:02:31more news in about 10 days?
00:02:33Yeah. Again, first of all, you're never replacing those numbers with anybody. So it's not happening.
00:02:39So it is, he's the MVP and you're not replacing a guy like him. However, you, you know, you've
00:02:47made some moves. You became better defensively. McMahon shows up yesterday with a big, you know,
00:02:52double to run double over there off of Wheeler to, you know, kind of get himself assimilated
00:02:58to the Yankees. They've made some defensive moves with Rosario so far. I think there'll
00:03:03be one or two more coming. The Yankees have more than enough to hold the fort down. Let's
00:03:08see where this goes in a couple of weeks with Aaron Rodgers. The bottom line is, as long
00:03:13as he can hit, Donnie, then that's all that matters, right? I mean, nobody, although he's
00:03:17been great defensively, but as long as he's in the lineup, I think that's all that matters
00:03:22here to the Yankees. Absolutely. If we take a look at the NDP race, cause it really has
00:03:26been heating up. It's always been Aaron judges award, but now we take a look and he's not
00:03:31even the favorite, but if you look at the statistics going back to back with these two guys, 37
00:03:35bombs for judge 41 bombs for rally, 86 RBI for Cal rally, 85 RBI for Aaron judge here. And
00:03:42the price point now is a minus one 25 for Cal, the big dumper rally here, Joe, do you agree
00:03:49that that should be the price point due to the uncertainty right now on Aaron judge?
00:03:54Yeah. But again, that could change in a heartbeat. So Aaron judge comes back in, uh, in 10 days
00:04:01or two weeks and then, okay, what happens if Cal rally doesn't end a home run between now
00:04:05and then, are we still thinking he's the, uh, the MVP? So listen, it's a great opportunity
00:04:10for Cal rally to actually run away with this over these next two weeks, but let's be realistic
00:04:15here. At some point, uh, you had to think he'd be coming back down to reality anyway,
00:04:20by the way, let me ask you this question too, because just a few short weeks ago, it feels like
00:04:26Aaron judge was hovering around minus 20,000 as an MVP for the American league. We now sit here and
00:04:32look at him at a plus 100. It's tough to bet when you have uncertainty, but whenever you get a minus
00:04:3720,000 to a guy that might miss 10 days and could come back and get hot in the month of August,
00:04:42are we buying on Aaron judge right now? Is that a shrewd move for you, Joe?
00:04:47Yeah. Again, you got a, the worst case scenario looks like is not going to be the case here. So
00:04:53I fully anticipate he'll be back in this lineup. And when he does, I'd much rather be holding an
00:04:59Aaron, uh, you know, a Aaron judge ticket at what plus money now than at the minus 800 that he was
00:05:06just a couple of weeks ago. Yeah. It's tough scene here too. And also some other guys might be
00:05:11able to creep back in like Tarek Skubel now down to 50 to one at some outlets, 45 to one to win MVP
00:05:15in the American league. Jose Ramirez probably not going to get there. The guardians, not a great
00:05:19season. Bobby with junior 110 to one, but here comes Nick Kurtz, man. Outrageous weekend that he
00:05:24had. He's 110 to one, but it does feel like it's rally it's judge. And if Cal Raleigh gets injured
00:05:30and judges out longer, maybe other guys creep into that landscape, but I don't know if it's going to
00:05:34have an effect, but it's just interesting to see the fluctuation of this market where one guy had this
00:05:39thing locked down a month ago. And now all of a sudden he's back to a plus 100. If we look at
00:05:43the home run market, cause that's probably going to determine a lot of this. We'll see where Aaron
00:05:46judge finishes up three 30, three 35, three 45, three 50, whatever that might be. But a lot of
00:05:52those answers come from via the home run. You look at Cal Raleigh on the season right now, 41 bombs to
00:05:58lead it. Oh, Johnny's got what? 38. Now judge 37 Suarez 36. And here comes Kyle Schwarber. If I asked you
00:06:04right now, is there a chance that Aaron judge is still able to surpass Cal Raleigh? If he comes
00:06:09back in 10 days, my answer, Joe, absolutely. He plays in wonderful hitting ballparks, Aaron judge
00:06:14Cal Raleigh playing one of the toughest ballparks as his home ballpark, even to hit home runs you Joe.
00:06:20Right. And we also already know the history with Aaron judge. So it really does at any particular point,
00:06:27uh, you, you know, that he has still got another, you know, 12 to 20 home runs possibly in him here.
00:06:35This is all uncharted territory for Cal Raleigh. And don't forget the more that pitchers see him,
00:06:40the more tape that there is on him, the less pitches he's going to get to hit. I, you know,
00:06:45this, there's a lot of unknowns with Cal Raleigh to expect him to be on track to hit what 70 home run.
00:06:51Like, what are we thinking is going to happen here, Donnie at the end of the day with him?
00:06:55Yeah. I would like to see what we had, like at the beginning of the season, again,
00:06:58who was supposed to have the most home runs. It probably was Aaron judge. So if we tell you right
00:07:03now, Cal Raleigh's got 41 home runs, Aaron judge has 37, which means he's four short, but now you're
00:07:08getting a 10 to one price here on Aaron judge to lead major league baseball in home runs. That's an
00:07:16absurd price. Cause if let's just say Joe, like he comes back and he has an elbow injury because I just
00:07:20can't throw, but it affects my swing. None at all. You're telling me he can't make up four or five,
00:07:24let's just say worst case scenario, like six home runs over two months here. That's a crazy good
00:07:30price here. And I don't know if I should wait on that 10 to one price or buy it now and say,
00:07:34Ooh, I actually hope Cal Raleigh hits two more home runs. Cause then Aaron judge goes to 18 to one.
00:07:38Then I want to jump in. Yeah. Well, it could very well. It could very well happen. The reality is over
00:07:44the next 10 days, Donnie, you know that Aaron judge won't be adding to his 37. So if Cal Raleigh adds,
00:07:50even just a couple, you're right. The odds are going to be much better here. As long as he doesn't
00:07:55hit 10, you know, a home run a day here and gets to 51 before judge is back. I think, I think you're
00:08:02going to be okay. I think that's a good game plan. I'll tell you what would be absolutely madness
00:08:07and insanity. If Eugenio Suarez, you see him at a 10 to one price here, just continues to rake and
00:08:12winds up like 58 bombs and takes down the actual award. And also if he's traded and continues to
00:08:18still do a lot of damage there, then you see Kyle Schwarber, man, waiting on the periphery here is
00:08:22just sitting on the outside at 36 bombs at a five to one price. You know, he plays in a great
00:08:27hitters ballpark, heat, humidity, the dog days of summer, maybe a chance there, but the home run
00:08:31race, man, up for grabs when we probably didn't think it would be Joe. I think it's hilarious too,
00:08:37because you have Otani and Schwarber. You have two leadoff guys in the top one, five or six and
00:08:42home runs and major league leadoff guys. Donnie, I mean, the game hasn't changed.
00:08:47Nah, games changed a lot. Brady Anderson, huh? Did he change the game way back in the day in the
00:08:51steroid era? Dropping 50 bombs as a leadoff hitter for Baltimore when the guy hit like seven a season
00:08:55before that. Crazy times out here, people. We'll continue with major league baseball deadlines this
00:09:00week. Talk about some of those players already on the move. Major league baseball, home run race
00:09:05injuries certainly stack up. And also, did you people know, look, we are, Thursday, nobody's
00:09:10looking at this from a major league baseball standpoint right now. It's more like football,
00:09:13football, football's back Thursday. But July 31st, which is Thursday, at 6 p.m., Joe, do you know
00:09:18what that is? That's the major league baseball trade deadline. That's when it closes right there,
00:09:226 p.m. this Thursday. Players will be on the move. Now, as we take a look at some of the trade
00:09:26trackers here, guys that were already on the move, you take a look at Ryan McMahon, Ahmed Rosario,
00:09:31Gregory Soto, Eric Fetty. Why he's on the move, I had no idea. But thank goodness, he's still in
00:09:36major league baseball. That's a perfect. Every fifth, they started at 8. And Randall Gritchuk.
00:09:40But let me ask you this question coming up on Thursday. So many times in the past when you
00:09:43didn't have the expanded wild card, right? Expanded wild card brings more cities in,
00:09:47more teams, more cheering, more important games down the stretch because more teams can make the
00:09:51playoffs. But in the past, as with parent, at this time of the year, when you were out of the
00:09:55playoff picture, it was like the top four teams in major league baseball got their pick of the other 25-plus
00:10:01franchises that they could just raid their organization and get their best players for
00:10:05prospects here. And it was always, as opposed to a seller's market, it was a buyer's market.
00:10:10Now we're seeing the ultimate seller's market where it's like, do you want Eugenio Suarez?
00:10:15I want your top three prospects where 15 years ago, like Eugenio Suarez goes for a middling single
00:10:20A prospect just to get him loose because I can't keep him because I can't pay him and I won't
00:10:24resign him next year, Joe. Talk to me about this year's deadline. And we're not seeing those
00:10:28monster names that typically are on the market because teams can't afford them for what the
00:10:33asking price is going to be. Yeah. Well, this is what major league baseball wanted, Donnie,
00:10:39didn't it? By expanding the playoffs, you've brought a whole, you've brought at least another
00:10:44half dozen teams into the conversation at this time of year, because even if you start looking
00:10:50down the board on the, you know, the wildcard standings here, there's still, you know, out
00:10:55in the American league, you still have plenty of opportunities for teams like Tampa, the
00:11:01guardians, Kansas city, the angels, they're only five and a half games back. The only team
00:11:06really out, I think is you go down to Baltimore and the athletics and what there's still a ton
00:11:12of baseball to be played. So that means what, you know, in years past those kinds of teams
00:11:18there that were four and a half, five games out at this point. Yeah, they were, they were
00:11:22sellers. We knew that that's not necessarily the case anymore here. There are some teams
00:11:28that got to make a decision like Kansas city sitting four games back. They're two games
00:11:32under 500, four games out of the wildcard, Donnie. And they are signing guys here as a small
00:11:38market. That's the big difference. And that's what major league baseball wanted. More teams now
00:11:44have some more, more decisions. It's not just as cut and dry. Like, Oh, we'll get them
00:11:48next year. No, you can good luck selling it to the fan base here with an opportunity of
00:11:52being four or five games out with over a month and a half to play here.
00:11:57No doubt about it. And by the way, take a look at some of these players that should be
00:12:01available or talks of them being available. And some teams might shut those trade talks
00:12:04down like a top 10 list. Eugenio Suarez, Joe Ryan of the Minnesota twins, McKenzie Gore,
00:12:10possibility for the Washington nationals cease for the Padres, which is crazy. Steven Kwan.
00:12:14We've heard those names. Jaron Duran seems like the Boston Red Sox here. Joe basically
00:12:18said, yeah, he was on the market, but no longer on the market. We'll maybe wait to do something
00:12:22in the off season because they feel they might be able to make the playoffs. Duran from Minnesota,
00:12:26who is a relief pitcher, Emmanuel class a relief pitcher for the guardians, Cade Smith,
00:12:30a relief pitcher for the guardians and Griffin Jackson relief pitcher for the Minnesota twins.
00:12:34We always see that, right? Typically teams like the four to five, their bullpens heading
00:12:38into a playoff run. Those are the most likely candidates to go, but we don't see the, Hey,
00:12:42Max Scherzer's being traded. Trey Turner's being traded. Juan Soto is going to get traded
00:12:45at the deadline at this point. Manny Machado, like we've seen in the past, like that doesn't
00:12:49look like it's going to happen. You can improve your team, but it also is a matter of some of
00:12:53these teams can't hold their players. Like the Arizona Diamondbacks can play chicken with whoever
00:12:57they want because the hottest commodity is Suarez, a guy that's hitting close to 40 bombs,
00:13:01basically 60% through the season. That's the type of players that people want to add. But also if they go,
00:13:08Oh, we're not getting them. They're not going to sign them next year. Like they have to trade this guy.
00:13:11Other teams know it, but they're asking for the moon and the stars. I'm wondering what that deal
00:13:15is going to look like come Thursday, 5.30 PM with a half hour left to go, Joe.
00:13:21Yeah. Well, listen, I mean, Arizona, to me, I don't know what they're doing. I, you know,
00:13:26this last weekend, Donnie, I mean, they got to be looking around. They, it started with Nailer,
00:13:32right? Being traded right off the bat. Randall Gritchick was actually removed from a game.
00:13:37He was traded over the, I think it was Friday night. So now you got to have guys. I mean,
00:13:43let's face it. These guys have families. They live in the cities. You in that locker room,
00:13:48you got a lot of dudes looking around at each other and going, was that Merrill Kelly's last
00:13:52game as a diamondback? Was that Zach Allen's last pitch? You know, they haven't scored a run.
00:13:57The next run they score will be the first one they've done in about a week here. So it's no wonder to me,
00:14:02Arizona to me is a fade team from here until third, until they figure out exactly what they're
00:14:09doing, but make no mistake about it. How is Suarez not gone at this point? Because he was the one guy
00:14:15that we kept hearing is he's never, he is absolutely not going to be a diamondback in another couple of
00:14:21days. Well, here we are on Monday, Donnie. We only got a couple of days left. What are we waiting for
00:14:25here? Are you sellers or are you buyers? What are we doing? It's a shame too. Cause that,
00:14:30that's one of my more fun teams to bet. Like the one through nine starting lineup was so good and
00:14:34so talented that I didn't care who won the game. Just put me up five or six runs, help me hit a
00:14:38total, help me hit an RBI prop. And that's going to go away. But also like Eugenio Suarez has been
00:14:42so good over the past month. It's almost like, Hey buddy, you're driving yourself out of the market
00:14:47for us. We just can't take an embarrassing haul back to trade you here. That chicken dance, as we said,
00:14:52coming up to the trade deadline will be fun. And the key there certainly is Eugenio Suarez. He pops
00:14:56another two home runs this week. I mean, my goodness. Like what is that asking offer going
00:15:00to be? Which we'll do a quick recap here. The world series odds, cause those will change once
00:15:04the deadline gets here. Other teams at the top of the standings, the Dodgers, the Phillies,
00:15:08the Mets and the Tigers, if they make moves that could be incremental and then moving forward
00:15:12or instrumental, I should say that moving forward, you could get those numbers changing. Now look at
00:15:16this. The lines that we see are the Mets eight, the one and the Phillies plus eight 50. They have flip
00:15:20flopped this morning where the Phillies now plus eight to one and the Mets plus eight 50. Is it still
00:15:25the Dodgers? And also Joe, should the Dodgers be a plus two 30? I just think the price is just too
00:15:29rich for the Dodgers right now. Yeah. Well, we, we talked about it last, what was over on Thursday or
00:15:35Friday, Donnie. And it was, it was plus one 65. It was some obnoxious number to win a national league
00:15:41pennant. I mean, at that price, you're basically saying nobody else should buy you don't buy or sell.
00:15:47It doesn't matter. You're not beating the Dodgers. Just let's see who they're going to play in the
00:15:50American league. And that is not the case. I think it's far from it there. And I do think
00:15:55there is some value across the board, American and national league. Yeah. It's, it's a wild price
00:16:01to see there specifically with how major league baseball has turned out a lot where the best
00:16:05teams don't even make it into the NLDS or let's say NLCS because they're getting knocked off earlier.
00:16:09If they're not the hot team coming in to those playoffs, we'll see what happens down the stretch,
00:16:13but the Dodgers certainly a heavy, heavy favorite right now. So as we continue to work our way
00:16:18through major league baseball, setting the stage for an interesting trade deadline,
00:16:22sports grids, what we do the morning, the early line, major league baseball. As we continue down
00:16:27this path and exciting week, overall teams are trying to separate themselves and figure out
00:16:31how are we going to work things into the equation? If we do need to add some talent here coming up
00:16:36over the next week here at the trade deadline, look at some of the scores from yesterday.
00:16:40Yankees beat the Phillies four to three, the Red Sox up and the Dodgers four to three there,
00:16:44which is great. I had that as my upset picker dog of the day. I should say yesterday on pro
00:16:48baseball today, that one worked out. The Reds knocked off the Rays, the Tigers, it feels like
00:16:52finally picked up a victory over the streaking Blue Jays, 10 to four. Interesting numbers on an
00:16:58interesting Sunday here as we move forward, but continues. How about those New York Metropolitans,
00:17:02Joe Ranieri, continue to win, extend their lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. That team's really
00:17:07taking shape right now. We'll see what Uncle Steve can buy them an extra arm at the deadline.
00:17:12Yeah, well, they're going to need to, because I still don't like that bullpen in any way,
00:17:17shape or form, but it was, no, it was a, it was a good weekend that they were able to get out of
00:17:22Citi Field, win some games on the road, which has been a problem of theirs to say the least here,
00:17:28Donnie. But, well, you know, it's the Giants who, you know, you and I can probably outscore the
00:17:33Giants here at this particular point, but they did a great job on it. And the Mets, and it's a two horse
00:17:40race. I don't know what else there, well, it's going to come down to these two. And they both have a ton
00:17:45of games against the National League East that remain, I believe, on the schedule. So it's going
00:17:50to come down to who, who gets it done late in the season. Another thing Major League Baseball was
00:17:55hoping for. How about this? The Oakland Athletics go to Houston and take care of business against the
00:18:02first place Houston Astros, coinciding with the Astros losing streak. How about a six game win streak
00:18:08for those Texas Rangers? My team that I picked to win the AL pennant before the season coming to life
00:18:14like a zombie right now, Joe. I love it. Let's go, Rangers.
00:18:17And all there, I mean, they're getting healthy. Jock Peterson now off the AL, Berger is back. So
00:18:24that entire lineup, the original lineup they were supposed to have, Donnie, that you bet on before
00:18:29the season started. They're all, they're all healthy. So, and they are playing some of their best
00:18:34baseball, even the bullpen. I mean, the pitching is stepping up too, as well. So yeah, Houston,
00:18:41I think is in trouble with all those injuries. They need to get healthy quickly. And before you
00:18:47know it, it could be too late because the Rangers could be in first place.
00:18:50Tons of guys on the IL there for Houston. They're still in first place here, but my goodness,
00:18:54finally, the Rangers under 500, five, six, seven, eight games. Can't get it together before we hit
00:18:59the all-star break. Still under 500 now, way above 500 and starting to put that bad boy in cruise
00:19:04control. I can't wait to see good things here for the Astros, excuse me, for the Rangers trying to
00:19:08track down the Astros in the month of August. Other news out there. We saw the hall of fame
00:19:12yesterday. Not a big hall of fame guy. I think it's always interesting too. Like, Hey, I, I don't
00:19:16know when you're supposed to put the hall of fame, but on a Sunday afternoon, everybody else is playing
00:19:20unless you get the super, super, super, superstar in there with each year old is, but they don't get
00:19:24retired a year after they retire. You get the point here. It takes some time off. Have you ever been
00:19:29to Cooperstown Joe before? Have you ever been to it up there? I do. I have been to Cooperstown. I
00:19:35have played at Cooperstown actually. I have played on their field and they, uh, yeah, they do baseball.
00:19:41Right. Uh, I, I hate the hall of fame, you know, no hall of fame without Barry bonds or Roger Clemens,
00:19:48I think is laughable. Uh, you know, it's the same hall of fame where apparently some lunatic, uh,
00:19:54gets the vote that each row shouldn't be a first ballot hall of famer is absolutely hilarious. So
00:20:00yeah, no, but the, uh, they love their baseball in upstate New York and Cooperstown. And, uh,
00:20:05if you're a baseball fan in any way, shape or form, you got to go.
00:20:09I'll tell you the one thing I always like, cause somebody messed up like Babe Ruth's,
00:20:13you know, induction years ago with a messed up ballot, then, you know, nobody can be a unanimous
00:20:18to say, I mean, get over it. Like baseball writers and baseball voters are the worst creatures.
00:20:22It seems like on the planet with how the way they do things like, how could you have each
00:20:26year on a ballot? And like, Hey, you know what? Just don't think he's the first time ballot type
00:20:29of guy. Like the, the nonsense that goes around is just hilarious. He did get in, but the fact
00:20:35that you have, Oh, unanimous, just stop the man's just put it like, don't even release it. Don't
00:20:38even release the statistics. Just say who got in and who didn't like the NFL. I don't think
00:20:42we ever hear about the final statistics on who got in the NFL. Do we, do we hear the final?
00:20:46We just hear about who gets in. Yep. Just who gets in, I believe. But again, you know,
00:20:52Rivera was the only one I believe that was unanimous. And even that is a feat because how you got all
00:20:59of these guys that have a vote to all be on the same page is amazing to me. But, you know, Mariano
00:21:04Rivera was the only guy. I think Jeter also was another guy that didn't get all the votes. One
00:21:09or two guys voted against him. Like, Oh, this process has got to change here. Cause you're right,
00:21:14Donnie. Nobody is more petty than, Oh, he didn't interview. He wouldn't let me interview him,
00:21:20you know, 10 years ago. Like what, like, what are we doing here? Ridiculous. Yeah.
00:21:25Oh, Barry was in his double locker. I tried to get a personal interview with him. Therefore,
00:21:30I'm not going to vote him in for a ballot and I'll make sure he might never ever get on the ballot.
00:21:34As I campaign here, tough scene overall. I'll tell you, he's going to be on that ballot. He
00:21:37keeps playing. That's Nick Kurtz. I mean, my goodness, Nick Kurtz coming up next.
00:21:41Fade the public. Stay tuned. So now's the time in the show, Joe Ranieri,
00:21:46that we like to reach back and ask the public, are we fading the public or not?
00:21:59Fade the public polls. We do each and every day right here on the sports grid network on the early
00:22:03line. We reach out and we ask the question to the people and how they respond. If we're going to fade
00:22:07or not fade the public, the question asked today at sports grid on X, who is the best bet to win
00:22:13American league MVP award? That's Aaron judge. That's Cal Rowley or other here. And no surprise,
00:22:2169% of the people voting for the big dumper. So I'm going to ask you first, Joe Ranieri,
00:22:27in your vote in this poll, which way did it go? Then I'm going to ask you some questions about it.
00:22:32Well, it's, it's Aaron judge for me, uh, just given the simple fact that he's on the IL and I
00:22:41think recency bias is playing a little bit of a role in your, uh, your public voting there, Donnie on
00:22:46this, uh, on this poll question, because yeah, Cal Raleigh just did 41 home runs, right? Fastest as a
00:22:53catcher switching again. It's a great story. The problem is Donnie, the minute the Yankees, uh, get
00:22:59judge back in that lineup. And yeah, he plays in New York, the New York media market. Cal Raleigh
00:23:06at a big dumper plays in Seattle. There is a world of difference between, uh, what, uh, what people
00:23:13are going to remember by the time it gets to voting and, uh, the Yankees and Aaron judge will always
00:23:19have that opportunity to be way more popular than Cal Raleigh in Seattle. It's interesting to look at
00:23:26too, because you know, you're so thought of like the preseason expectations into the month of April,
00:23:31May, like again, at May, June, early July, the minus 20,000 price pointing on Aaron judge before
00:23:37Cal Raleigh really started to get hot at that point does make a dent in my mind because I just wanted
00:23:41to vote quickly. Like when I see these polls, I'm like first instinct, go ahead and vote on it.
00:23:45I actually voted for Cal Raleigh along with the 69% of the other people voting on this poll,
00:23:49but I find myself looking at that saying, and the question I asked you previously was, boy,
00:23:53it's interesting to see Cal Raleigh as a favorite now to minus one 25. He's healthy right now. He's
00:23:57hitting home runs and maybe deservedly should get the benefit of the doubt. But then I look and say,
00:24:02well, you know, as an investor or a handicapper and buying low is what you want to do. You never
00:24:06want to buy high. Like, ah, you know what price points minus 20,000. I should get in now because
00:24:10that's free money at this point. Like, no, he's plus 100. Now talking about Aaron judge is now the
00:24:15time to buy on Aaron judge because even if it doesn't work out, Hey, I'm going to put a hundred bucks
00:24:20at minus 20,000, enjoy your pennies. But if you put a hundred bucks on a plus 100 and it wins,
00:24:25that's a hundred dollar return back. Buying low is always a key here. And I feel like,
00:24:30could we be getting any lower on Aaron judge from this moment, Joe? And would it be smart
00:24:34to maybe wait a few more days just to see if that price even increases?
00:24:38It'll be interesting because you're right. I mean, he will be out of sight, out of mind in 10 days.
00:24:43He won't be adding to any of those numbers yet. Cal Raleigh will be Donnie. And, uh, and who knows
00:24:49in 10 days before Aaron judge gets back, how many more home runs does he have 47? Does he have 45?
00:24:56Does he have 46? I mean, every time and not even a hit, but every time he hits a home run,
00:25:01you'll see that line move more in Cal Raleigh's favor. So I don't think the bottom has fallen out
00:25:07of the judge market yet. I think until he's back in that lineup, just wait, you'll have a perfect
00:25:14opportunity once he gets back. Now, let me ask you this question too, because I find this fascinating
00:25:19the way that you can approach in different angles that you have. You look at Cal Raleigh and say,
00:25:23okay, he's got a couple of home run lead over Aaron judge. Do you think Joe, and I ask you this
00:25:28question first and I'll set it up the winner of the home run, you know, basically for the home run title
00:25:34for the season, if you will, is that the MVP in the American league? Like Raleigh judge,
00:25:39whoever hits more home runs, that's the MVP. Uh, no, I don't, I don't think, uh, the home runs are
00:25:46going to have anything to do with it because it's, uh, let's, we all know, right. This is a popularity
00:25:51contest to begin with. Uh, so while it's great to have, but I think if you're going to have two guys
00:25:57that have hit 50 or more home runs, what, then you got to go to something else, right? It's one thing
00:26:03if, uh, one guy has 60 home runs, 55 home runs, and the other guy's got 38 and you're like, oh,
00:26:08well, there it is. There's your, if both guys are in the fifties or approaching 60 home runs on the
00:26:15season, then what's the other determining factor? Cause home runs is not it. Because I look at this
00:26:22and I think it's a fascinating way to bet it. Cause again, we're just looking at the American
00:26:24league, not Shohei Ohtani, not, uh, Kyle Schwab or Eugenio Suarez. If it's toe to toe and they're
00:26:29similar, right? So if we break it down and say, all right, well, Aaron judge, uh, hits one more
00:26:34home run than Cal rally. It's like, well, he didn't win the MVP, but you know what? That was
00:26:38a 10 to one price that you could have got on the home run for him hitting the most home runs in
00:26:42major league baseball, as opposed to a plus 100. Like for me, if I'm betting Aaron judge right now,
00:26:47Joe, I'm not betting the MVP. I'm just going to bet he hits the most home runs here in major league
00:26:51baseball. Because I think if he look, Schwarber's got 36, Eugenio Suarez has 36. If judge comes back in 10
00:26:57days, I still think judge holds those two guys off. And the same thing with Shohei Ohtani. I think
00:27:02if he is healthy, he can hold those guys there. So I just say to myself, I think he hits the most
00:27:07home runs in major league baseball. I want that 10 to one price. And I do think Joe, from my
00:27:10perspective, if he does lead major league baseball on home runs, I think that's the capper. Like if
00:27:15Kyle Rowley hits, I don't know, 280 and Aaron judge hits 330, that's a massive advantage for Aaron
00:27:19judge, but you're right. It is a popularity contest. How do we finish the season? Do the Mariners
00:27:23end up chasing down the Astros? Do the Yankees use this as a catalyst to surpass the
00:27:27Blue Jays? Again, there's a lot of things up in the air. It's just fun to see how many
00:27:31different betting markets you can tap into and maybe find a place that, you know what,
00:27:34there's more value on this side, Joe. Yeah, well, there is value on the board because you're
00:27:39getting Aaron judge at prices right now and could be even better while he's on the IL over these 10
00:27:46days than you ever thought possible here the entire season. So yeah, if you, you know, some question
00:27:52marks about when he comes back and, and what's it going to be, it looks like he's just going to be
00:27:57a DH if anything, right? Worst case scenario, he's just a DH. So he's still going to get his at-bats
00:28:03here with that lineup for the Yankees. They will still have priority on headlines and the most talked
00:28:10about team in the major league baseball will always be the New York Yankees. So does that play a role
00:28:15into whether or not Kyle Rowley will do enough in order to separate them? If nobody's talking about
00:28:20Kyle Rowley and everyone's talking about Aaron judge in the media, nice little slate of games
00:28:25here tonight for major league baseball, not taking off no five or six games here, a full slate. We're
00:28:30ready to get down to business and have some fun with this. And we have a battle of two first place
00:28:34teams or two teams, I should say in the NL central that want to be first place teams here. That's the
00:28:39Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers. If we take a look at the tail of the tape and the team
00:28:43comparison between these two, how about 62 wins for both of them? How about 43 losses for both of
00:28:50them? But the favorites to win the NL central still right now are the Chicago Cubs at a minus
00:28:54one 65 price and a plus one 40 price here for the Milwaukee Brewers. Let's start here before we
00:28:59handicap that game. Are we surprised that the Brewers are right back in this thing and the Cubs
00:29:03didn't run away? How about this? How about this central division? Yeah, I mean, absolutely
00:29:09unbelievable. And it's a great pitching battle here tonight, but the difference always was to me,
00:29:15the, and the Cubs were hitting the cover off the ball early in the season, right? That lineup with
00:29:22Tucker and company and pro Armstrong. I mean, my goodness, these guys were monsters. However,
00:29:28the more you looked at that team, you're like, um, you know, I like Boyd, but really I, you know,
00:29:34who are they going to, the pitching is questionable outside of Imanaga. And then you've got a bullpen where
00:29:40you're going, uh, meanwhile, you knew Woodruff was on his way back. You knew this kid, Mizorowski was
00:29:46just waiting in order to be able to get called up. And now you've got Peralta, Mizorowski, you've got
00:29:53what a unbelievable, uh, pitching staff and bullpen and Woodruff. And I mean, what a absolute
00:29:59pitching staff. Now you compare it out to the Cubs and who do you take in a short series with that
00:30:05pitching staff. To me, it's Milwaukee all day long. Yeah. I like it. I like what Milwaukee's got going
00:30:11on. By the way, if we look at this game, we'll line it up now, nine 53, nine 54 on the rotation
00:30:15seven 40 tonight. So you guys got some time though. Afternoon action today, Boyd versus Mizorowski.
00:30:19I'm going to get to those statistics in just a moment, but this line opened up overnight. Most
00:30:23outlets at eight and a half, that's not down to an eight this morning. So it takes nine runs to win it.
00:30:27Eight gets you a push. And if you like the under, you better get it at seven or less there for that
00:30:31victory. The side itself opened up overnight, roughly a pick them. It still sits really a pick them
00:30:35as you see that graphic right now, but take a look at this. Like Mizorowski's got 29 and a third
00:30:40innings pitch over the past 60 days, new call up to major league baseball, very good ERA 2.45.
00:30:45And that exit also fantastic at 2.81 because he strikes out a lot of guys, but I got to tell you,
00:30:50Matthew Boyd, 63 and a third innings pitch, Joe, over the past 60 days, a 1.14 ERA, a 361 exit number.
00:31:00It's a little bit higher because the strikeout differences there, maybe a little bit, two more
00:31:03walks. But sometimes we'll get Matthew Boyd's like, oh, he's just your everyday pitcher.
00:31:06He's got a one ERA over his last 60 innings, Joe. How are we getting to nine runs in this game
00:31:12tonight? Well, and he's, he's running something crazy. He's gone 23 consecutive scoreless innings
00:31:18that he has pitched. That is the longest active streak in major league baseball here. Unbelievable.
00:31:26So I watched that game in which he went seven and shut out the Kansas City Royals last week. I think
00:31:33it was Tuesday, in fact. So yeah, I mean, the guy has been on fire, but this is kind of an outlier
00:31:39season for Boyd. He's got all the things working for him right now and great. You know, sometimes I'd
00:31:45rather be lucky than good. Is it luck for Boyd? Is he in the right place at the right time?
00:31:51I still think pound for pound, Milwaukee is the better team and they got a pretty good pitcher
00:31:57on the mound tonight too, going up against them. Yeah. In Milwaukee, just take a look at some of
00:32:02his statistics over the past 30 days. Talking about Boyd, how about a 3.1 walk percentage?
00:32:06Fantastic. A K rate of 27%. How about an 043 ISO and a 184 weighted on base percentage against? He's
00:32:12been really, really good. Then you flip it over to the big Miz over there. He actually gets touched up a
00:32:17little bit by left-handed batters, but a strikeout rate combined between lefties and righties,
00:32:2138%. That gets you out of a lot of trouble if you can strike guys out. Oh, what does that mean,
00:32:26Donnie? Running on third with one out, get a strikeout as opposed to a fly ball sacrifice fly.
00:32:31It makes a big difference. So for me, I look at this game and say, I love that Cubs offense.
00:32:35And I do love Boyd. The Miz has been thrown, but also Joe, like what are we getting out of the Miz?
00:32:39We go more than four innings, four and a half innings tonight, relying on that bullpen. Those are the
00:32:43question marks that you have. Yeah. Well, I mean, the kid's only 23, right? In three and two thirds
00:32:49innings against Seattle, I believe also last Tuesday was his start. You know, he struck out
00:32:54seven in three and two thirds innings. He only threw 65 pitches, 64 pitches. And listen, they're
00:33:02going to monitor him because they realize I want this kid in the rotation come September when it
00:33:09matters for the postseason. I, you know, would they want to be able to stretch him down to that
00:33:14part of the season? You're not going to do that. If you just let him go out there, seven
00:33:18innings every time he's just not there yet at 23 years old, but I think they're doing the right
00:33:23thing. And by the way, who's had a better bullpen than Milwaukee's bullpen is a big reason as to why
00:33:28it is. They are tied for first place right now. San Diego superchargers. Well, used to be the
00:33:36superchargers. Now it's just the Padres in town to have fun with. We'll talk about this game next
00:33:40in New York Mets and the San Diego Padres, 957, 958 on your rotation, 940 tonight. Nice little night
00:33:46cap out here. Look at this side opened up overnight around a minus 145 price. We're down a lot. You see
00:33:51the graphic minus 124, minus 130s in the sports betting landscape here, a total which opened up at
00:33:56eight and a half. That also down to eight. The New York Mets head to San Diego for a pivotal series.
00:34:03Is Dylan Cease actually going to be a Padre by the time this game starts? I might cease to exist.
00:34:10We keep hearing all the time here that this is a guy that could very well be on the trade block and
00:34:17used as a piece to try and bolster this Padres team. And, you know, if anybody makes moves and
00:34:24crazy ones this time of year, it's usually the Padres and their general manager here. But
00:34:29are we stepping in front of the Mets? They played Sunday night baseball, did they not? And late,
00:34:36but they were already out on the West Coast playing the Giants. But you got the Padres. Where were they
00:34:43playing yesterday? Well, they had to fly home from St. Louis.
00:34:47Pots hammered somebody. Yeah. Pots hammered Louis.
00:34:51Who's worse off? I don't know. It's a wash.
00:34:52The Padres might be worse off. Yeah.
00:34:55That's what I'm thinking.
00:34:56Also, the Mets on the West Coast yesterday, they played Sunday night baseball. But was it
00:35:00really Sunday night baseball? Because it started at four o'clock in the afternoon. So maybe a little
00:35:04bit of an added advantage. But I thought you brought up a great thing here, Joe.
00:35:06So like Dylan Cease, if there are trade talks, teams are going to be like, don't you dare send
00:35:11him out tonight. And they're a favorite tonight. And I guarantee you this. If Cease is pulled from
00:35:15this game, the Mets will then turn to a favorite and you would be left with, oh, no. I thought I
00:35:20had Dylan Cease on the mound. It's no longer 10 years ago. It's like, hey, if the starter's not in
00:35:24there, all action is void at this point. So buyer beware of some of these pitchers trying to get
00:35:28their final starts in, not making their final starts. That could impact your bottom line. Good or more
00:35:34importantly, bad. If you took a favorite, that turns into an underdog because your pitcher is
00:35:38out. We're Major League Baseball coming up next right here on the Early Live.
00:35:43Los Angeles Dodgers, certainly going to be a hot topic here. They're the favorites to win the World
00:35:47Series. They're going to take on the Cincinnati Reds today. Joe Ranieri, 951, 952 on the rotation,
00:35:52a 7-10 start. Yamamoto's on the mound for those Dodgers going up against Chase Burns,
00:35:56the young flamethrower. Odds here overnight, minus 185 or higher for the Dodgers. That's not coming down.
00:36:02You see the graphic at 174. We're actually seeing as low as minus 150 in the marketplace,
00:36:06and a total which opened up overnight at nine and a half now sits at nine. People buying into
00:36:11Chase Burns. How about that, Joe? Yeah, well, be careful because if not Chase Burns, I'd be worried
00:36:18about. It's what lineup shows up for the Reds here, the one that can actually score runs or the one that
00:36:26just goes, they look like they can't hit water if they fell out of a boat. And that's the big thing.
00:36:31Usually when they play some more of the elite teams and an elite arm like Yamamoto, I'd be careful
00:36:39looking at the Reds to get anything done against the Dodgers here. I think it's actually a cheap
00:36:45price on the Dodgers. Is it not with Yamamoto on the mound? Yeah, you know, it's interesting too,
00:36:51because usually you think about these two teams and where they play in great American ballparks.
00:36:54It's like, just give me the over. I don't care what happens, but you're right. Like you look at the
00:36:57lineup on a day-to-day basis now for the Reds. It's like, what happened to all those hitters?
00:37:01Like nothing looks all that great. Then you look at the Dodgers and be like, okay, well,
00:37:05I got Otani. I got Will Smith. I might have Pahez and I have nothing left there. So you take a look
00:37:10at a guy like Chase Burns, which correct me if wrong, I don't think he's pitched against the
00:37:12Los Angeles Dodgers yet this year. We'll be throwing some heat at those guys, which maybe takes a round or
00:37:17two before they can certainly square up. 84 degree temperatures, which you like. Light wind blowing at the
00:37:22center field, which is okay. But if I find myself looking at Yamamoto's last 45 and a third
00:37:26innings, it's been pretty good. 3.38 ERA, 3.56 X fifth number. So I think you're right.
00:37:31I do give the edge to the Los Angeles Dodgers because I do think they're more talented,
00:37:34but I got to tell you, I love overs in games. I'm not feeling this over today in this game,
00:37:39Joe, if not. No, I am. I am not. And usually the great American ballpark delivers a ton of overs,
00:37:46especially this time of year. But look at what we got against Tampa Bay over the weekend. I think
00:37:53we got one over barely and the rest was just, nah, okay. It was a close one yesterday. It was a
00:38:00close one the day before for a little while. I don't trust the Reds bats enough against an elite
00:38:06starting pitcher like this to score enough. So I'm with you. The under is looking pretty good right
00:38:11now. I think it makes sense. Like, I don't think we get to 10 runs in that game. I just don't. If
00:38:15they do, oh, well, be it there. But I think Burns can have a good start, at least get through the
00:38:18first two rotations of that lineup. And then, of course, Yamamoto just being a veteran able to
00:38:24work around. Let's get to Detroit here, who finally got a victory yesterday. They're going
00:38:27to take on Arizona today. Rodriguez, the lefty, will be on the mound against Melton, the righty.
00:38:32971, 972 on the rotation. 640 start tonight. This line opened up overnight, right around a minus
00:38:37125 price. It's actually slightly higher at most outlets into the 130s. You take a look at the total
00:38:42here, opened up at nine, still sits at nine. The Arizona Diamondbacks, Joe, we'll start here first.
00:38:47A team that's looking to be sellers. Very hard to trust them when everybody's checking
00:38:52their phone in the locker room, whether or not they're even going to be there for the
00:38:55game later tonight. What's your feelings on Detroit and the cheap price at home going up
00:38:58against the Snakes? Well, I definitely think it is. Now's the time to sell on Arizona here.
00:39:06And I think now the time to buy on Detroit, who avoided getting swept by Toronto at home.
00:39:13But the bats finally came alive. Usually that means now they can move past that losing streak
00:39:20and kind of keep it going. Because if you look at the last three games of Arizona here,
00:39:26and yes, it was Pittsburgh, but they didn't score a run this weekend. And who can blame them? Because
00:39:31they have no idea who's going to be in that lineup and what guys are still going to be on the team
00:39:35here by the time the game starts. Yeah, look at the total, right? It's still sitting at nine,
00:39:40which means you need 10 runs. It's not exactly a great pitcher's ballpark. There are good
00:39:44temperatures there in Detroit today at 87 degrees, but a light wind that is blowing in from right
00:39:48field. If you just take a look at a snapshot for the Detroit Tigers who haven't been playing great
00:39:52baseball, you're getting some guys back into the lineup, which you like to see. But Kerry Carpenter,
00:39:56not listed in the anticipated lineup today, just returning back. They don't hit left-handed
00:40:00pitching all that well. And Eduardo Rodriguez is a lefty, not a great one, but he is a left-handed
00:40:04pitcher. You flip it over to Arizona, you go up against Troy Melton, which we only have 24 batters that
00:40:09he's faced this year in Major League Baseball and what we get out of him. But you're right.
00:40:12If you're struggling for Arizona now and you're still on the road and you're just checking over
00:40:16your shoulder, checking in with your agent every half inning, am I getting traded? Am I going to
00:40:20give the high fives to get out of here? It's a tough scene. So me being, once again, a guy that
00:40:24likes to play totals to the over, I'm not feeling the over here again, Joe. I don't know if we get 10
00:40:28runs tonight in this game. I don't think there's any reason to look at the over. I do think
00:40:33there's reason at a very cheap price to back the home team here. I think there's some value
00:40:39and a buy low spot, but there's no way I'd be looking at it over here.
00:40:44Yeah. Interesting one today in Detroit. We'll see how that one plays out and also who's going to be
00:40:48left, as we said, on that Diamondbacks roster and also Detroit. Can they hold off the Cleveland
00:40:52Guardians, which they better be able to do? Otherwise, one of the more historic collapses,
00:40:55it feels, in Major League Baseball. Let's keep moving here. More games to handicap. It's what we do
00:41:00right here on the early line. We once thought a first place team would be coming out of this next
00:41:06game that we're going to handicap. It's a 635 start. It's down in Baltimore. Yeah. Baltimore's
00:41:10in first place at this time of the year, taking on the Toronto Blue Jays, who we didn't have high
00:41:13expectations for. At least many pundits didn't. But now as we enter into the game tonight, 961,
00:41:18962 on the rotation, it is Toronto that's the first place team. It is Baltimore. That's the last place
00:41:24team here. How about that one? A slight favorite overnight for Toronto. Right now, Joe, it sits roughly as a
00:41:30pick them. Another nine and a half total from Baltimore today. But, boy, you want to talk
00:41:34about role reversals from what we saw at the end of March till right now. Toronto as the favorite.
00:41:39Zach Eflin's on the mound going up against Chris Bassett. Any thoughts for this game? And every
00:41:42game, it seems like we're doing nine and nine and a half. Runs are expected today, Joe.
00:41:48Yeah. Well, it's interesting, too. I mean, the Blue Jays, we're going to lose at some point. Right,
00:41:52guys? They weren't going to win every game the rest of the way, although they have been playing
00:41:57some great baseball. I mean, great baseball here. 18 of the last 22, I think, is what they ended up
00:42:05rattling off for wins there. Very good stuff. Bassett, very good at the Rogers Center. If
00:42:12you're going to bet against Bassett, you want to do it on the road here. But the problem is the Jays
00:42:16have won 12 of his last 16 starts, including, by the way, I believe the opening series versus
00:42:23the Orioles here. So he has been great in July, 2.39 ERA and five starts here. I can't. I mean,
00:42:32congratulations. You beat Colorado. All right, Baltimore. You too are a team where you might
00:42:38look around tonight and go, where's Mullen? Is he gone? Where is half that team could be on the
00:42:43trading block here and maybe wearing a different uniform come tomorrow. So I think it's a cheap price.
00:42:49I think it's worth a shot with the Blue Jays. Yeah, 90 degree temperatures down there at Camden
00:42:54Yard. Slight wind blowing in shouldn't affect it there. You look at that Toronto lineup. It just
00:42:58rakes and has done so for the past 30 days. A lot of plus batters in that lineup and not a lot of
00:43:03strikeouts, which is something you love. We'll see if they can get to Zac Eflin a little bit later on
00:43:07today. Another game we're going to talk about the New York Yankees taking on the Tampa Bay Rays.
00:43:12963-964 rotation number 705 start from New York tonight. Rasmussen, the right-handed pitcher,
00:43:17will be on the mound here for the Tampa Bay Rays and Schlittler on the mound, the right-handed
00:43:21pitcher, young right-handed pitcher for the New York Yankees. They're the favorite right now,
00:43:25the Yanks. You see that graphic about to pop up at a minus 120 price. It's actually higher
00:43:28throughout the marketplace now, as high as minus 133 and a total of eight and a half. The Yankees
00:43:34picked up a victory yesterday, lost Aaron Judge for 10 days, taking on Tampa, who's certainly cooled
00:43:39off at this point, it feels like. How do we feel about the Yankees and the Rays here tonight,
00:43:42Joe, from the Bronx? Yeah, I like the Yankees here. I agree with the line move. I like the win
00:43:49yesterday against Zach Wheeler, not just Philadelphia, avoiding the sweep at home.
00:43:55And yeah, I expect the Yankees to keep rolling. Tampa is another one of those teams, and I had said
00:44:00it, Donnie, this past week, and I thought it was very important for them because if the slide
00:44:06continued, because they have not been great since the All-Star break, and they weren't great going into
00:44:10the All-Star break, there could be a lot of different moves. The Rays could very well be
00:44:15sellers here as they've got a ton of contracts coming up and a new owner coming in. So this is a tough
00:44:21spot for the Rays. I like the Yankees and the rookie who has been great. I like them to be able to
00:44:27keep it rolling here and make it a little bit of a winning streak here finally. Yeah, the new nomads
00:44:34of Major League Baseball, Tampa Bay, don't really know who the owner is going to be, don't know where
00:44:37they're playing baseball to make the playoffs. Hey, maybe we can play at home, maybe we can play
00:44:40on the road. Just a tough scene here. It's a lot to worry about, which sometimes those
00:44:44extracurriculars that we talk about could be a positive. Ain't too many positives here in
00:44:48Tampa Bay right now. I'll tell you what could be positive. Runs tonight in Minnesota as we take
00:44:52a look at Boston taking on the Minnesota Twins. Fitz versus Woods-Richardson tonight. 965-966
00:44:58rotation number 740 start. A favorite here for Minnesota overnight. Around a minus 125 price.
00:45:03As you see the graphic, we're roughly around a pick-em right now, but a total that still stands
00:45:07strong at 9.5. If we look at Woods-Richardson, I'll tell you about this, Joe. When you're
00:45:11handicapping this game, Fitz and Richardson, analytically, we'll start here first. Richard
00:45:16Fitz, a 3.46 XFIP number, which is good, through only 17 innings. Simeon Woods-Richardson is at a
00:45:235.28, which is horrendous. That's last on the card today through 38 in the third innings. If you like
00:45:28ERA, how about this though? Fitz is at a 7.41 and Woods-Richardson is at a 3.29. Analytics versus the
00:45:36eyeball test tonight. Toe-to-toe in Minnesota, Joe. Well, is Byron Buxton playing for Minnesota?
00:45:45Because I do believe he had a MRI. He has some issue, I guess, with cartilage or rib cartilage
00:45:51or abdomen. I believe it came back negative, but yeah, shocker. Buxton heading back to maybe the IL
00:46:00here. Let's hope not. But I don't see any way in the world that you can actually look to back this
00:46:08Minnesota lineup here. Did you? I mean, they were awful against the Nats over the weekend here and
00:46:14just very little confidence. Another one of those teams that's sitting under 500, while yes, they're
00:46:20still technically in the wildcard race. Anybody really think that bullpen is not for sale right
00:46:26now? Because that's all we keep hearing, Donnie. Questions, questions, and questions. Don't trust
00:46:31Minnesota. I'll tell you what I don't question right now is that Red Sox lineup against right-handed
00:46:36pitching. Simeon Woods-Richardson over the past 30 days really struggling. It's K-Rate, you're only 16%.
00:46:40That gets you in trouble. How about a walk rate of 15%? So you're walking too many guys, not striking
00:46:44guys out. That could be damaging. And you take a look at the lineup for the Boston Red Sox. It's
00:46:48anticipated. I got one, two, three, four, five, six, seven plus batters in the lineup tonight. So maybe
00:46:54there are going to be runs anticipated, like the Sox yesterday picked up a victory against the
00:46:57Dodgers. Let's see if they can pick up another victory today against Woods-Richardson and the
00:47:01Minnesota Twins. Keep it moving down the line here. Let's head out to Los Angeles, the Texas Rangers,
00:47:06a team that we talked about on a win streak right now, looking to chase down their counterparts in
00:47:10Texas, the Houston Astros. They'll take on another AOS vote today, and that's the Los Angeles Angels,
00:47:15DeGrom versus Kohonowitz. This line opened up as a total of eight and a half, still sitting at eight
00:47:20and a half, but a heavy favorite towards Texas. You see that number at a minus 194 overnight.
00:47:25That was a minus 180. We're even touching minus 200s in the betting markets right now with Jacob
00:47:30DeGrom on the mound. Texas catching fire at the right time. Is this a walkaway victory tonight
00:47:35for those Texas Rangers? I don't even think it's close. I mean, Kohonowitz is being recalled from
00:47:40AAA Salt Lake to start this game. So that tells you how well things were going for him here. So yeah,
00:47:47no, I think this is not a train I want to get in front of with Texas now. They were one of the
00:47:53most profitable teams to the under, Donnie, all year long. But boy, oh boy, if you've watched this
00:47:59team over the last week or so, there's no more unders with this lineup and how well they are
00:48:04producing. And who's that guy on the mound for the Rangers tonight? What's his name? Oh, I think we've
00:48:11heard him before. Oh yeah. Is it DeGrom? Yeah, no, I'll take, uh, I'll lay the half a run in the
00:48:18first five with Texas. And, uh, I expect the bats, uh, to get to, uh, the angels before the angels
00:48:25get to DeGrom. Like, is this, we going back to like Harvey and DeGrom and Cinder guard on the mound
00:48:32here for the Mets. You know what I mean? I mean, come on, DeGrom is still pitching well, by the way,
00:48:35look at his statistics here, Joe. Nine starts over the past 60 days, 55 innings pitched. How
00:48:40about a 213 ERA and a 2.9 XFIP number? It is like he's back pitching to the best of his terms
00:48:46that he's been when he was in his prime and he's not in his prime right anymore. Certainly that's
00:48:50sort of helping that resurgence here for the Rangers. We take a look at Kohano, what's on the
00:48:53mound, not faring nearly as well. 33 and two thirds innings pitched over his last eight starts,
00:48:58775 ERA and an XFIP of 4.58. You do have a pitching mismatch. And also you take a look at these two
00:49:04teams. That's a big time mismatch for the Texas Rangers, but also at the same time, you're not
00:49:08getting a plus 100 price, not a coin flip. They're at close to a minus 200 here. Let me just ask you
00:49:13quickly here on the Rangers down the stretch, any buying in on them against the Astros, any buying
00:49:18in against the Mariners? Cause I really like what I see. And I think they have the frontline pitching
00:49:21with that lineup, which might be when healthy, the most talented in that division, they could do
00:49:27some damage here. Yep. I'm holding a ticket for them to win the West. And we got that about a
00:49:34month ago and it wasn't looking good for a little while, but coming out of the all-star break,
00:49:40this is exactly the lineup in the team. We thought they could be, and they're getting the pitching.
00:49:46So yeah, if you can get them, and I think you can still get them at a pretty decent price to win
00:49:50the American league West and absolutely worth a ticket. Not a big fan of that. You can get a full
00:49:56card on a major league baseball Monday. Love to absolutely see that sort of get you through that
00:50:00week. Cause as we wait for Thursday's trade deadline, some of those odds are going to be changing.
00:50:04If you're on the right side of those odds here and you pick the winners, where Suarez is going and
00:50:08where a couple of these relievers are going, you'll get a better price than you have on a Monday that
00:50:12you'll get on a Thursday and certainly post-trade deadline on a Friday. But Tom Vecchio is coming
00:50:17up next to help us out with more major league baseball right here on the Sports Grid Network.
00:50:20It's the early line. Big Monday right here on the network, the Sports Grid Network,
00:50:25Sirius XM channel 159. It's Donnie Wright's out here at show. We're nearly having some fun and
00:50:29talking to major league baseball, handicapping the car. But as we know, like the anticipation
00:50:33levels sort of ramp up, like we have the evolution, Joe, of the off season. Once the Super Bowl is
00:50:38over, we know we have college basketball. We know we have the NBA. We know we have major league
00:50:43baseball on the horizon, but there's something different, Joe, once we get the NFL on the
00:50:47horizon and the energy levels that get brought up.
00:50:49Yeah. And a lot more focus, too, here for a lot of folks come this next week, especially once they
00:50:57turn on the TV and they're like, oh, wait a minute, we got ourselves an NFL game. Like, well,
00:51:03wait a minute, is that NFL football? Yep, it's NFL football. I am looking forward to it. And training
00:51:09camps, I think, this next couple of weeks gives folks a lot of opportunity to get caught up with
00:51:15who's who, where's where, what coaches. A lot of intriguing questions and narratives coming up
00:51:20this season, too, in the NFL. No, it certainly isn't. By the way, are we buying in to the Cincinnati
00:51:26Bengals head coach, Zach Taylor, telling us they're going to play more in the preseason than they have
00:51:31in the past? Is that just coach speak? Or can we actually watch a decent product in the preseason?
00:51:36Yeah, I buy none of that, Donnie. There is no way Joe Burrow is going to be on the field for a lot
00:51:43of snaps in the preseason. Not going to happen. Ah, but I tell you who is going to be on the field
00:51:47for a lot of snaps in this preseason. It's Tom Vecchio joins us this morning on the early line
00:51:52to talk a little bit of Major League Baseball action. Tom Vecchio, how are we feeling today?
00:51:57I'm doing good. I think we're all set to go. We have a full slate of baseball. We're leading up
00:52:02into the trade deadline, which obviously we talked about yesterday, Donnie, with, you know,
00:52:06a lot of different things in terms of lines changing. How do you approach it? You just take some
00:52:09unders on hitters where it might be, but I'm ready to go. Vecchio lost his voice for a little
00:52:14bit, found his voice, and he's ready to spout off some winners here. Toronto, Baltimore. We just
00:52:19talked about this game a few moments ago where at the beginning of the season, you might have thought
00:52:23it was Baltimore in first place and Toronto probably being a sellers this week. The exact opposite.
00:52:27Toronto's playing great baseball right now. Roughly a pick them and a nine and a half. Great hitting
00:52:32conditions down in Camden Yards. What's your thought process today on that game between the Blue Jays
00:52:38and the Orioles? Yeah, it's great hitting conditions basically ever. It's a billion
00:52:43degrees. We're going to see the ball flying, but I do like the Blue Jays today getting the best team
00:52:48in the league. One of the best teams in the league against one of the worst teams in the league at
00:52:51close to even money. I like the hitters to come through for the Blue Jays, and I know they had a
00:52:56really slow go with things yesterday, but that was bound to happen. They win, what is it, you know,
00:53:0015 of their last 20 games, wherever it is, and they're scorching hot. Jack Flaherty is a good
00:53:04pitcher, right? And he kind of shut them down and took care of business for the most,
00:53:08hard, but when I'm looking at this matchup and I get an even close to even money price,
00:53:12Chris Bassett, I think, can neutralize a little bit of what the Orioles are good at. He's mainly
00:53:16a ground ball pitcher. He's not going to be dominating them with, you know, 8, 10 strikeouts,
00:53:20whatever it might be, but if you keep the ball down, the Blue Jays put the ball in play and get
00:53:24to a now depleted Orioles bullpen. As we know, they just traded Soto to the Mets, so give me the
00:53:29Blue Jays money line. Yeah, no idea on who's going to be still on this team for the Orioles, too,
00:53:35in the next couple of days, so that's going to be interesting as well, but we talked about it
00:53:40over the weekend, Tom. There is no more profitable team as a dog this year than the Miami Marlins. I
00:53:48can't even believe I'm saying it, but yes, and now they're on the road. They should have swept
00:53:53the Milwaukee Brewers, by the way, but they blew that game, lost it, but they, again, continue to
00:54:01impress, and now they're heading down to St. Louis, who also, from what we hear, could very well be
00:54:06sellers in the marketplace, so what are we thinking with this game tonight? You know, honestly, great
00:54:12season for the Marlins. They're, what is it, an MLB best with 12 and 3 over their last 15, whatever
00:54:17it is. They're constantly winning as underdogs. I think their money line is totally fine today,
00:54:20but I want to turn to Edward Cabrera, over four and a half strikeouts. It's sitting at minus 130.
00:54:25Looking back at his recent game log, he's consistently pushing to five,
00:54:28six strikeouts in a lot of these recent outings. The Cardinals are not a team I'm truly worried
00:54:33about overall. There's been talks that Brendan Donovan, one of their top hitters, could be
00:54:37potentially on the move. The Dodgers, of course, have interest in a player like this that can get
00:54:41at the top of the lineup, so we're going to see a depleted lineup for not just the Cardinals,
00:54:45but a lot of these teams over. I'm going to trust a strong pitcher on the other side. He comes with a
00:54:4924.9% strike average. Like, give me the upside from a pitcher against a team that's, yeah, we could say
00:54:55that the Marlins may not be in it, but the Cardinals look to be more sellers from
00:54:58a hitting perspective compared to the Marlins. You'll see what happens in a couple of those
00:55:02ballgames tonight, but also the biggest issue today would be the New York Yankees, and also
00:55:06what are they going to do without Aaron Judge for at least the next 10 days, and what happens after
00:55:10that? You see Aaron Judge's statistics on the season, 342 batting average. You take a look at
00:55:1437 bombs, 85 RBI on the season. Are you worried, Tom Vecchio, about Aaron Judge, or when you compare
00:55:22him in the MVP race, you might be getting a great price now on Aaron Judge?
00:55:27Yeah, so here's what it comes down to. If the season were to end today, like Cal Raleigh, and
00:55:33even if the season goes on, like Cal Raleigh's going to end the season, I think, with more home
00:55:36runs compared to Aaron Judge. I think that's very fair to say, but after home runs, Aaron Judge
00:55:41basically has every other stat that you possibly want. He's going to have five-plus home runs,
00:55:45whatever it is, and he's also going to bat 330 or 340. Like, Cal Raleigh's not going to touch
00:55:49batting 330. So, yeah, he has a ton of home runs, but Judge is better in every other category
00:55:55that we possibly look at. Now, I understand that there's a positional argument to be made
00:55:59saying Cal Raleigh is breaking catcher records, the most home runs by a catcher. Like, this
00:56:04is not something that we generally see, and the argument I was trying to make to Scott and
00:56:07George yesterday is like, what is the comparison for this? Like, if Brock Bowers leads the season
00:56:13in receiving, like, can we make the argument that he is the MVP of the league? Like, oh, tight
00:56:17ends never do this, but he's really not still the best in every other area if Jamar Chase
00:56:22or Justin Jefferson were going to do the same thing. So, I think it's a similar thing where
00:56:25all the other stats are favoring Aaron Judge, but the numbers and the games played are going
00:56:30to be siding with Cal Raleigh.
00:56:32Hmm. Wow. So, does that mean you like the Yankees to roll over Tampa tonight, I'm hoping?
00:56:39That's certainly a tough thing. The pitching matchup, I think, is a lot closer than people
00:56:44realize, but, you know, at this point, I'm actually looking to fade the Yankees a good
00:56:49amount if we're going to be getting decent prices on the opposing team, and a part of
00:56:54me still wants to take a piece of my Yankees to miss the playoffs.
00:56:58Ooh. How about this? Let's take a piece of your prop bets tonight here. You got two of
00:57:01them on the board, Tom. Let the people know once again where exactly we're going tonight
00:57:04on those props.
00:57:05Blue Jays' money line, they bounce back after a loss. Zach Affleck is terrible. Ball's going
00:57:10to be flying and really like over four and a half strikes. He's been crushing it for
00:57:16the Marlins going up against a potentially depleted Cardinals lineup.
00:57:20Runs, runs, and more runs is what we like to see. A lot of these games that we went over,
00:57:25Tom Becchio, nine and a half, nines in the atmosphere. We love to see that. Give me 85,
00:57:2990, 95 degree temperatures inside of those ballparks to some questionable pitchers. Yeah,
00:57:34we love to see. You know, we love to see Tom Becchio on the sports grid right here with
00:57:37us on the early line. Joe and Donnie close it down next on the early line. Energized for a new week.
00:57:44That's how we do it here on the sports grid network. It's rise and grind. It's time to have
00:57:48fun. It's time to get the information out to the people. It's Joe Renier. It's Donnie right side.
00:57:51But before we get out of here today, we like to get the people just a little bit more money in
00:57:56their pocket. It's bye, bye, bye. Oh, bye, bye, bye. Nice little stinger here on a Monday, Joe.
00:58:09Before we go bye, bye, bye. Tell us about a play maybe that the people should be bye,
00:58:13bye, buying to put more money in their back pocket today. Where are we going with this action?
00:58:17Listen, I know. Oh, poor Aaron Judge. The Yankees can't win without him. Well,
00:58:24they're going to win tonight without him. I can assure you of that here. Love what this
00:58:30Yankees team and that win yesterday did for them. I think they can roll that over into here. They got
00:58:36some new pieces. They're a little bit better defensively now. And quite honestly, it was
00:58:41good to see Devin Williams actually get a save yesterday without everybody sweating it out
00:58:46because he walked the bases loaded. But Tampa is the real fade here. And simply put, I mean,
00:58:53when you look at what this team has done over the last month, it is not good. I mean, Donnie,
00:58:58they were one of the best teams in Major League Baseball, right? I mean, my goodness, they went 25
00:59:04and nine from the middle of May to middle of June. But you know what? There's seven and 18 in their last
00:59:1025. They're what? 500 for the first time since the middle of May. I'm not buying it. They lost
00:59:18Brandon Lowe to the IL and all of a sudden they can't hit and they can't score any more runs.
00:59:22Love the Yankees at this price with the rookie on the mound. I'll back them at home at a really,
00:59:29really cheap price.
00:59:30Let's ride a streak here. I'm going to hit it with the Texas Rangers here. I'm going to go team total
00:59:35over four and a half at a minus 145 price. Reason being, if you look at that win streak,
00:59:39which is now over six games, started with the athletics, seven to two victory, six to two
00:59:43victory. The load mark was the two to one victory over the athletics. Then they took on the Braves,
00:59:47eight to three winners, six to five winner, eight to one winner. What are we noticing there? A lot of
00:59:51runs being scored outside of that one game with two, six of seven games, that four and a half
00:59:55would cash. We're going to go ahead and take the Texas Rangers today. Corey Seager and the boys
00:59:59going up against Gohanowitz, who's a slippery pitcher here. Doesn't allow a lot of fly balls,
01:00:04but he doesn't strike out a lot of batters. And I think they're going to have some damage today
01:00:07at the plate from the Texas Rangers. So how about that? Two ways to look at it. Yankees money line
01:00:11today, Texas Rangers here, team total over four and a half, two American league teams as we get after
01:00:16today and have some fun and a full major league baseball card today.
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